乌兰布和沙漠东南缘白沙蒿(Artemisia sphaerocphala)灌丛沙堆形态特征与固沙能力

白沙蒿(Artemisia sphaerocphala)灌丛沙堆是乌兰布和沙漠最为广泛分布的典型荒漠灌丛沙堆之一。本研究对白沙蒿灌丛的灌丛形态参数、沙堆形态参数进行了野外测定,探讨沙堆形态发育及固沙能力与白沙蒿灌丛形态的关系。结果表明:白沙蒿灌丛高度随着灌丛半径的增加而呈对数曲线增加,在灌丛较小时灌丛高度增长较快,随后渐趋于稳定,其水平方向发育速度大于垂直方向;白沙蒿灌丛沙堆半径及高度随灌丛半径和高度增加而增加,二者呈显著线性关系,沙堆水平方向发育受到灌丛冠幅的影响,沙堆垂直方向的发育水平取决于灌丛高度;随白沙蒿地上部分鲜重的增加,灌丛沙堆底面积、高度、沙堆体积和固沙效率均呈极显著线性增加(p0.01);白沙蒿灌丛越大其固积沙堆也越大,固沙率越高,不同大小灌丛白沙蒿间的固沙效率差异显著(p0.05);白沙蒿灌丛背风侧的积沙宽度(y)与积沙距离(x)显著相关(R2=0.9917),其线性回归方程为y=-19.654x+122.41,在距离灌丛背风面6~7倍高度的地方,积沙接近消失。     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf

University of Maryland, College Park     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

基于MICAPS4的智能网格预报平台设计与实现

随着我国智能网格预报业务的开展,海量高分辨率客观数据需要便捷的分析显示及产品制作平台高效处理。该文基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）设计并实现智能网格预报平台,采用MVVM（模型-视图-视图模型,model-view-viewmodel）设计模式,实现业务逻辑与视图的分离,通过对各子功能模块的划分,降低模块之间的耦合度,具有良好的可扩展性。平台实现了高分辨率网格预报数据的显示分析和产品输出,开发了基于等值线、网格、关键点等智能化预报制作工具,集成了降水时间拆分、温度极值订正等客观预报方法,开发了降水、温度、相对湿度等要素一致性处理方法,可有效帮助预报员提高工作效率,同时能够确保产品之间的一致性。平台继承MICAPS4的微内核组件服务、高性能渲染引擎和开放式插件扩展管理等优良特性,实现面向智能网格预报的业务编排、智能编辑和算法集成。目前,该平台已经实现业务应用,为全国智能网格预报业务提供重要支撑。     

傅立叶变换红外光谱联用技术在化石燃料分析中的应用

对傅立叶变换红外光谱联用技术在化石燃料分析中的应用进行了较全面的总结评述,重点介绍了气相色谱／红外光谱联机、高压液相色谱／红外光谱联机、薄层色谱／红外光谱联机、超临界流体色谱／红外光谱联机、裂解色谱／红外光谱联机、热重分析／红外光谱联机、气相色谱／红外光谱／质谱三机联用技术等在化石燃料的结构组分分析、成因机理研究及其勘探等诸方面的重要应用,尤其是在芳香族化合物和几何异构体的分离鉴定方面发挥出的突出功效。引用文献５９篇。     

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

Wind-driven, double-gyre, ocean circulation in a reduced-gravity, 2.5-layer, lattice boltzmann model

A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.     

影响混凝土动态性能的因素分析

随着土木工程领域数值计算水平的提高,对大型混凝土结构进行准确力学分析的能力也得到快速发展。这就要求对土要工程材料的力学性能有更精细的认识。混凝土材料的动态力学性能是大型混凝土结构动力安全评价的基础。在总结当前国内外研究成果的基础上,对影响混凝土材料动力性能的主要因素进行了系统地综述,并对混凝土等级、试件尺寸养护环境、试验方法等影响混凝土动态力学性能的主要因素进行了详细分析,明确提出了多轴应力状态、复杂环境条件、复杂应力路径以及循环往复荷载是混凝土动态性能研究的薄弱环节,同时这也是决定大型结构动力灾变的关键环节。需要对这些影响因素分别进行深入、系统的探讨。