基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。     

天目湖流域丘陵山区典型土地利用类型氮流失特征

天目湖丘陵山区农业综合开发持续推进,大量林地转变为茶园,迫切需要认识茶园扩张对流域氮流失的影响.本研究选取茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林开展自然降雨条件下的径流小区实验,分析天目湖丘陵山区典型用地类型径流氮流失规律,为评估丘陵山区综合开发的水环境影响提供实测参数.研究表明:茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林地表径流TN浓度分别为11.25、2.83和3.60 mg/L,均以溶解态为主;壤中流TN浓度分别为27.16、3.59和1.06 mg/L,茶园和次生马尾松林均以溶解性无机氮(尤其是硝态氮)为主,毛竹林以溶解性有机氮为主;茶园、次生马尾松林和毛竹林的小区尺度地表径流系数均不到0.03,壤中流是丘陵山区径流的主要来源;茶园开发加剧了丘陵山区的氮素流失,茶园径流TN流失强度高达103.08 kg/(hm²·a),分别是次生马尾松林和毛竹林的7.6和23.2倍,壤中流贡献了流失总量的86.7%~99.7%.防治茶园径流氮流失需重点关注壤中流输出,在减量施肥的基础上,采取坡脚构建毛竹林生态缓冲带/在小流域出口布设塘坝等原位拦截措施,实现流域氮流失综合防控.     

唐山马家沟矿井水位异常分析

地下水动态受水文因素影响较大,对地震和构造活动具有较灵敏的响应。判别并排除各种水文干扰,确认地下水在地震前的异常变化,对提高地震分析预报能力,具有重要作用。马家沟矿井水位动态观测层与地下水开采层为同一含水层,井水位于2010年出现破年变异常,加速持续上升,截至2015年,最大上升幅度约30 m。依据该井水文地质环境特征,根据唐山市区2001-2015年地下水位、降雨量、地下水开采量实测资料,建立合理多元回归模型和三维地下水流动模型,发现地下水开采量减少应为影响马家沟矿井水位动态的可能因素。文中采取的异常识别与分析方法,可为其他类似井孔的地下水动态异常识别及判定提供一定借鉴。     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

深时全球海平面变化重建方法的回顾与展望

全球海平面变化对古地理、古生物、古气候演化以及能源矿产分布具有重要的控制作用。然而,目前学界对深时海平面变化的驱动机制尚不清楚,部分归因于缺乏高精度全球海平面变化的恢复。文章回顾了全球海平面变化研究的起始与发展过程,归纳出五种类型的深时海平面变化重建方法和技术,即地层学、沉积学、洋盆动力学、同位素地球化学方法和大数据技术。并总结了上述研究方法的原理、优势和不足,并以白垩纪全球海平面重建为实例,讨论了当前深时全球海平面重建的难点和争议点,并对未来深时全球海平面变化重建进行了展望。     

Loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in conventional and emerging steel frames

Quasi-static testing is one of the most commonly used experimental methods for examining the seismic performance of structural members. However, consistent loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in emerging steel frames such as self-centering braced frames (SCBFs) as well as in some conventional ones including buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are still lacking. This paper aims to propose standardized loading protocols based on time-history dynamic analysis on a series of prototype building frames, including steel SCBFs, BRBFs, and moment-resisting frames (MRFs), where both far-field and near-fault earthquakes are considered. The methodology for the development of the loading protocols involves ground motion selection and scaling, design and analysis of prototype buildings, analysis results processing, and rainflow cycle counting, together with extra justification steps. The proposed loading protocols are consistently derived based on the MCE-level seismic hazard and 84^th percentile values of key seismic demand parameters. These parameters are number of damaging cycles N_t, maximum inter-story drift θ_max, inter-story drift range Δθ_i, sum of inter-story drift range ΣΔθ_i, and residual inter-story drift θ_r. The analysis confirms the variations in these seismic demands imposed on the different structural systems under different types of ground motions, highlighting the necessity of developing separate loading protocols for the different cases. The assumptions, decisions, and judgments made during the development of the loading protocols are elaborated, and the conditions and restrictions are outlined. The rationality of the proposed loading protocols is further justified through demonstrating the cumulative distribution function and energy dissipation demand of the systems.     

几款全球海底地形模型比较分析

近几十年,随着卫星测高技术和相关数据精密处理技术发展,依托卫星测高技术业已成为快速获取全球海底地形数据的可靠手段,国内外相关组织机构已发布了一系列全球海底地形模型。整理评述了多款全球海底地形的基本情况,以及相互间的内在联系,包括DBDB系列模型、ETOPO系列模型、Sandwell系列模型、GEBCO系列模型、SRTM+系列模型、EARTH地形球谐系数模型、BAT_VGG模型、BAT_WHU2020模型、STO_IEU2020模型等。通过对全球海底地形模型的认识和梳理,以期为下一步全球海底地形模型高效、低成本构建提供方法参考。     

宁夏盐池县相对资源承载力

采用相对资源承载力的理论与研究方法,定量分析了盐池县8个乡镇相对资源承载力时空变化及差异特征,并对承载力匹配特征进行空间表达。结果表明：盐池县辖各乡镇相对于盐池县的综合人口承载力表现出严重超载、超载和富余3种不同的状态;相对自然资源经济承载力时空变化稳定,自然资源的经济潜力不断增大;相对草地资源牲畜承载力随时间推移不断递增且空间差异明显;依据3种承载力状态组合划分了不同的承载力匹配类型,并提出不同类型的可持续发展策略。本研究可为盐池县禁牧10年后各乡镇发展提供建议,并为“退牧还草”政策的继续实施提供理论支持。     

2003年的极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件

气候变化正在进行着,极端天气和气候事件似乎在增加.2003年出现了一些创历史记录的极端事件,例如,年初俄罗斯和美国的暴风雪与严寒,3月份中东地区的强沙尘暴,印度季风前的热浪,夏季欧洲南部和中国南方大范围的炎热酷暑,6月底、7月初我国淮河流域的暴雨洪灾,9月份南极上空创历史记录最大最深的臭氧洞等等.这些极端天气和气候事件产生的机制及其可预测、预报性,有待深入的分析与研究.     

青岛夏季不同天气下气溶胶中无机氮磷的浓度及沉降研究

本文于2011年8月连续采集了青岛近岸大气气溶胶TSP(总悬浮颗粒物)样品,运用离子色谱法(IC)测定了可溶性无机氮磷组分的浓度,并估算了其干沉降通量,分析了天气过程对无机氮磷浓度的影响,讨论了大气干沉降对黄海初级生产力的影响。结果表明,夏季青岛沿海地区气溶胶颗粒物、NH+4-N、NO-3-N的平均浓度分别为139.96、9.70、3.08μg/m3,NO-2-N和PO3-4浓度很低,分别在0.15和1.00μg/m3以下;NH+4-N含量约为NO-3-N的3倍,二者之和占总无机氮的99%以上。天气过程显著影响颗粒物及无机氮的浓度和组成,雾天时,颗粒物、NH+4-N、NO-3-N的浓度分别升高到晴天时的1.48、1.98和2.21倍,大风天气下分别为晴天时的1.85、2.84和4.50倍;降雨对气溶胶存在明显的清除作用,对颗粒物和无机氮的清除率分别为7.70%~32.97%和54.16%~64.49%。气象要素和气团来源、路径对气溶胶浓度和组成的影响也十分显著。颗粒态无机氮磷的沉降通量分别为0.55和96.14μg/(m2·d),输入黄海后可产生94.51~138.30mg/(m2·month)的新生产力,对总初级生产力的贡献不大,但特殊天气下大气干沉降引起的新生产力可以在短时间内迅速增加。颗粒态无机氮磷的沉降通量之比为13.7,沉降后不会使黄海磷限制的营养盐结构产生明显变化。