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61.
We interpret the puzzling-ray bursts as emitted by cooling sparks from the surface of spasmodically accreting, old neutron stars. Their spiky, anisotropic radiation is oriented w.r.t. the galactic disk via interstellar accretion, whose orbital angular momentum tends to counteralign with the galactic spin; in this way, larger source numbers in directions of the galactic disk are compensated by smaller beaming probabilities, resulting in a near-isotropic arrival distribution, as observed by BATSE. The source distances range between 10 pc and 500 pc. Their radiated energies are of order 1035 erg, corresponding to accreted clumps (blades) of typical mass 1015 g per burst. Magnetic surface field strengths range between 1010 and 1012 G, somewhat weaker than those of newborn neutron stars. 相似文献
62.
Many applied dispersion models require the knowledge of boundary-layer parameters such as sensible heat flux,Q
H
, friction velocity,u
*, and turbulent energy components, w and
v
. Formulas are suggested for calculating these parameters over a wide variety of types of ground surfaces, based on simple observations of wind speed near the ground and fractional cloud cover, and specification of constants such as roughness length, albedo, and soil moisture availability. Observations ofu
*,Q
H
,
w
, and
v
during field experiments in St. Louis and Indianapolis are used to test the formulas for urban sites. Relative errors of about ±20% in the predictions are seen to occur whenu
*,Q
H
,
w
, and
v
are large. However, when these quantities are small (e.g.,u
* < 0.2 m/s), the errors in the predictions are as large as the mean value of the quantity itself.In addition, it is concluded from studies of available field data and theories that the magnitude of
w
is not well-known at elevations above about 100m during the late afternoon and night. Some simple parameterizations for
w
. are suggested that are consistent with the observed steady decrease in ground-level concentration in the afternoon and the sudden increase in concentration that can occur a few hours after sunset due to wind shears associated with a low-level jet, for continuous plumes emitted from moderate to tall stacks. 相似文献
63.
64.
The Menilite Shales (Oligocene) of the Polish Carpathians are the source of low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt and some high-sulfur oils in the Carpathian Foredeep. These oil occurrences indicate that the high-sulfur oils in the Foredeep were generated and expelled before major thrusting and the low-sulfur oils in the thrust belt were generated and expelled during or after major thrusting. Two distinct organic facies have been observed in the Menilite Shales. One organic facies has a high clastic sediment input and contains Type-II kerogen. The other organic facies has a lower clastic sediment input and contains Type-IIS kerogen. Representative samples of both organic facies were used to determine kinetic parameters for immiscible oil generation by isothermal hydrous pyrolysis and S2 generation by non-isothermal open-system pyrolysis. The derived kinetic parameters showed that timing of S2 generation was not as different between the Type-IIS and -II kerogen based on open-system pyrolysis as compared with immiscible oil generation based on hydrous pyrolysis. Applying these kinetic parameters to a burial history in the Skole unit showed that some expelled oil would have been generated from the organic facies with Type-IIS kerogen before major thrusting with the hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters but not with the open-system pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The inability of open-system pyrolysis to determine earlier petroleum generation from Type-IIS kerogen is attributed to the large polar-rich bitumen component in S2 generation, rapid loss of sulfur free-radical initiators in the open system, and diminished radical selectivity and rate constant differences at higher temperatures. Hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters are determined in the presence of water at lower temperatures in a closed system, which allows differentiation of bitumen and oil generation, interaction of free-radical initiators, greater radical selectivity, and more distinguishable rate constants as would occur during natural maturation. Kinetic parameters derived from hydrous pyrolysis show good correlations with one another (compensation effect) and kerogen organic-sulfur contents. These correlations allow for indirect determination of hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters on the basis of the organic-sulfur mole fraction of an immature Type-II or -IIS kerogen. 相似文献
65.
Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems. 相似文献
66.
Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water
storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then
presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery
pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information
System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery
pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility
analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes
having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters
such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The
discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed
by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant. 相似文献
67.
Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which
makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization
of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary
to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms
for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model
appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the
random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions
correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they
are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates. 相似文献
68.
69.
A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a
damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations
of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide
a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect
the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate
the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential
hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms
of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground
motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account
in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based
on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for
emergency response. 相似文献
70.
采用共轭剪节理应力反演方法,恢复了邯郸-峰峰矿区晚古生代以来的3期古构造应力场,进而探讨了煤田构造的演化历史,将其分为4大阶段:①中生代早期近NS向挤压,煤系后期改造初动期;②中生代晚期SE-NW向挤压,奠定煤田构造格架的基础;③中生代末至古近纪NW-SE向拉张,煤田构造格架定型;④新近纪以来近东西向拉张,煤田构造的现代活动. 相似文献