Numerical forecasting of the time interval between successive M8 earthquakes along the Nankai Trough,southwest Japan,using ocean bottom cable network data

One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.     

Improved Method for Calculating Anthropogenic CO2 in the Upper Layer of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre along 175°E

Seawater samples were collected in the North Pacific along 175°E during a cruise of the Northwest Pacific Carbon Cycle Study (NOPACCS) program in 1994. Many properties related to the carbonate system were analyzed. By using well-known ratios to correct for chemical changes in seawater, the CO₂ concentration at a given depth was back calculated to its initial concentration at the time when the water left the surface in winter. We estimated sea-surface CO₂ and titration alkalinity (TA) in present-day winter, from which we evaluated the degree of air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter was. Using a correction factor for air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter, we reconstructed sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times. The difference between the back-calculated initial CO₂ and sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times should correspond to anthropgenic CO₂ input. Although the mixing of different water masses may cause systematic error in the calculation, we found that the nonlinear effect induced by the mixing of different water masses was negligible in the upper layer of the North Pacific subtropical gyre along 175°E. The results of our improved method of assessing the distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in that region show marked differences from those obtained using the previous back-calculation method.     

Infrared brightness temperature of Saturn's rings based on the inhomogeneous multilayer assumption

Models of Saturn's rings based on the classical multilayer assumption have been studied in the infrared. Thermal energy balance of Saturn's rings is treated rigorously by solving the infrared radiative transfer equations. It was found that a homogeneous multilayer model is incompatible with the observed infrared brightness variation of the A and B rings, although it can fit that of the C ring. The alternative inhomogeneous multilayer model with dark particles within a bright haze of small icy particles is presented in order to satisfy the available infrared data of the A, B, and C rings. The results based on the inhomogeneous multilayer model may be summarized as follows: The observed infrared brightness data of the three rings are explained in terms of the different optical thickness without having significant differences in the ring-particle properties, such as albedo, spin rate, and sizes. But each ring contains a different amount of bright haze particles and their concentration within the rings depends on whether or not dark particles emit radiation mostly from one hemisphere (slow rotator and/or low thermal inertia). If a dark particle is an isothermal radiator, the possible ranges of A₁ and A₂ for all three rings are given by 0.9 ? A₁ ? 0.95 and 0.0 ? A₂ ? 0.15, where A₁ and A₂ are the bolometric bond albedos of a bright haze and a dark particle, respectively. The possible ranges of the optical thickness ratio X of the dark particle layer to the total ring layer for the rings A, B, and C are given by 0.65 ? X ? 0.75, 0.8 ? X ? 0.9, and 0.8 ? X ? 1.0, respectively. If a dark particle is a slow rotator, we obtain 0.9 ? A₁ ? 0.95 and 0.0 ? A₂ ? 0.4 for all three rings. The ranges of X for the rings A, B, and C are given by 0.35 ? X ? 0.7, 0.65 ? X ? 0.9, and 0.35 ? X ? 1.0, respectively. In this paper, for the first time, a consistent model is presented which is applicable to all three rings from the multilayer point of view.     

On-going orogeny in the outer-arc of the Timor–Tanimbar region, eastern Indonesia

The Timor–Tanimbar islands of eastern Indonesia form a non-volcanic arc in front of a 7 km deep fore-arc basin that separates it from a volcanic inner arc. The Timor–Tanimbar Islands expose one of the youngest high P/T metamorphic belts in the world, providing us with an excellent opportunity to study the inception of orogenic processes, undisturbed by later tectonic events.Structural and petrological studies of the high P/T metamorphic belt show that both deformation and metamorphic grade increase towards the centre of the 1 km thick crystalline belt. Kinematic indicators exhibit top-to-the-north sense of shear along the subhorizontal upper boundaries and top-to-the-south sense in the bottom boundaries of the high P/T metamorphic belt. Overall configuration suggests that the high P/T metamorphic rocks extruded as a thin sheet into a space between overlying ophiolites and underlying continental shelf sediments. Petrological study further illustrates that the central crystalline unit underwent a Barrovian-type overprint of the original high P/T metamorphic assemblages during wedge extrusion, and the metamorphic grade ranged from pumpellyite-actinolite to upper amphibolite facies.Quaternary uplift, marked by elevation of recent reefs, was estimated to be about 1260 m in Timor in the west and decreases toward Tanimbar in the east. In contrast, radiometric ages for the high P/T metamorphic rocks suggest that the exhumation of the high P/T metamorphic belt started in western Timor in Late Miocene time and migrated toward the east. Thus, the tectonic evolution of this region is diachronous and youngs to the east. We conclude that the deep-seated high P/T metamorphic belt extrudes into shallow crustal levels as a first step, followed by doming at a later stage. The so-called ‘mountain building’ process is restricted to the second stage. We attribute this Quaternary rapid uplift to rebound of the subducting Australian continental crust beneath Timor after it achieved positive buoyancy, due to break-off of the oceanic slab fringing the continental crust. In contrast, Tanimbar in the east has not yet been affected by later doming. A wide spectrum of processes, starting from extrusion of the high P/T metamorphic rocks and ending with the later doming due to slab break-off, can be observed in the Timor–Tanimbar region.     

Origin of high-magnesian andesites in the Setouchi volcanic belt,southwest Japan,I. Petrographical and chemical characteristics

High-magnesian andesites of middle Miocene age occur in southwest Japan, forming an obvious volcanic belt. These andesites have low FeO*/MgO ratios (0.546–0.931), and are rich in Ni (101–312 ppm), Co (30.0–45.1 ppm), and Cr (208–756 ppm). They are relatively aphyric (phenocrysts <10 vol.%), and the phenocrysts of magnesian olivine (～Fo₈₈) are in equilibrium with the host high-magnesian andesite magmas on the basis of the Fe-Mg exchange partitioning. These features suggest that the high-magnesian andesites are not differentiated or accumulative; they appear to represent primary andesites generated in the upper mantle. These southwest Japanese high-magnesian andesites are rich in incompatible elements, and show light rare earth enrichment relative to boninites, suggesting that the former is derived from a less depleted mantle source than the latter.     

Decadal change in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August–October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999–2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984–1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009–2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.

     

Dynamic slope stability analyses with a non-linear finite element method

A new technique is presented with which to investigate slope stability during strong earthquake motion. This technique is based on a non-linear finite element method that uses a joint element to express non-linear behaviour and the progressive failure of a slope. Joint elements are arranged at every interface between soil elements. Accordingly, each soil element is allowed to move in directions parallel, perpendicular and rotational to neighbouring elements; consequently, they express the sliding and separation at any interface between the soil elements. The method was used to investigate the stability of an existing slope during strong earthquake motions. Preliminary static analyses were made, and their results were compared with results obtained with Janbu's method in order to check the validity of our proposed method. The dynamic analyses also took into account the material non-linearity of the soil. The process of progressive failure was examined for a slope whose material constants are known. The influence of input excitations on slope stability is discussed in detail. The method also has been used to assess the effectiveness of a countermeasure used to prevent slope failure.     

Feasibility of dumping fossil-fuel CO2 into the deep ocean

An idea has been proposed to recover and dispose of the fossil-fuel CO₂ generated by stationary power plants into the deep sea, thereby reducing the CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. The assessment of its environmental effects and risks is essential for developing new technology for the recovery/disposal system, which has recently received growing attention in Japan.The simple calculation made here did not yield any decisively significant environmental risks so far. However, a further detailed study is needed for the consequences of lowering local pH and the abrupt dissolution of CaCO₃ in the deep-sea sediments. It is also shown that, on longer term, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ may be influenced by the degree at which the reaction between the disposed fossil-fuel CO₂ and the sedimentary CaCO₃ takes place under such conditions. At any rate, the problem should be brought to serious scientific attention much like the case of ocean dumping of radioactive wastes.     

Neodymium isotopic variations in Northwest Pacific waters

Four vertical profiles of the concentration and isotopic composition of Nd in seawater were obtained in the western North Pacific. Two profiles from the Kuroshio Current regime showed congruently that although the Nd concentration increases gradually with depth, its isotopic composition varies significantly with depth depending upon the water mass occupying the water column. The high-salinity Kuroshio waters originating from the North Pacific Tropical Water (NPTW) carry the least radiogenic Nd (?_Nd = −7.4 to −8.7) to this region at ∼250 m from the western margin continental shelves, most likely from the East China Sea. The Nd isotopic compositions in the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) that occurs at 600 to 1000 m in the subtropical region are fairly uniform at ?_Nd = −3.7. The profile data from the ∼38° to 40°N Kuroshio/Oyashio mixed water region off Sanriku of Honshu, Japan, also suggest that the newest NPIW with ?_Nd = −3.2 is formed there by the mixing of various source waters, and the radiogenic component of Nd is derived mainly from the Oyashio waters.In the Pacific Deep Water (PDW) below ∼1000 m, the Nd isotopic composition is neither vertically nor horizontally homogeneous, suggesting that it serves as a useful tracer for sluggish deep water circulation as well. Two profiles from the Izu-Ogasawara Trench showed a minimum ?_Nd value at ∼2000 m, suggesting that there exists a horizontal advective flow in the vicinity of Honshu, Japan. There is some evidence from other chemical properties to support this observation. The waters below 4000 m including those within the trench in the subtropical region have ?_Nd values of around −5, suggesting that the deep waters are fed from the south along the western boundary, ultimately from the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the South Pacific. This extends up to ∼40°N along the Japanese Islands. In the subarctic region (>∼42°N), the waters have more radiogenic Nd with ?_Nd > −4.0 throughout the water column, presumably due to the supply of Nd by weathering in such igneous provinces as the Kuril-Kamchatska-Aleutian Island chain. The lateral inhomogeneity of the Nd isotopic composition in PDW suggests that there may be different circulation and mixing regimes in the North Pacific Basin.     

Scoria cone formation through a violent Strombolian eruption: Irao Volcano, SW Japan

Scoria cones are common volcanic features and are thought to most commonly develop through the deposition of ballistics produced by gentle Strombolian eruptions and the outward sliding of talus. However, some historic scoria cones have been observed to form with phases of more energetic violent Strombolian eruptions (e.g., the 1943–1952 eruption of Parícutin, central Mexico; the 1975 eruption of Tolbachik, Kamchatka), maintaining volcanic plumes several kilometers in height, sometimes simultaneous with active effusive lava flows. Geologic evidence shows that violent Strombolian eruptions during cone formation may be more common than is generally perceived, and therefore it is important to obtain additional insights about such eruptions to better assess volcanic hazards. We studied Irao Volcano, the largest basaltic monogenetic volcano in the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, SW Japan. The geologic features of this volcano are consistent with a violent Strombolian eruption, including voluminous ash and fine lapilli beds (on order of 10^?1 km³ DRE) with simultaneous scoria cone formation and lava effusion from the base of the cone. The characteristics of the volcanic products suggest that the rate of magma ascent decreased gradually throughout the eruption and that less explosive Strombolian eruptions increased in frequency during the later stages of activity. During the eruption sequence, the chemical composition of the magma became more differentiated. A new K–Ar age determination for phlogopite crystallized within basalt dates the formation of Irao Volcano at 0.4?±?0.05 Ma.