Analysis of Many-Year Variations in River Runoff into the Arctic Ocean

Statistical analysis of long-term hydrological observations has shown that the interannual variations in the total river runoff into the Arctic Ocean can be considered as a stationary process. Similar are the variations in the annual runoff of the Ob, Lena, and rivers of the northwestern Asia. However, some components of the total runoff into the Arctic Ocean feature distinct and fairly complicated disturbances in the homogeneity of runoff variations. For example, variations in the annual runoff of the Yenisei River have a distinct nonmonotonic trend: the runoff systematically decreased till the late 1950s and increased since the late 1960s. The rivers of the European part of the Arctic Ocean drainage basin featured a decrease in the amplitude of variations in runoff during the past decades. Rivers of the northwestern America and northeastern Asia featured a regular increase in the amplitude of runoff variations and their autocorrelation since the late 1960s.     

Observed Evolution of Linear and Nonlinear Effects at the Dahan Downhole Array,Taiwan: Analysis of the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi Earthquake Sequence

— In this paper, the site characteristics of the Dahan downhole array are studied by analyzing the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including the main shock and some aftershocks. The four-level array (0 m, 50 m, 100 m and 200 m) is located to the north of Hualien City in eastern Taiwan. Polarization analysis is used to check the orientation errors of the seismometers at different levels of depth. If the surface instrument is chosen as reference, the angle between the major polarization axes of the surface and any downhole records is the orientation error that must be corrected for the downhole accelerographs. The orientation errors at depths of 50 m, 100 m and 200 m are 32°, 120° and –84°. After the corrections, the coherency between the surface and downhole records is substantially improved. Spectral ratio analysis shows that the predominant frequency of the Chi-Chi main shock shifts to a lower frequency. We also simulate ground motions at different depths by using the Haskell method with a linear velocity structure model. The record at surface is chosen as the input motion. Compared with the observed data, ground acceleration can be well reproduced for the aftershocks (weak-motion events) of the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake. However, for the Chi-Chi main shock, the synthetic waveform cannot match well with the observation neither in amplitude nor in phase. This indicates that large ground shaking probably induced the nonlinear site effect at that time, and the model used cannot support it.Acknowledgement. The authors would like to express their thanks to Dr. L.F. Bonilla and one anonymous reviewer for their valuable suggestions. This research was supported by the National Science Council under grant number NSC 89-2921-M-194-007. The Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica supplied the strong-motion data. The support of these organizations is gratefully acknowledged.     

Ecotoxicological Assessment of After-Effects of the Volga River Water Contamination

Comprehensive assessment of ecotoxicological situation in the Volga River basin is presented. Concentrations of organic and inorganic toxic substances are cited. Basic clinic and postmortem symptoms of intoxication in fish are described; changes in the cellular structure of their organs and tissues, as well as disturbances in hemogenesis, developing under the effect of toxic agents, are characterized. Based on the dose-effect dependences, calculated according to the values of the total concentration of toxic substances, standardized to MPC, and criteria of the physiological state of fish, cases of exceedance of the critical concentrations of pollutants are demonstrated for the investigated river sections.__________Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2005, pp. 410–424.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Moiseenko, Gashkina, Sharova, Pokoeva.     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Stability and accuracy analysis of the central difference method for real‐time substructure testing

The central difference method (CDM) that is explicit for pseudo‐dynamic testing is also believed to be explicit for real‐time substructure testing (RST). However, to obtain the correct velocity dependent restoring force of the physical substructure being tested, the target velocity is required to be calculated as well as the displacement. The standard CDM provides only explicit target displacement but not explicit target velocity. This paper investigates the required modification of the standard central difference method when applied to RST and analyzes the stability and accuracy of the modified CDM for RST. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向信息化的城市规划分析

本文首先揭示了建设信息化城市的原因所在;在此基础上,分别对如何实现城市信息化以及如何维持信息化城市的可持续发展进行了规划,并且指出,城市规划应当兼顾两者,不可偏废。     

Transformation of accommodation space of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation, the Songliao Basin, NE China

Analysis of accommodation space variation during deposition of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, indicates that accommodation space changed both through time and across the basin as a seesaw movement. The mid‐upper Qingshankou Formation is divided into three units. In each unit, changes of accommodation space differ in the southern and northern part of the basin. Increasing accommodation in the southern part is accompanied by a decrease in the northern part, and vice versa. Between the northern and southern basin, there was a neutral belt that is like a fulcrum, called the transformation belt here, where the accommodation did not change to any significant degree. We call this response ‘accommodation transformation’, whose characteristics are defined by tectonic subsidence analysis, palaeontological and sedimentary analyses. The accommodation increasing belt, decreasing belt, transformation belt and accommodation transformation boundary together constitute the accommodation transformation system. The recognition of accommodation transformation in the Songliao Basin provides a new insight into sequence stratigraphy and might be widely applicable.     

Analysis on Bearing Capacity of Tunnel-Type Anchorage of a Long-Span Suspension Bridge

INTRODUCTION Tunnel typeanchoragehasobviousadvantages inbearingcapacityversusinvestment(LiuandHu,1996).However,itisrarelyusedinapracticalpro jectbecauseofitsrequirementofgoodrockcondi tions.Siduhebridge(Fig.1),whichliesintheBa dongmountainsinthewestplatea…     

Analysis of pressuremeter geometry effects in clay using critical state models

The conventional interpretation methods of pressuremeter testing effectively approximate pressuremeter membranes as infinitely long. As a result, the effects of the two‐dimensional geometry of pressuremeters are ignored, leading to an overestimation of soil shear strength by pressuremeter testing, as demonstrated in several previous studies. This paper presents results of a numerical study of two‐dimensional geometry effects on self‐boring pressuremeter tests in undrained clay. The results are obtained using critical state soil models with an effective stress formulation. This is in contrast to most (if not all) existing studies on pressuremeter geometry effects, which were based on perfectly plastic soil models (e.g. Yu (Cavity expansion theory and its application to the analysis of pressuremeters. DPhil Thesis, The University of Oxford, 1990), Yeung and Carter (Proc. 3rd Int. Symp. on Pressuremeters, 1990), and Houlsby and Carter (Géotechnique, 1993; 43 (4):567–576)). The present study suggests that the overestimation of soil strength due to the neglect of finite pressuremeter length is significantly affected by the soil model used in the calculations. It is found that for clays with a high overconsolidation ratio (OCR) the strength overestimation predicted using critical state soil models could be considerably smaller than that predicted using perfectly plastic soil models. The main conclusion of this numerical study is that care must be exercised before directly applying any numerically determined pressuremeter geometry correction factors in practice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.