塔里木河流域冰川洪水对气候变暖的响应

In past 50 years, the air temperature fluctuation was raising trend in Tarim River Basin. The annual mean temperature has increased by 0.3℃ in the whole Tarim River Basin, and by 0.6℃ in the mountain areas. With global warming, the frequency of unstable and extreme climatic events increased, glaciers retreating accelerated and snow meltwater increased have resulted in the more frequency of snow-ice disasters such as glacier debrisflow and glacier flash flood etc. Since 1980s, in the process of intense climate warming, glaciers melting intensified, ice temperature rose and glaciers flows accelerated, and lead to more glacial lakes and extending water storage capacity and stronger glacial lake outburst floods occurrence. It is proposed that the monitoring and evaluating of the impact of climate change on water resources and floods should be enhanced.     

华北区域冰雹天气分型及云系特征

基于地面加密观测资料、FY-2E静止气象卫星观测资料和NCEP分析资料,选取2010—2012年华北区域内27次冰雹过程,按大气环流背景、主要影响系统和云系的云型特征等将其分为冷涡云系尾部型、低涡槽前型和偏北气流控制型3种类型。分析结果表明:3种天气型下冰雹对流云系特征存在差异,但90%以上的冰雹过程发生在对流云团的快速发展阶段中,降雹集中出现于准圆形或椭圆形对流云团边缘或带状对流云系的传播前沿区域,对应于云顶亮温梯度的大值区。在掌握背景环境的前提下,综合分析红外图像中对流系统的发展演变、水汽图像暗带和暗区变化等信息,对冰雹的监测和预警有一定的参考价值。定量统计分析表明,大的亮温梯度值 (不低于8 ℃/0.05°) 是辅助判断冰雹能否发生的重要参量,而当冰雹云同时具备低云顶亮温和大亮温梯度的情况下,更有利于大于10 mm大冰雹的发生。     

参考作物蒸散量的多种计算方法及其结果的比较

分别用 FAO Penman- Monteith公式 (模型 1 )、FAO Penman 修正式 (模型 2 )和国内Penman修正式 (模型 3)计算了泰安和西峰两地的参考作物蒸散量 ,对 3种方法的计算结果进行了比较 .模型 1得到的参考作物蒸散量大于后 2种模型 ,导致不同模型计算偏差的原因是 3种模型各自选用了不同的辐射项和动力项计算式 ,且计算偏差随季节和地理条件而变 .建议计算区域参考作物蒸散量用模型 1 ,计算单站逐日参考作物蒸散量 3种模型都可用 .     

Geochemical characteristics,cooling history and mineralization significance of Zhangtiantang pluton in South Jiangxi Province,P.R. China

The zircon SHRIMP dating of the Zhangtiantang granite gave an age of 159±7 Ma., which shows that the granite was produced at the early Late Jurassic. The Ar-Ar plateau ages of biotite and K-feldspar from the Zhangtiantang pluton are 153.2±1.1 Ma and 135.8±1.2 Ma, respectively. The Ar-Ar anti-isochrone ages of biotite and K-feldspar are 152.5±1.7Ma and 135.4±2.7Ma, respectively. The ages represent the isotopic closure ages of minerals in the pluton. The Zhangtiantang granites are regarded as peraluminous crust-derived type granites to possess the typical geochemical characteristics of calc-alkaline rocks on continental margin, with enriched Si, K, Al (average value of A/CNK as 1.18), HREE, Rb, U, and Th, heavily depleted V, Cr, Co, Ni, Ti, Nb-Ta, Zr, Sr, P, and Ba, strongly negative Eu and common corundum normative (average value of C as 1.84). The εNd_(t) values of the Zhangtiantang granite are −5.84 to −7.79, and t _2DM values are 1.69 to 1.83 Ga, which indicates partial melting of continental-crust metamorphic sedimentary rocks during the Middle Proterozoic. The cooling history of the Zhangtiantang granitic pluton indicates that the cooling velocity of pluton was faster (about 67°C/Ma) from zircon (158 Ma) to biotite (152 Ma), and was slower (about12°C/Ma) from biotite (152.5 Ma) to K-feldspar (135.8 Ma). It can be deduced that the temporal gap (about 10 Ma) between the granite formmation and W-Sn mineralization in South China may be related to ordinary magma-hydrothermal processes by the variational cooling curve of the pluton. The Zhangtiantang pluton was formed in a compressive setting, with differentiation evolution and mineralization occurring in a relative relaxation setting.     

钱塘江江心排污的数值模拟

从立面二维非恒定流体动力学方程出发,应用κ-ε湍流模式计算流场,再用准三维的浓度对流-扩散方程,即考虑了侧向扩散的立面二维浓度控制方程,模拟了钱塘江江心6个竖管排污在潮流作用下近区浓度场,其结果和实际观测值基本吻合。     

沧县隆起北部地区地热资源特征及开发潜力

【研究目的】地热资源特征研究及开发潜力分析是开发区域地热资源的重要依据。【研究方法】本文将前人研究成果与最新钻井资料相结合,通过对沧县隆起北部地区地热地质背景、热储分布、地温场特征、水化学资源类型等主要因素进行剖析,建立了该区的地热成藏模式。【研究结果】沧县隆起北部地区是在渤海湾伸展型沉积盆地高大地热流值背景下,由北部燕山裸露区基岩接受的大气降水作为近源补给水源,进入基岩的冷水在深层循环过程中受到深部热源加热增温,沿断裂破碎带和不整合面向上运移富集,形成的以传导型传热机制为主的地热系统。【结论】本区地热资源特点为热储类型多、盖层地温梯度高、补给速度快、资源量巨大。主要表现为：区内分布馆陶组砂岩热储,奥陶系、蓟县系雾迷山组岩溶热储三套主力热水储集层;地温场分布主要受基底构造形态控制,基岩凸起区的平均地温梯度为45℃/km;地下水类型随着埋深的增加由HCO₃-Na、HCO₃·SO₄-Na型水向成熟的Cl-Na型水过渡;本区内三套热储的可采地热资源量为1.67×10¹⁰GJ,折合标煤5.72×10⁸t,年可开采地热资源量可满足供暖面积2亿m²,若在采灌平衡的条件下,沧县隆起北部地区年可采地热资源量为7.06×10⁷GJ,折合标煤2.41×10⁶t,可满足供暖面积0.85亿m²,具有良好的地热市场开发前景。     

Constructing temporal and spatial water vapor figures by GPS remote sensing along slant rays

A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver can generally track 5-7 rays from GPS satellites at any moment, and water vapor along these ray paths (slant-path water vapor, SWV) may be retrieved using the methods developed in recent years. This paper suggests two new parameters-absolute vertical SWV (VSWV) and relative VSWV derived from SWV, and their temporal and spatial figures can reflect the heterogeneous distribution and variation of water vapor field. This approach has been applied to the weather diagnoses in a severe storm event in Beijing during July 2004, and it is concluded that the temporal and spatial figures of absolute VSWV and relative VSWV can be useful in monitoring the evolution of water vapor field and be potential in better understanding the precipitation process.     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.     

Seismic inversion with generalized Radon transform based on local second-order approximation of scattered field in acoustic media

Sound velocity inversion problem based on scattering theory is formulated in terms of a nonlinear integral equation associated with scattered field. Because of its nonlinearity, in practice, linearization algorisms (Born/single scattering approximation) are widely used to obtain an approximate inversion solution. However, the linearized strategy is not congruent with seismic wave propagation mechanics in strong perturbation (heterogeneous) medium. In order to partially dispense with the weak perturbation assumption of the Born approximation, we present a new approach from the following two steps: firstly, to handle the forward scattering by taking into account the second-order Born approximation, which is related to generalized Radon transform (GRT) about quadratic scattering potential; then to derive a nonlinear quadratic inversion formula by resorting to inverse GRT. In our formulation, there is a significant quadratic term regarding scattering potential, and it can provide an amplitude correction for inversion results beyond standard linear inversion. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the linear single scattering inversion is only good in amplitude for relative velocity perturbation ( \( \delta_{c}/c_{0} \) ) of background media up to 10 %, and its inversion errors are unacceptable for the perturbation beyond 10 %. In contrast, the quadratic inversion can give more accurate amplitude-preserved recovery for the perturbation up to 40 %. Our inversion scheme is able to manage double scattering effects by estimating a transmission factor from an integral over a small area, and therefore, only a small portion of computational time is added to the original linear migration/inversion process.     

9 震前大气电场异常的物理基础

人们认识自然总是从实践到理论,再从理论到实践.没有理论指导的实践是盲目的实践,没有实践基础的理论是空洞的理论,只有理论与实践密切结合,才能有所发现,有所进步.