Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.     

Early Cretaceous gabbroic complex from Yinan,Shandong Province: petrogenesis and mantle domains beneath the North China Craton

Sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) zircon U–Pb ages, geochemical and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data are reported for the gabbroic complex from Yinan (Shandong Province) with the aims of characterizing the nature of the Mesozoic mantle beneath the North China Craton. The Yinan gabbros contain alkali feldspar and biotite, and are characterized by moderate Mg#, high SiO₂, low FeO and TiO₂ contents and a strong enrichment of light rare earth elements [(La/Yb)_n=11–50], but no Eu anomaly. They have low Nb/La (0.07–0.29), radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.710) and unradiogenic _Nd(t) (–15 to –13). These crustal fingerprints cannot be attributed to crustal contamination, given the lack of correlation between isotopic ratios and differentiation indices and the unreasonably high proportion of crustal contaminant (>20%) required in modeling. Instead, compositional similarities to contemporaneous basalts from nearby regions imply that the Yinan gabbros were not significantly affected by crystal cumulation. Isotopic data available for the Mesozoic mafic magmas reveal two distinct mantle domains beneath Shandong. While the EM1-like domain (with low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) is confined to western Shandong, the mantle beneath eastern Shandong is dominated by EM2-type (with high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) affinities. This aerial distinction suggests that the EM2-like signature of the Yinan gabbros may have been inherited from westerly-subducted Yangtze crust during the Triassic North China-South China collision. Emplacement of the Yinan gabbros (127 Ma) is likely affiliated with the widespread and protracted extension during the late Mesozoic in this region.     

Diurnal variations in streamflow and water quality during the summer dry season

In a headwater basin covered with boreal forest in northern Japan, the summer dry flow was monitored each summer from 1985 to 1993. Streamflow and specific electrical conductance fluctuated diurnally and these variations were attributed to daytime evapotranspiration. In 1989, the daytime reduction in streamflow and conductance were accompanied by a reduction in the HCO^?₃ concentration. The low flow hydrograph was separated into two components using HCO^?₃ and Cl^? concentrations in August 1989, assuming low flow to be a mixture of delayed subsurface flow and of quick shallow flow. The slight diurnal variation in the ratio of shallow flow to subsurface flow caused the diurnal variation in conductance by changing the HCO^?₃ concentration.     

Multiple generations of forearc mafic–ultramafic rocks in the Timor–Tanimbar ophiolite, eastern Indonesia

We investigated mafic–ultramafic rocks distributed in the Timor–Tanimbar region as a possible modern analogue for the Mediterranean-type ophiolites in the Tethyan system. The geological occurrence suggests that the buoyant subduction of Australian continent uplifted the fragments of newly formed mantle–crust section, which extends to the neighboring preemplaced forearc marginal basins. However, we recognized a large variety of igneous features, which is consistent with the lack of complete succession and the presence of abundant crosscutting structures. All peridotite masses in Timor (Mutis, Atapupu and Dili) are mostly fertile (lherzolitic) in compositions. In addition, we found depleted harzburgite, highly refractory dunite and olivine websterite to occur as minor constituents, which display compositional contrast to those of the lherzolites. Structurally overlying Ocussi volcanics resemble island–arc tholeiite in terms of trace element characteristics, apparently inconsistent with genetic relationship with Timor lherzolite masses. In eastern small islands (Moa and Dai), all types of ophiolitic rocks display varying degrees of island–arc affinities. Cumulate origin of wehrlite and gabbroic rocks in Dai is marked by early crystallization of clinopyroxene and common occurrence of high-calcic plagioclase. Dikes cutting the gabbro sequence have weak island–arc signatures relative to those of Ocussi volcanics. Mildly depleted lherzolite–harzburgite in Moa was intruded by high-Mg andesitic magma, which crystallized hornblende gabbro containing high-Mg orthopyroxene. These petrological and geochemical variations can be best explained by the combination of (1) a temporal change of igneous activity possibly associated with development of forearc basin and (2) the emplacement of spatially different forearc regions in each locality. Unusual occurrence of fertile lherzolite in the forearc setting, generation of high-Mg andesite magmatism, inverted metamorphic grade recorded from associated metamorphic rocks, and formation of marginal basins may be linked to the injection of high-temperature asthenospheric materials into the mantle wedge.     

Anomalously large seismic amplifications in the seafloor area off the Kii peninsula

Seismic wave amplifications were investigated using strong-motion data obtained from the ground’s surface (K-net) on the Kii peninsula (southwestern Japan) and from the network of twenty seismic stations on the seafloor (DONET) located off the peninsula near the Nankai trough. Observed seismograms show that seismic signals at DONET stations are significantly larger than those at K-net stations, independent of epicentral distances. In order to investigate the cause of such amplifications, seismic wavefields for local events were simulated using the finite-difference method, in which a realistic 3D velocity structure in and around the peninsula was incorporated. Our simulation results demonstrate that seismic waves are significantly amplified at DONET stations in relation to the presence of underlying low-velocity sediment layers with a total thickness of up to 10 km. Our simulations also show considerable variations in the degree of amplification among DONET stations, which is attributed to differences in the thickness of the sediment layers. The degree of amplification is relatively low at stations above thin sediment layers near the trough axis, but seismic signals are much more amplified at stations closer to the Kii peninsula, where sediment layers are thicker than those at the trough axis. Simulation results are consistent with observations. This study, based on seafloor observations and simulations, indicates that because seismic signals are amplified due to the ocean-specific structures, the magnitude of earthquakes would be overestimated if procedures applied to data observed at land stations are used without corrections.     

Bimodal representation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation

The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) shows distinct variability centers and propagation patterns between boreal winter and summer. To accurately represent the state of the ISO at any particular time of a year, a bimodal ISO index was developed. It consists of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mode with predominant eastward propagation along the equator and Boreal Summer ISO (BSISO) mode with prominent northward propagation and large variability in off-equatorial monsoon trough regions. The spatial–temporal patterns of the MJO and BSISO modes are identified with the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis of 31?years (1979–2009) OLR data for the December–February and June–August period, respectively. The dominant mode of the ISO at any given time can be judged by the proportions of the OLR anomalies projected onto the two modes. The bimodal ISO index provides objective and quantitative measures on the annual and interannual variations of the predominant ISO modes. It is shown that from December to April the MJO mode dominates while from June to October the BSISO mode dominates. May and November are transitional months when the predominant mode changes from one to the other. It is also shown that the fractional variance reconstructed based on the bimodal index is significantly higher than the counterpart reconstructed based on the Wheeler and Hendon’s index. The bimodal ISO index provides a reliable real time monitoring skill, too. The method and results provide critical information in assessing models’ performance to reproduce the ISO and developing further research on predictability of the ISO and are also useful for a variety of scientific and practical purposes.     

Partitioning Eddy-Covariance Methane Fluxes from a Shallow Lake into Diffusive and Ebullitive Fluxes

Methane (\(\mathrm {CH}_{4}\)) is known to be emitted from lakes to the atmosphere via processes such as diffusion and ebullition (i.e., bubble emission). We developed a practical method for partitioning eddy-covariance \(\mathrm {CH}_{4}\) fluxes from a shallow lake into diffusive and ebullitive fluxes using a wavelet analysis based on local scalar similarity between the \(\mathrm {CH}_{4}\) concentration and other reference scalars, such as the air temperature or water vapour concentration, in the wavelet time-scale domain, with the hypothesis that similar and dissimilar fluctuation components are related to diffusive and ebullitive \(\mathrm {CH}_{4}\) fluxes, respectively. Our method is applied to approximately two weeks of data obtained at a shallow mid-latitude lake. The partitioned diffusive flux has a physically sound relationship with wind speed, supporting the validity of the method. The ratio of the diffusive flux to the total flux is typically 0.11 with flow from an area of steady bubble emission, but otherwise 0.36. Further validation is required using a larger dataset and data from other lakes. The proposed method can be easily applied to historical data because it requires only 10-Hz data of \(\mathrm {CH}_{4}\) concentration and other reference scalars, along with an empirical parameter.