Rain-induced landslides are recognized as one of the most catastrophic hazards on hilly terrains. To develop strategies for landslide risk assessment and management, it is necessary to estimate not only the rainfall threshold for the initiation of landslides, but also the likely magnitudes of landslides triggered by a storm of a given intensity. In this study, the frequency distributions of both open hillside landslides and channelized debris flows in Hong Kong are established on the basis of the Enhanced Natural Terrain Landslide Inventory (ENTLI) with 19,763 records in Hong Kong up to 2013. The landslide magnitudes are measured in terms of the number, scar area, volume, or density of landslides. The mean values of the scar areas and volumes are 55.2 m2 and 102.0 m3, respectively, for the open hillside landslides and 91.3 m2 and 166.5 m3, respectively, for the channelized debris flows. Empirical correlations between the numbers, scar areas, and volumes of hillside landslides or channelized debris flows and the maximum rolling rainfall intensities of different periods have been derived. The maximum rolling 4- to 24-h rainfall amounts provide better predictions compared with those with the maximum rolling 1-h rainfall. Maximum rolling rainfall intensity-duration thresholds identifying the likely rainfall conditions that yield natural terrain landslides or debris flows of different magnitudes are also proposed. The initiation rainfall thresholds are identified as 75, 90, 100, 120, 150, 180, and 200 mm for the maximum rolling 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 8-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, respectively. 相似文献
Like almost all fields of science, hydrology has benefited to a large extent from the tremendous improvements in scientific instruments that are able to collect long-time data series and an increase in available computational power and storage capabilities over the last decades. Many model applications and statistical analyses (e.g., extreme value analysis) are based on these time series. Consequently, the quality and the completeness of these time series are essential. Preprocessing of raw data sets by filling data gaps is thus a necessary procedure. Several interpolation techniques with different complexity are available ranging from rather simple to extremely challenging approaches. In this paper, various imputation methods available to the hydrological researchers are reviewed with regard to their suitability for filling gaps in the context of solving hydrological questions. The methodological approaches include arithmetic mean imputation, principal component analysis, regression-based methods and multiple imputation methods. In particular, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models which originate from finance and econometrics will be discussed regarding their applicability to data series characterized by non-constant volatility and heteroscedasticity in hydrological contexts. The review shows that methodological advances driven by other fields of research bear relevance for a more intensive use of these methods in hydrology. Up to now, the hydrological community has paid little attention to the imputation ability of time series models in general and ARCH models in particular. 相似文献
This paper describes the petrology and geochemistry of rocks from the Yap Trench acquired by three dives of the Jiaolong research submarine. Combining the geophysical data and submersible observations, this paper describes the geomorphology, shallow structures, and sedimentology of the Yap Trench and further discusses the tectonics and activities of this region. Two obvious slope breaks are found on the landward slope, and horsts and grabens with small fault offsets are observed in the ocean-ward slope of the trench. Peridotites sampled from the Yap Trench inner wall are highly depleted subduction-related mantle residues. Volcanic rocks in the northern segment of the trench have subduction-related characteristics that Yap fore-arc rocks underwent metasomatism during Cenozoic subduction. The rocks with remarkable lithologic difference from lithospheric mantle and upper crust sampled in the break slopes suggest that the slope break area may represent a lithologic boundary or transition zone. The landward slope of the Yap Trench was removed by subduction erosion as a result of collision with the Caroline Ridge. The bending of the down-going plate caused normal faults, horsts, and grabens with little or no sediments indicating that the Caroline Ridge is subducting beneath the Yap arc along the trench even though the convergence rate is very slow. 相似文献
With the development and popularization of smartphones and embedded sensors, a non-professional atmospheric measurement method by using smartphones carried by the public has been proposed recently. Without extra dedicated instrument, this method has many advantages, such as low hardware cost, high spatio-temporal resolution, and wide coverage, and it can supplement the professional atmospheric measurement methods, which has broad applications in the meteorological operation, scientific research, public service, and other fields. At present, the research on the non-professional atmospheric measurement in China is limited. In order to make full use of this method, this paper briefly outlined the states of existing smartphones and embedded sensors, highlighted the measurement of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, aerosols, and radiation by smartphones. To promote the development of smartphones for atmospheric measurement, future research should focus on mechanism study, available sources exploration, data quality control, big data processing, joining and matching with operation, research and service, etc. 相似文献
In this work, uniaxial fatigue tests combined with post-test X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning were conducted on marble samples with different interbed orientations, in order to reveal the anisotropic damage evolution characteristics during rock failure. The dynamic elastic modulus, damping ratio, fatigue deformation, damage evolution, accumulative damage modeling and crack pattern were systematically analyzed. The testing results indicate that the interbed structure in marble affects the damage evolution and the associated dynamic mechanical behaviors. The damage curve in “S” style indicates three-stage trend, namely, initial damage stage, steady damage stage and the accelerated damage stage. The damage index during cyclic deformation for marble presents obvious discrepancy. In addition, a fatigue damage prediction models was employed numerically as double-term power equations based on the experimental data. It is found that the selected damage model is suitable in modeling the rapid damage growth in the early and final stage of rock fatigue lifetime. Moreover, post-test CT scanning further reveals the anisotropic damage characteristics of marble, the crack pattern in the fractured sample is controlled by the interbed structure. What is more, the most striking founding is that the fracture degree is in consistent with the damage accumulation within the steady damage stage. Through a series of damage mechanical behavior analysis, the internal mechanism of the effect of interbed orientation on damage evolution of marble is firstly documented.
Natural Hazards - Flash flood disaster, with strong suddenness and tremendous destructiveness, is one of the most severe natural disasters in China that seriously threaten the lives and property... 相似文献
Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The failure of landslide control project presents a deformation that continues to develop along the crack system, and the continuous failure of mechanical... 相似文献