An Efficient and Robust Tsunami Model on Unstructured Grids. Part I: Inundation Benchmarks

A modern multi-purpose baroclinic circulation model (SELFE) has been recently extended to include the ability to simulate tsunami propagation and inundation. The core model is based on the 3-D nonlinear shallow-water wave (NSW) equations, which are solved on unstructured grids, using the finite-element method. A semi-implicit method is used to solve all equations to enhance numerical stability, thus bypassing the most stringent CFL restriction on the time step. Further aided algorithmically by an Eulerian-Lagrangian solution of the advection terms in the momentum equation and by a simple yet effective inundation algorithm, SELFE is very efficient and robust in both quasi-2-D (with two vertical layers) and 3-D modes. A quasi-2-D version of the model is being used to update and expand the characterization of tsunami hazards along the Oregon coast. As a part of a rigorous testing procedure that includes multiple types of coastal problems, we present in this paper a quantitative assessment of performance of the quasi-2-D SELFE for two challenging open benchmark problems proposed in the 3^rd International Workshop on Long-wave Runup Models. Satisfactory results are obtained for both problems.     

台风“杜苏芮”(2305)的主要特点及路径和强度预报难点分析

通过总结2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”的主要特点,并对主要的预报难点问题进行分析和研究,得出以下主要结论：（1）“杜苏芮”登陆强度强,是2023年截至10月登陆我国最强的台风,登陆后在陆上长时间维持,造成福建、安徽等地多站点风雨观测突破历史极值,黄淮、华北等地出现历史极端强降雨天气。（2）在“杜苏芮”生成初期,由于副热带高压受到多系统的影响,数值模式对于“杜苏芮”台风东侧新生热带扰动的强度、位置预报存在偏差,是产生较大路径预报偏差的原因。（3）“杜苏芮”登陆前形成双眼墙结构增加了登陆强度预报的难度,有利的形势条件和多源观测资料的应用为台风强度预报提供了良好的支撑。（4）“杜苏芮”登陆后,来自西南季风和第6号台风“卡努”共同的水汽输送、太行山地形作用以及移动路径上弱的垂直风切变均有利于台风减弱后的低压环流长时间维持。     

我国台风预报业务的现状及思考

随着数值预报模式和技术以及综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,自20世纪90年代以来我国台风业务预报取得了长足的进步,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,目前基本达到国际先进水平。通过对我国及国际台风/飓风业务预报现状的回顾,分析了目前我国台风业务预报中存在的主要问题、业务预报难点和亟待解决的科学问题,同时展望了我国台风业务预报在全球气候变化条件下,以及日益增长的国家防灾减灾需求形势下所面临的挑战,并对我国台风业务预报的未来发展做出了一些粗浅的思考,提出了改进我国台风业务预报的相关建议措施。     

1996年汛期暴雨特征分析

该文利用实测资料，采用ＨＬＡＦＳ模式计算的物理参数分析了１９９６年汛期暴雨的天气气候特征并对梅雨活跃时段４次强降雨天气过程及９６０８号台风强暴雨的成因进行了诊断分析，所得结果有利于实时预报业务和科研工作。     

Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China’s potential maize production at 50 × 50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO₂ fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO₂ fertilization effect, China’s maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today’s major maize planting areas. When the CO₂ fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.     

我国台风灾害特征及风险防范策略

对登陆我国台风气候特征及灾害发生特点进行了分析,表明台风登陆我国时间集中于每年的7—9月,年均登陆数量广东最多,而最强登陆台风出现在台湾。台风灾害导致的直接经济损失总量呈现缓慢增加趋势,人员死亡数明显下降。但死亡100人以上的特别重大台风灾害平均每年发生一次,且造成的灾情占比很大。台风灾害影响主要是其伴随的大风、暴雨及引起的滑坡、泥石流、风暴潮等次生灾害共同造成的,重大灾害往往由突发性、极端性风雨引起。为了最大限度地降低和减轻台风灾害损失和社会影响,可依靠基于风险区划的防灾能力建设降低风险,依据准确的风险预评估避让风险,依赖保险特别是政策性巨灾保险的开展转移风险。     

台风“山竹”（1822）引发华南暴雨过程机制分析

利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°的FNL再分析资料、CMORPH（CPC MORPHing technique）卫星-地面自动站融合降水数据以及FY-2G卫星反演的TBB（black-body temperature,云顶亮温）对1822号台风“山竹”在华南造成强降水过程进行了分析。结果表明：西北太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压的稳定维持有利于台风残涡持续影响华南地区;低层来自孟加拉湾的低空急流与西北太平洋副热带高压南侧偏东风汇合后建立起一条连接华南的水汽通道;在登陆台风影响下,大气视热源和视水汽汇主要来自于垂直运动释放的凝结潜热;湿位涡诊断分析表明强的水平风垂直切变导致低层大气斜压性增强,出现显著的对流不稳定。     

一种描述结构面剖面线粗糙度的新方法

采用法向矢量单位圆描述结构面剖面线粗糙度,从各微分段的角度关系阐述粗糙度,进而将二维问题转化为一维问题处理并提出"角度粗糙度"的概念.考虑到各微分段的实际长度对粗糙度的贡献,采用加权均值与加权方差定量描述角度粗糙度;角度粗糙度越大表明该剖面越粗糙.对规则剖面线与不规则剖面线采用"角度粗糙度"进行描述,所得结果跟已有的剖...     

综合遥感地质信息在成矿预测中的应用——以巴布亚新几内亚斑岩型铜金矿为例

近年来,西南太平洋地区,特别是巴布亚新几内亚已经成为世界范围内寻找铜金矿的热点地区之一,在这里连续发现了几个世界级的大型金矿和大型铜金矿。利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,对研究区提取线、环构造,岩性、地层等遥感地质信息,建立研究区成矿预测单元。基于ETM+光谱信息与蚀变矿物组合,利用比值分析和主成分分析法对预测单元进行蚀变遥感异常信息提取,结合巴布亚新几内亚火山岛弧、弧—陆碰撞带等其他特殊的地质构造环境,分析并建立了综合信息找矿标志及成矿找矿模型。据此,在研究区内分别圈定了3个等级的找矿预测远景区,包括4个1级、4个2级及2个3级预测远景区。     

Simulating compound flooding events in a hurricane

Ocean Dynamics - Compound flooding is usually induced by the concurrence of coastal storm surge and heavy precipitation induced river flooding, with the former involving oceanic processes and the...