西南区域中尺度数值模式预报性能及其与天气过程关系初探

本文以探空站和自动站实测资料为检验参考,通过主客观检验GRAPES和WRF模式在西南地区的初始分析场和预报场,一定程度揭示出模式在西南地区的初值质量、动力框架性能和降水参数化效果。GRAPES在西南地区的位势高度、风速、风向初值质量都不同程度好于WRF,但进入预报阶段,GRAPES位势高度、温度均方根误差以比WRF更高的斜率随时效增长,GRAPES对西南地区的500 hPa高度场预报呈现系统性偏低,而WRF对西南地区高度预报的正误差概率比较高;分类天气过程检验表明,GRAPES对低涡、切变过程的初始分析质量好于WRF,但进入预报阶段,WRF对低槽、低涡和切变三类天气过程的低值系统预报正确率都高于GRAPES,这一定程度反映出WRF的模式性能好于GRAPES;分类天气过程降水预报检验表明,低涡过程降水预报难于低槽过程。GRAPES对低涡过程的降水预报能力较低,WRF预报能力最低的是切变过程。这与模式对分类天气过程中低值系统预报能力一致,这一定程度表明两个模式的降水参数化效果水平相当。     

Comparison of the Ability of ARIMA,WNN and SVM Models for Drought Forecasting in the Sanjiang Plain,China

Natural Resources Research - Drought is a natural disaster that profoundly impacts all parts of the environment. Drought forecasting could provide technical support for drought risk prevention....     

格尔木水井水氡测值异常与地震活动的关系

根据格尔木台观测井的水文地质条件、水氡观测存在的主要干扰因素和年动态变化特征等方面因素,对格尔木地震台水井的水氡观测出现的趋势、突变异常进行了分析。结果表明,格尔木水氡趋势变化与气温有关、水氡突降与流量变化有关,更重要的是存在与格尔木水文地质条件有关的信息,反映了岩石应力—应变、区域构造和地震活动的相关信息。     

土地整治项目科技化管理的探索研究

目前,国内土地整治项目管理工作已趋入正规化,各项制度建设较为完善,但普遍存在项目规划设计调查不充分,实施难以有效监管,设计目标完成情况难以落实,档案管理难以规范等不足之处。为转变传统的土地整治低效管理模式,提高管理效率,实现项目管理模式的专业化、精准化、高效化。基于"互联网+"与地理信息系统技术,创新土地整治项目管理模式,在国内首次开发了包含移动巡查填报、移动端采集监管、土地综合项目巡查监管展示和土地综合项目动态监管四大功能模块的土地综合项目动态监管系统,突破了办公环境的限制,实时传输项目的信息,接受社会的广泛监督,减少人工作业条件下的人为干扰因素,科学考核土地整治工作,实现对土地整治项目的高效监管,促进土地资源保护和合理利用。     

P507负载泡塑分离ICPMs测定地质样品中的痕量银

结合前人研究工作,利用P507可有效分离银ICPMS测定的Zr,Nb等干扰元素,对P507负载泡塑分离ICPMs测定地质样品中的痕量银进一步验证讨论,以便该方法在行业内领域得以广泛应用,促进行业内地质样品中Ag及微量元素测试的效率与测试技术的提高,实现地质样品中痕量银及微量元素ICPMS同步快速准确分析。     

智利艾斯康迪达铜矿床地质特征与成矿模式

艾斯康迪达矿床是位于智利北部安第斯铜矿带的世界第三大斑岩型铜矿床,铜储量3156.7×104t,其形成主要与始新世晚期—渐新世的石英二长岩-花岗闪长斑岩岩株有关,构造上受多梅科断层系统的控制。该矿床拥有典型斑岩型铜钼矿床的热液蚀变类型,包括钾长石化、黑云母化、石英-绿泥石-绢云母化、泥化与青磐岩化。与成矿有关的侵入岩年龄在38Ma左右,辉钼矿Re-Os年龄为36.1~33.7Ma。流体包裹体特征表明,该区域矿床成矿热液分为早期高温的岩浆热液和晚期岩浆热液与地下水混合的低温低盐度热液2期。高场强元素的负异常、稀土元素La/Yb值特征与Sr-Nd同位素比值特征表明,成矿斑岩是混入少量壳源物质的幔源岩浆演化来的。形成于南北向多梅科断层与北西向线性构造交会位置的转换拉伸环境,对艾斯康迪达矿床成矿斑岩的侵位具有关键性作用。     

Activity Features and Slip Rate of the Lingwu Fault in Late Quaternary

The I ingwu fault is in the eastern boundary of the southern section of Yinchuan graben. It hasa close relation to seismicity in the Lingwu-Wuzhong region.Few researches have been done.In this Paper,on the basis of tee data obtained from field investigation,the activity features inLate Quaternary have been discussed.The vertical displacement and its slip rate have been alsoestimated.The fault is 48km in length,being divided into 3 segments according to geologicaland topographical characteristics.The last rupture along its northern and middle segments wasoccurred in late of Late Pleistocene or early Holocene while that along the southern segmentwas occurred in midle Holocene.The vertical slip rate is estimated as 0.23～025mm/a sinceabout 66ka B.P.based on the vertical displacements of terracesⅠ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ and their ages.     

阿尔金北缘尧勒萨依片麻岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄、地球化学特征及其地质意义

阿尔金北缘尧勒萨依片麻岩分布于尧勒萨依河中下游,主要岩性为黑云二长花岗片麻岩.为确定该地区侵入岩形成时代、成因和构造背景,本文对其进行了岩石学、锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学研究.研究区花岗岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年显示,其形成年龄为927±3 Ma,时代为新元古代早期青白口纪.其具高硅(SiO2=71％～73...     

Modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation by Freshwater Flux and Salinity Variability in the Tropical Pacific

The El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modulated by many factors; most previous studies have emphasized the roles of wind stress and heat flux in the tropical Pacific. Freshwater flux (FWF) is another environmental forcing to the ocean; its effect and the related ocean salinity variability in the ENSO region have been of increased interest recently. Currently, accurate quantifications of the FWF roles in the climate remain challenging; the related observations and coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling involve large elements of uncertainty. In this study, we utilized satellite-based data to represent FWF-induced feedback in the tropical Pacific climate system; we then incorporated these data into a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HCM) to quantify its effects on ENSO. A new mechanism was revealed by which interannual FWF forcing modulates ENSO in a significant way. As a direct forcing, FWF exerts a significant influence on the ocean through sea surface salinity (SSS) and buoyancy flux (Q B ) in the western-central tropical Pacific. The SSS perturbations directly induced by ENSO-related interannual FWF variability affect the stability and mixing in the upper ocean. At the same time, the ENSO-induced FWF has a compensating effect on heat flux, acting to reduce interannual Q B variability during ENSO cycles. These FWF-induced processes in the ocean tend to modulate the vertical mixing and entrainment in the upper ocean, enhancing cooling during La Nin a and enhancing warming during El Nin o, respectively. The interannual FWF forcing-induced positive feedback acts to enhance ENSO amplitude and lengthen its time scales in the tropical Pacific coupled climate system.     

玉树7.1级地震震情跟踪工作的总结分析

介绍了玉树7.1级地震震情跟踪过程中,数字地震观测资料的应用情况,发现数字地震资料的运用可以为震后趋势判定提供参考依据。