青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的个例分析及其比较

对1995年7月25—28日高原上连续数日出现MCSs的现象进行了红外云图特征及其演变、大尺度环境背景场和对流有效位能的分析。可以发现，所有这些MCSs有着相似的日变化演变过程；它们的初始对流在中午由于日射加热开始活跃，之后迅速发展，这些MCSs在后下午形成，在傍晚达到最强，之后逐渐减弱。其中26日MCS最为强大，它是在单一的强大的近于圆形的高原反气旋高压背景下受强的低层热力强迫和条件不稳定的驱动而发生的。这些发生条件都与高原本身的热力作用紧密相关，所以它的发生发展主要与高原特有的较为纯粹的热力因子相联系。28日MCS是另一个很强的MCS，它明显地受到中纬度西风槽的斜压区的影响，这二个很强的MCS有着不同的发展机制和显著不同的表现特征。     

GPS折射角资料的变分同化试验

越来越多的新型观测资料为数值天气预报水平的进一步提高提供了许多新的机会。在各种新型的观测资料中,GPS(全球定位卫星系统)折射角资料无疑是非常重要的。GPS折射角资料具有分辨率高、全天候探测、覆盖全球等优点,实现对GPS折射角资料的变分同化,将具有非常重要的意义。文中介绍了如何获得及同化GPS折射角资料的原理。对GPS折射角资料的变分同化可以分为两种:间接同化和直接同化,文中对这两种方法都作了具体介绍。在变分同化的最小化过程中,计算效率无疑是最重要的,而优化步长的计算又直接关系到算法效率的成败。根据最小化算法的特点,通过数学推导,得出一种适合于各种最小化算法的计算优化步长的自适应方法。最后,还利用1995年10月11日的GPS折射角资料进行了数值试验,结果表明了变分同化方法和计算优化步长方法的有效性。     

The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses

Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt,and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins la     

长白山天池火山区长白-敦化剖面结晶基底的探测和研究

时间项分析法中，应用广义最小二乘法进行反演，对长白山天池火山区岩浆系统的长白—敦化(L1)剖面的Pg波到时进行了计算处理，得到了Pg波时间项及基底速度值；取上部地壳的介质平均速度为4．5km/s，经反演求得了各点的深度值，给出了长白山天池火山区结晶基底的厚度分布。结晶基底厚度一般在2．0km左右，而在长白山天池下方结晶基底最厚处接近4．0km；在万宝和敦化附近各有一不太明显的凹陷，其原因可能与在这两个位置处有几条断裂穿过有关。     

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

河南省短期区域性暴雨动力诊断及综合预报方案

介介绍了（１）用Ｔ６３数值预报产品对河南省省６－８月区域性暴雨进行物理量诊断分析。（２）用人工智能研制的河南省６－８月分片大－暴雨短短期自动化预报系统与用Ｔ６３数值预报产品资料采用逐步回归分析法和预测误差平方和最不上准则两种选取回归自变量的方法，建立处分片预报方程的综合判别预报。（３）在１９９５，１９９６年７－８月业务预报中试验结果。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF OZONE DISTRIBUTIONS AND ITS VARIATION MECHANISM*

A 2-D global chemistry-transport model is set up in this paper.The model simulates the atmospheric ozone distributions well with specified dynamical conditions.The analysis of ozone variation mechanism shows that ozone is chemically in quasi-equilibrium except for the polar night region where the variation of ozone concentration is under the control of dynamical processes,that the oxygen atoms which produce ozone are mainly provided by the photolysis of O₂ in the upper stratosphere and by the photolysis of NO₂ in the lower stratosphere and the troposphere.and that the ozone is destroyed mainly by NO_x:the reactions between NO_x and O₃ and the odd oxygen cycle contribute 80% to more than 90% of the ozone destruction.     

科尔沁沙地巴克窑地区近150年的环境演变*

在沉积和花粉分析的基础上,对科尔沁沙地东南部巴克窑地区过去150年的植被和环境演变进行了重建。巴克窑等湖泡的诞生时间是在上个世纪前期,约1837年前后。这个时间也正是科尔沁沙地东南部地区首次大规模人口移入和垦荒年代。突然增加的人类活动导致了沙丘植被的迅速破坏,而植被减少和沙丘活化引起区域水文循环的重新调整,即原来通过植物蒸腾作用输出的水量明显减弱,致使地下潜水位上升,形成一系列湖泡。以后,沙地系统的演化主要是在人类活动、气候和系统内部反馈机制的共同作用下完成的。     

综合物探在鄱阳湖铁路特大桥勘察中的应用

鄱阳湖铁路特大桥桥址位于鄱阳湖入长江的交汇处。该区地质情况复杂,断裂构造十分发育,因此地质勘探对桥址方案的比选显得尤为重要。此次有效地利用了综合物探,采用多种方法查明了岩性分区和地质构造格局,取得了良好的地质效果。充分显示了综合勘探、综合物探的优势。