Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

Bioaccumulation of nitroarenes in bivalves at Osaka Bay, Japan

This paper reports for the first time the detection and occurrence of nitroarenes (NPAHs) in marine organisms. Mussels and oysters collected from Osaka Bay, Japan, had total NPAHs concentrations that ranged from 2380 to 24,688 pg/g dry and 2672 to 25,961 pg/g dry, respectively. Relatively higher concentrations were detected in sampling sites located near the central district and suburbs of Osaka City implying that the most probable sources of NPAHs in the two bivalves are exhaust gases and smokes emitted by automobiles and industrial plants. Bivalves had relatively higher residues of 1-nitronaphthalene, 2-nitronaphthalene, 3-nitrophenanthrene, and 9-nitrophenanthrenes. Residues of 2-nitrofluorene, 1-nitropyrene, 4-nitropyrenes, and 6-nitrochrysene were much lower compared to nitronaphthalenes and nitrophenanthrenes. Inter-species differences was only observed for 2-nitronaphthalene with oysters exhibiting significantly higher residues than mussels.     

Impact-induced phyllosilicate formation from olivine and water

Shock-recovery experiments on mixtures of olivine and water with gas (air) were performed in a previous study to demonstrate water-mineral interactions during impact events (Furukawa et al., 2007). The products of these former experiments were investigated in the present study using transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and X-ray powder diffraction with the aim of finding evidence of aqueous alteration. Serpentine formed on the surface of shocked olivine with well-developed mosaicism. The yield of serpentine depended on the water/olivine ratio in the starting material, indicating progressive serpentinization under water-rich conditions. Comminution and mosaicism were developed in shocked olivine grains. The temperature and pressure changes of the samples during the experiments were estimated by constructing Hugoniots for mixtures of olivine and water, combined with the results of an additional fracturing experiment on a shocked container. Pressures and temperatures reached 4.6-7.2 GPa and at least 230-390 °C, respectively, for 0.7 μs during in-shock compression. Post-shock temperatures reached a maximum of ∼1300 °C, when the shock wave reached the gas in the sample cavity. The serpentine formed after the post-shock temperature maximum, most likely when temperatures dropped to between 200 and 400 °C. This is the first experiment to demonstrate the formation of phyllosilicates using heat supplied by an impact. The present results and estimations suggest that phyllosilicates could form as a result of impacts into oceans as well as by impacts on terrestrial and Martian crustal rocks, and on some asteroidal surfaces, where liquid or solid H₂O is available. A significant amount of phyllosilicates would have formed during the late heavy bombardment of meteorites on the Hadean Earth, and such phyllosilicates might have affected the prebiotic carbon cycle.     

A review of the NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH models and their application to marine ecosystem investigations

The evolution of the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography (NEMURO) family of models to study marine ecosystems is reviewed. Applications throughout the North Pacific have shown the models to be robust and to be able to reproduce 1D, 2D and 3D components of nutrient, carbon cycle and biogeochemical cycles as well as aspects of the lower trophic levels ecosystem (phyto- and zooplankton). NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring, an extension that includes higher trophic levels, can be run uncoupled or coupled to NEMURO. In the uncoupled mode, the growth and weight of an individual fish is computed using plankton densities simulated by NEMURO but with no feedback between fish consumption and plankton mortality. In the coupled mode, the feeding, growth and weight of a representative fish are computed, and prey removals due to feeding by fish appear as mortality terms on the prey. The NEMURO family of models continues to evolve, including effects of the microbial loop and iron limitation at lower trophic levels, and full life cycle, multi-species and multi-generational simulations at higher trophic levels. We outline perspectives for future end-to-end modeling efforts that can be used to study marine ecosystems in response to global environmental change.     

Geometry of the Nojima Fault at Nojima-Hirabayashi, Japan – II. Microstructures and their Implications for Permeability and Strength

Samples of damage-zone granodiorite and fault core from two drillholes into the active, strike-slip Nojima fault zone display microstructures and alteration features that explain their measured present-day strengths and permeabilities and provide insight on the evolution of these properties in the fault zone. The least deformed damage-zone rocks contain two sets of nearly perpendicular (60–90° angles), roughly vertical fractures that are concentrated in quartz-rich areas, with one set typically dominating over the other. With increasing intensity of deformation, which corresponds generally to increasing proximity to the core, zones of heavily fragmented rock, termed microbreccia zones, develop between prominent fractures of both sets. Granodiorite adjoining intersecting microbreccia zones in the active fault strands has been repeatedly fractured and locally brecciated, accompanied by the generation of millimeter-scale voids that are partly filled with secondary minerals. Minor shear bands overprint some of the heavily deformed areas, and small-scale shear zones form from the pairing of closely spaced shear bands. Strength and permeability measurements were made on core collected from the fault within a year after a major (Kobe) earthquake. Measured strengths of the samples decrease regularly with increasing fracturing and fragmentation, such that the gouge of the fault core and completely brecciated samples from the damage zone are the weakest. Permeability increases with increasing disruption, generally reaching a peak in heavily fractured but still more or less cohesive rock at the scale of the laboratory samples. Complete loss of cohesion, as in the gouge or the interiors of large microbreccia zones, is accompanied by a reduction of permeability by 1-2 orders of magnitude below the peak values. The core samples show abundant evidence of hydrothermal alteration and mineral precipitation. Permeability is thus expected to decrease and strength to increase somewhat in active fault strands between earthquakes, as mineral deposits progressively seal fractures and fill pore spaces.     

Cross-shore variation of long-term average longshore current velocity in the nearshore zone

The cross-shore variation of long-term average longshore current velocity was investigated on the basis of a 15-year data set of longshore current, wave and wind. The longshore current velocities were measured once a day along a 427-m-long pier. The results show that the direction of the long-term average longshore current velocity away (>200 m) from the shore was the opposite to that near the shore. The southward current was dominant offshore, whereas the northward current was dominant near the shore. The cross-shore variation of the long-term average longshore current velocity was formed owing to a difference between the wave and wind conditions when the northward and southward currents developed. When the northward current developed, the offshore wave height was relatively small and the frequency of the southward wind velocity was almost equal to that of the northward one. As a result, the northward current developed only near the shore and decayed outside the narrow surf zone. On the other hand, when the southward current developed, the offshore wave height was relatively large and the southward wind velocity was predominant, which resulted in the southward current developing not only in the wide surf zone but also outside the surf zone. The superposition of the two cross-shore variations produced a cross-shore variation of the long-term average longshore current velocity with a northward velocity near the shore and a southward velocity away from the shore.     

Basin and crustal velocity structure models for the simulation of strong ground motions in the Kinki area,Japan

We constructed a prototype of the basin and crustal structure model for the Kinki area, southwest of Japan, for the simulation of strong ground motions of hypothetical crustal and subduction earthquakes. We collected results of the deep seismic velocity profiles obtained by the reflection experiments and seismic imaging results, which were conducted in the Kinki area. The obtained profiles give underground velocity structures of the crust, from the surface to the subducting slab. We also gather the basin velocity structure information of the Osaka, Kyoto, Nara, and Ohmi basins. To examine the applicability of the constructed velocity structure model to the ground motion simulation, we simulated waveforms of an intermediate size event occurred near the source area of the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. Simulated ground motions using the basin and crustal velocity structure model are fairly well reproducing the observations at most of stations, and the constructed basin and crustal velocity structure model is applicable for the long-period ground motion simulations.     

Relationship between statistical thermal alteration index and vitrinite reflectance for sedimentary rocks in northern Japan with reference to effects for unconformity,faulting, and contact metamorphism

Two organic maturity indices, the statistical thermal alteration index (stTAI) and vitrinite reflectance (R_O), are used to gain insight into the geological histories of sequences of Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sediments in northern Japan that contain an unconformity and which are affected by faulting and contact metamorphism. The stTAI is based on the brightness, or gray level, of fossil pollen of Pinus, Podocarpus, Abies, and Picea species. Pollen brightness is measured using a transmitted‐light microscope equipped with a computer‐driven digital image processor. The stTAI represents the mean value of the modes for the complete array of indigenous pollen in rock samples. The stTAI indicates the level of organic maturation for Neogene sedimentary rocks of Japan, from incipient diagenesis to early catagenesis (R_O ≤1.0%). With the progressive diagenesis and catagenesis of sedimentary rocks, stTAI values generally show a progressive decrease, whereas R_O values increase. The effects of an unconformity and faulting are more clearly recorded in stTAI trends than in R_O trends. During early stages of organic maturation (R_O ≤0.7%), stTAI shows a rapid decrease, while R_O shows a rapid increase during the mature and post‐mature stages (R_O ≥0.8%). The occurrence of a range in R_O values for a given level of organic maturity makes it difficult to determine the influence of the unconformity on the increasing R_O trend. R_O values show a progressive increase toward an igneous dyke, but this trend is not apparent in stTAI values. Measurements of Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous rocks in Japan reveal that stTAI is more sensitive to heating duration than R_O, although R_O is more sensitive to heating temperature.     

应用BOLD进行核磁脑功能成像的误区：神经元活动时脑血氧变化的多样性

Functional MRI (fMRI) is recognized as a well-established non-invasive diagnostic method to image activating cortical areas. Currently, the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) contrast method is widely used in fMRI. BOLD-fMRI images activating are as by detecting a reduced concentration of deoxyhemoglobin during neuronal activity, which is caused by a larger increase in O2 delivery compared with O2 consumption in normal adults. In the present study, near infrared spectroscopy, which is an optical method to evaluate cerebral blood oxygenation changes, has demonstrated an increase of deoxyhcmoglobin associated with increases of oxyhemoglobin and total hemoglobin at activation areas of stroke patients, whereas BOLD-fMRI failed to image the activation areas. The present findings have serious implications for the appiication of BOLD-fMRI to the patients with brain disorders because BOLD-fMRI may overlook neuronal activities in these patients unless both increases and decreases of signals are considered.     

Sensitive response of desert vegetation to moisture change based on a near-annual resolution pollen record from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin, northwest China

We present a 50-year pollen record at near-annual resolution from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Chronology of a 22-cm short core was established by ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analysis. The pollen results at 0.5 cm intervals show large changes in Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae (A/C) ratios from < 0.2 to 0.95 in the last 50 years. High (low) A/C ratios represent increase (decrease) in steppe pollen production, which correspond to high (low) relative humidity observed at nearby Delingha weather station. On the basis of good correspondence with instrumental records and carbonate content from Gahai Lake, we conclude that A/C ratio is sensitive to moisture change and can be a very useful index in reconstructing paleoclimate of arid regions. Comparison with pollen and snow accumulation data from Dunde ice core suggests that effective moisture at low and high elevations shows the opposite relationship when mountain precipitation was extremely high, possibly due to topography-induced uplifting and subsiding air dynamics.