International and national climate policies for aviation: a review

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

An integrated approach to assess the ecological and chemical status of lakes with HOD/AHOD: a case study of two lakes

The thermal strati?cation of the lakes impedes the transfer of atmospheric oxygen into the lower layers of the lake. In lakes which are af fected by diverse anthropogenic in?uences, the increasing organic matter amounts lead to a sharp decrease in hypolimnetic oxygen amounts, aided by thermal strati?cation,and anaerobic conditions arise. The determination of hypolimnetic oxygen demand(HOD) and areal hypolimnetic oxygen demand(AHOD) and their monitoring represent an integrated approach to investigate the oxygenation of lakes, the nutrient conditions, and the physicochemical dynamics. In this study, two lakes dif fering by size and af fected by dif ferent anthropogenic sources, are investigated in this respect. At?rst, bathymetric studies were conducted to determine the depth, surface area, and volume relationships.Then, based on monitoring studies conducted in 2013 and 2014, the thermal strati?cation dynamics and layer properties were established using the relative thermal resistance to mixing(RTRM) index based on temperature and density pro?les. Following this, the oxygen depletion rates were determined by oxygen and temperature pro?ling in the hypolimnion. For the years of 2013 and 2014, the AHOD values for the Borabey Pond which is far from anthropogenic in?uences, were found to be 0.848 and 0.569 g O 2/(m·d), respectively.The AHOD values for the Porsuk Reservoir which was overburdened for years by industrial and domestic pollution were found to be 4.263 and 5.099 g O 2/(m·d), larger than its counterpart by almost sevenfold. The HOD and AHOD monitoring can be considered to a valuable tool for assessing the ecological and chemical status of lakes within Annex 5 of the Water Framework Directive and as an integrated approach to assess and monitor the status of lakes.     

Surface sediment diatoms from the western Pacific marginal seas and their correlation to environmental variables

Diatom data of 192 surface sediment samples from the marginal seas in the western Pacific together with modern summer and winter sea surface temperature and salinity data were analyzed.The results of canonical correspondence analysis show that summer sea-surface salinity(SSS) is highly positively correlated with winter SSS and so is summer sea-surface temperature(SST) with winter SST.The correlations between SSSs and SSTs are less positively correlated,which may be due to interactions of regional current pa...     

A record of long-time rift activity and earthquake-induced ground effects in Pleistocene deposits of southern Tenerife (Canary Islands,Spain)

Faults with a well-defined strike direction that precisely coincides with the southern rift fault system occur in the study area in southern Tenerife. This fault system was generated contemporaneously with a chain of cinder cones ~948 ka. Open fractures in ignimbrites (~668 ka) and fossil beach deposits (~42 ka) of the El Médano area suggest that the rift-associated fault system was seismically active in the aftermath of the initial volcanic activity (~948 ka) and is probably still active. A second fault system striking perpendicular to the rift-related faults probably originates from a Holocene paleoearthquake of moderate intensity. Earthquake-induced ground effects in fossil beach deposits within the study area are consistent with seismically induced ground effects of several recent and well-documented earthquakes, as well as gravitational sliding triggered by an intense earthquake in the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica in 1990. Both, the rift-associated and the earthquake-induced fault system, initially produced open fractures that were occupied by plants and subsequently stabilized by cementation, forming conspicuous sediment structures in fossil beach deposits of the El Médano site in southern Tenerife.     

On the topographic bias in geoid determination by the external gravity field

The topographic bias is defined as the error/bias committed by continuing the external gravity field inside the topographic masses by a harmonic function. We study the topographic bias given by a digital terrain model defined by a spherical template, and we show that the topographic bias is given only by the potential of an inner-zone cap, and it equals the bias of the Bouguer shell, independent of the size of the cap. Then we study the effect on the real Earth by decomposing its topography into a template, and we show also in this case that the topographic bias is that of the Bouguer shell, independent of the shape of the terrain. Finally, we show that the topographic potential of the terrain at the geoid can be determined to any precision by a Taylor expansion outside the Earth’s surface. The last statement is demonstrated by a Taylor expansion to fourth order.     

Singular value decomposition and cluster analysis as regression diagnostics tools for geodetic applications

It is well known that high-leverage observations significantly affect the estimation of parameters. In geodetic literature, mainly redundancy numbers are used for the detection of single high-leverage observations or of single redundant observations. In this paper a further objective method for the detection of groups of important and less important (and thus redundant) observations is developed. In addition, the parameters which are predominantly affected by these groups of observations are identified. This method thus complements other diagnostics tools, such as, e.g., multiple row diagnostics methods as described in statistical literature (see, e.g., Belsley et al. in Regression diagnostics: identifying influential data and sources of collinearity. Wiley, New York, 1980). The method proposed in this paper is based on geometric aspects of adjustment theory and uses the singular value decomposition of the design matrix of an adjustment problem together with cluster analysis methods for regression diagnostics. It can be applied to any geodetic adjustment problem and can be used for the detection of (groups of) observations that significantly affect the estimated parameters or that are of negligible impact. One of the advantages of the proposed method is the improvement of the reliability of observation plans and thus the reduction of the impact of individual observations (and outliers) on the estimated parameters. This is of particular importance for the very long baseline interferometry technique which serves as an application example of the regression diagnostics tool.     

3D segmentation of single trees exploiting full waveform LIDAR data

This paper highlights a novel segmentation approach for single trees from LIDAR data and compares the results acquired both from first/last pulse and full waveform data. In a first step, a conventional watershed-based segmentation procedure is set up, which robustly interpolates the canopy height model from the LIDAR data and identifies possible stem positions of the tallest trees in the segments calculated from the local maxima of the canopy height model. Secondly, this segmentation approach is combined with a special stem detection method. Stem positions in the segments of the watershed segmentation are detected by hierarchically clustering points below the crown base height and reconstructing the stems with a robust RANSAC-based estimation of the stem points. Finally, a new three-dimensional (3D) segmentation of single trees is implemented using normalized cut segmentation. This tackles the problem of segmenting small trees below the canopy height model. The key idea is to subdivide the tree area in a voxel space and to set up a bipartite graph which is formed by the voxels and similarity measures between the voxels. Normalized cut segmentation divides the graph hierarchically into segments which have a minimum similarity with each other and whose members (= voxels) have a maximum similarity. The solution is found by solving a corresponding generalized eigenvalue problem and an appropriate binarization of the solution vector. Experiments were conducted in the Bavarian Forest National Park with conventional first/last pulse data and full waveform LIDAR data. The first/last pulse data were collected in a flight with the Falcon II system from TopoSys in a leaf-on situation at a point density of 10 points/m². Full waveform data were captured with the Riegl LMS-Q560 scanner at a point density of 25 points/m² (leaf-off and leaf-on) and at a point density of 10 points/m² (leaf-on). The study results prove that the new 3D segmentation approach is capable of detecting small trees in the lower forest layer. So far, this has been practically impossible if tree segmentation techniques based on the canopy height model were applied to LIDAR data. Compared to a standard watershed segmentation procedure, the combination of the stem detection method and normalized cut segmentation leads to the best segmentation results and is superior in the best case by 12%. Moreover, the experiments show clearly that using full waveform data is superior to using first/last pulse data.     

Conspicuous sediment structures in fossil beach deposits (southern Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain): paleoliquefaction features versus biogenic origin

Tubular-shaped concretions and concretionary dykes occur in Holocene fossil beach deposits between the township of El Médano and Punta Roja in southern Tenerife, Canary Islands. These sediment structures have been interpreted either as the result of (a) the interaction between hot ignimbrites that overflowed wet beaches; (b) fast accumulation of beach sands on hot and degassing ignimbrites; (c) paleoliquefaction caused by an earthquake (seismites). Based on the interpretation as seismites, an intense paleoearthquake with a moment magnitude of M = 6.8 was proposed to be responsible for the generation of the paleoliquefaction structures. However, we here reinterpret the sedimentary structures in question using the general criteria diagnostic for rhizocretions and root tubules with respect to their orientation, size, branching system, and style of cementation and, thus, consider them, to be of biogenic origin.     

Protein carbonyls and antioxidant defenses in corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) from a heavy metal polluted and a PAH polluted site

The use of fish in environmental monitoring has become increasingly important in recent years as anthropogenic substances, many of which function as prooxidants, are accumulating in aquatic environments. We have measured a battery of antioxidant defenses as a measure of oxidative status, as well as protein carbonylation as a measure of oxidative damage, in corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) captured near a disused copper mine, where water and sediment are contaminated with heavy metals, and an aluminum smelter, a site contaminated with PAHs. Results were compared to two different reference sites. Fish at the heavy metal site had lower glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity and elevated protein carbonyls (1.8 times) compared to fish from the reference site. At the PAH site, EROD was increased 2-fold, while total glutathione and methemoglobin reductase concentration, were decreased. No differences were seen in protein carbonyl levels at the PAH site. Measures of both antioxidant defenses and oxidative damage should be used when assessing effects of xenobiotics on oxidative stress in fish species.