气象科学“内卷”了吗?

新中国气象科学经过70年的快速发展,已经触摸到了世界前沿。从20世纪中叶开始的长时间“跟跑”和中国具有世界上最高、尺度最大的地形等带来的气象预报复杂性问题,或许在21世纪20年代到来时,“内卷”带来的挑战会更严峻:在全球气象进入“准停滞期”等待突破时,我们还很少有领跑的机会和经验。     

Network-based triple-frequency carrier phase ambiguity resolution between reference stations using BDS data for long baselines

Network-based ambiguity resolution (AR) between reference stations is the prerequisite to realize a precise real-time kinematic positioning service. With the help of BDS triple-frequency signals, we can efficiently deal with the ionospheric delay and tropospheric delay, and achieve rapid and reliable AR. To overcome the inaccurate ionospheric delay estimated by the geometry-free three carrier ambiguity resolution (GF TCAR) technique, which leads to failure in the original ambiguity resolution, we propose an ionospheric-free (IF) TCAR method to resolve the ambiguity between the reference stations over long baselines. Taking full advantage of the known positions of the reference stations, the easily resolved extra-wide-lane (EWL) ambiguity, and the IF phase combinations, we can reliably fix the wide-lane (WL) ambiguity. A Kalman filter is applied to estimate precise IF ambiguities and the original ambiguity is resolved with the fixed WL ambiguity. A numerical analysis with triple-frequency BDS data from three long baselines of a CORS network is provided to compare the AR performance of GF TCAR with that of IF TCAR. The results show that both methods can reliably resolve the WL ambiguity with a remarkable correctly-fixed rate of higher than 99%, and the reliably-fixed rates of the IF TCAR slightly increase from 92.19, 94.67 and 94.61–98.26, 99.54 and 97.51% for the three baselines. Herein “correctly-fixed” and “reliably-fixed” mean the difference between the float ambiguity and the true one are less than ± 0.5 and ± 0.25 cycles, respectively. On the other hand, the AR performance of the original signals with the IF TCAR method is much better than that with the GF TCAR method attaining a 100% correctly-fixed rate, while the GF TCAR method can hardly fix the original ambiguity with the largest bias being as much as 4 cycles because of the amplified systematic bias.     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

Analysis of estimated satellite clock biases and their effects on precise point positioning

This study provides a systemic analysis to identify the biases in estimated satellite clocks and illustrates their effects in precise point positioning (PPP). First, the precise satellite clock estimation method considering pseudorange and carrier phase hardware delays is derived. Two methods for satellite clock estimation are compared, and their equivalency is discussed. The results show that apart from the well-known constant code hardware biases, the time-variant phase hardware biases are also absorbed by the estimated clocks. Also, the satellite clocks contain biases caused by modeling errors. To analyze the effects of these biases, they are grouped into initial clock biases (ICBs) and time-dependent biases (TDBs). Then, a detailed analysis of the impact of the biases on PPP-based troposphere and coordinate estimates is conducted. The experimental analysis demonstrates that TDBs affect positioning and tropospheric estimates, and their impacts are more significant in the static mode. The ICBs affect coordinate accuracy, zenith total delay mean bias, and its standard deviations only at the millimeter level for kinematic and static PPP, which is negligible. However, the ICBs affect the convergence period for both static and real kinematic PPP, and the magnitude of their impact largely depends on data quality. Note that satellites clocks are generally estimated with the P1/P2 and L1/L2 ionospheric-free combinations, and that hardware-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs cancel if users employ the same type of observables as the clock providers. Otherwise, the effects of biases cannot be ignored, especially for triple-frequency applications. Also, modeling-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs are significant in real-time clocks, which also affect user applications. Our conclusion is applicable for understanding the effects of these biases.     

基于阜新市的土壤多样性与土地利用类型关联性分析

以阜新市为研究对象,将土地利用动态演变的模拟和预测以及关联分析测度方法应用于土壤多样性和土地利用类型关联性分析的研究中。选取1985—2015年间8个时期的遥感影像进行土地利用分类,并基于土壤矢量数据,对阜新市土壤和土地利用的多样性进行初步分析和定量化研究,探究了土壤与土地利用之间的关联性。研究结果表明:对阜新市土壤多样性指数影响因子的关联度从大到小依次是城镇、农用地、林地、水域、其他,关联度值分别为0.850 6、0.747 7、0.779 5、0.803 3、0.641 9,选取城镇、农用地、林地和水域这4个因子作为多元线性回归模型中的自变量参数,对土壤多样性指数进行预测,得到相关系数R=0.990,因此,4个因子对土壤多样性指数影响具有较强的关联性。由此可见,大规模土地利用变化是引起土壤多样性变化的一个首要驱动因子。     

华北克拉通东缘金岭杂岩体岩浆源区及构造背景:来自岩相学、岩石地球化学及年代学的证据

金岭杂岩体由细粒黑云角闪闪长岩、中细粒黑云角闪闪长岩、中细粒黑云角闪二长闪长岩和细粒角闪二长闪长岩组成,是鲁西地区典型矽卡岩型富铁矿(金岭铁矿)控矿岩体。本次研究对细粒黑云角闪闪长岩和细粒角闪二长闪长岩进行了锆石LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb定年,其结果分别为129.2±3.2 Ma和132.8±1.2 Ma,表明该杂岩体的侵位时代为早白垩世。样品SiO2、K2O和Na2O含量分别介于54.17%~63.73%、1.92%~4.76%和3.10%~5.41%之间,K2O/Na2O为0.58~0.94,A/CNK为0.60~0.93,具有轻稀土富集,重稀土亏损的右倾型稀土配分模式,轻、重稀土分馏程度中等((La/Yb)N=9.94~23.49),Eu异常不明显(δEu=0.84~1.10),具中—弱负Ce异常(δCe=0.56~0.92)。样品以富集大离子亲石元素(Ba、K、U、Pb等)、亏损高场强元素(Nb、Ta、Ti)以及高Sr/Y为特征。金岭杂岩体为燕山晚期岩浆活动产物,属准铝质高钾钙碱性系列,岩浆主要来源于富集岩石圈地幔的部分熔融,并在岩浆上升侵位的过程中有地壳物质的同化混染。燕山晚期华北克拉通在古太平洋板块俯冲后后撤引起的板内伸展环境下,增厚陆壳减薄阶段,岩浆上侵就位形成金岭杂岩体。     

A novel dynamic predictive method of water inrush from coal floor based on gated recurrent unit model

Natural Hazards - For water inrush from coal floor, due to different kinds of controlling factors and their internal correlations, the accuracy of prediction model is mostly below expectation. In...     

东非海岸坦桑尼亚和鲁伍马盆地天然气成藏机理

东非海岸盆地天然气资源丰富,是世界天然气勘探的热点地区.东非海岸重点盆地的天然气为腐泥型高温裂解气,主要来源于下侏罗统局限海相优质烃源岩.大型断裂控制了东非海岸重点盆地天然气的垂向运移,研究区主要发育大型伸展断裂和大型走滑断裂.大型走滑断裂是坦桑尼亚盆地南部天然气藏的主要运移通道,其主要活动时期为晚白垩世-古新世,控制了白垩系-古近系浊积砂岩气藏的油气运移成藏.大型伸展断裂是鲁伍马盆地天然气藏的主要运移通道,其主要活动时期为古新世、渐新世和新近纪,控制了古近系浊积砂岩气藏的油气运移成藏.砂体规模控制了深水区岩性或构造-岩性圈闭的大小,进而控制了天然气藏的规模.受天然气运移方式的控制,东非海岸盆地形成了大型走滑断裂控藏模式和大型伸展断裂控藏模式.      

中国钙华沉积与气候变化关系研究

钙华是第四纪研究中的重要标志物,它记录了地质构造活动和气候变化信息.钙华沉积和气候变化之间可能存在联系,但它们之间的确切关系还不清楚.本文收集了中国的50处钙华地理坐标及98个已发表的钙华年龄数据,并使用钙华数量出现峰值的年龄与第四纪典型气候事件发生的时间进行比较分析,以检验钙华沉积受气候变化调节的假设.数据分析表明,中国钙华在空间上主要分布在水量充足气候温暖且地势起伏大、水动力强的西南地区;在时间上钙华数量出现峰值的频率大致对应于气候的10万年(100 ka)冰期旋回,每100 ka的最大峰值均出现在间冰期或过渡期(冰川期向间冰期过渡时期)这两个较温暖时期.并得出中国钙华在气候温暖且降水或地下水丰富的时期沉积速率更高,而在气温降低水量减少时期沉积速率较低.     

Numerical characterization of slope rock mass through considerations of hydraulic and mechanical properties

Landslides - In this paper, the slope rock mass is numerically characterized by considering hydraulic and mechanical properties using two distinct element models. The flow rate and permeability are...