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101.
北京/上海-香港客源潜力研究* 总被引:2,自引:3,他引:2
文章对内地主要城市与香港间的客源潜力进行了研究,包括居民的赴港愿望、交通方式选择,以及上述决策与收入、职业、费用、旅行时间、安全舒适性等因子的关系。分析得出:内地居民的赴港愿望和交通方式选择具有明显特征,以上海、北京为源地或中转地的居民,作为未来访港的客源,具有较大潜力,并在交通方式选择上有较强倾向性,偏好直达列车、直达飞机等便捷、快速的交通方式,且被访者的职业、收入水平等对其旅行方式选择有重要影响;对北京、上海近期与远期赴港客源潜力作了测算。 相似文献
102.
—Coseismic surface deformation provides important information needed to determine source rupture geometry and slip distribution as well as to estimate seismic moment. In this study, numerical experiments were designed to analyze and classify how free-surface topography affects surface deformation. The investigation was performed by 3-D finite element modeling. Results of this study show that crustal deformation induced by near-fault terrain is significant and can be measured with present geodetic survey techniques. The characteristics of the terrain effects show that a hill structure produces more crustal deformation than a half-space model, and that the crustal deformation of a basin structure is less than that of the half-space model. The topographic correction is in the order of five percent of the fault dislocation. On the basis of the relationship between fault offset and earthquake magnitude, it is suggested that the terrain effects on the coseismic crustal deformation of shallow earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.6 should be considered as one of the major errors in coseismic deformation modeling which ignored the surface topography on the order of 300 meters. 相似文献
103.
H. A. Loaiciga R. H. Shumway W. W. -G. Yeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(2):113-136
The properties of linear spatial interpolators of single realizations and trend components of regionalized variables are examined in this work. In the case of the single realization estimator explicit and exact expressions for the weighting vector and the variances of estimator and estimation error were obtained from a closed-form expression for the inverse of the Lagrangian matrix. The properties of the trend estimator followed directly from the Gauss-Markoff theorem. It was shown that the single realization estimator can be decomposed into two mutually orthogonal random functions of the data, one of which is the trend estimator. The implementation of liear spatial estimation was illustrated with three different methods, i.e., full information maximum likelihood (FIML), restricted maximum likelihood (RML), and Rao's minimum norm invariant quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) for the single realization case and via generalized least squares (GLS) for the trend. The case study involved large correlation length-scale in the covariance of specific yield producing a nested covariance structure that was nearly positive semidefinite. The sensitivity of model parameters, i.e., drift and variance components (local and structured) to the correlation length-scale, choice of covariance model (i.e., exponential and spherical), and estimation method was examined. the same type of sensitivity analysis was conducted for the spatial interpolators. It is interesting that for this case study, characterized by a large correlation length-scale of about 50 mi (80 km), both parameter estimates and linear spatial interpolators were rather insensitive to the choice of covariance model and estimation method within the range of credible values obtained for the correlation length-scale, i.e., 40–60 mi (64–96 km), with alternative estimates falling within ±5% of each other. 相似文献
104.
Numerical Identification of Parameters in Leaky Aquifers 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
105.
Attenuation relations of Arias intensity based on the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
H. Hwang C. K. Lin Y. T. Yeh S. N. Cheng K. C. Chen 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(7):509-517
This paper presents a derivation of attenuation relations of Arias intensity for various site conditions based on the strong-motion data recorded in the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. The data are from the mainshock and three large aftershocks with stations in the footwall area and in the area away from the fault. At each station, Arias intensity is computed from two horizontal acceleration time histories. The Arias intensity data are separated into four groups according to site classes assigned to recording stations. For each site class, the attenuation relation of Arias intensity is derived using a two-step regression analysis method. The attenuation relations established in this study can be used to estimate Arias intensity from a rupture of a thrust fault for sites in the footwall area or in the area away from the fault. 相似文献
106.
珠江口红树林湿地演变与现状的遥感分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1 Introduction Half of the mangrove wetlands in China are situated in Guangdong province (Wang and Chen, 1998). The province used to have various types of wild mangrove forests along its coastal areas. The rapid expansion of urban areas and the fast deve… 相似文献
107.
Water Resources - In the present study, long-term monitoring data were collected from the study area of the Kaoping River Basin, Taiwan. Specifically, data from six selected groundwater level... 相似文献
108.
Some of the available stochastic finite element methods are adapted and evaluated for the analyses of response of soils with uncertain properties subjected to earthquake induced random ground motion. In this study, the dynamic response of a soil mass, with finite element discretization, is formulated in the frequency domain. The spectral density function of the response variables are obtained from which the evaluation of the root-mean-squared and the most probable extreme values of the response are made. The material non-linearities are incorporated by using strain compatible moduli and damping of soils using an equivalent linear model for stress–strain behaviour of soils and an iterative solution of the response. The spatial variability of the shear modulus is described through a random field model and the earthquake included motion is treated as a stochastic process. The available formulations of direct Monte-Carlo simulation, first-order perturbation method, a spectral decomposition method with Neumann expansion and a spectral decomposition method with Polynomial Chaos are used to develop stochastic finite element analyses of the seismic response of soils. The numerical results from these approaches are compared with respect to their accuracy and computational efficiency. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
109.
元胞自动机在城市模拟中的误差传递与不确定性的特征分析 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,简称CA)已越来越多地用于地理现象的模拟中,如城市系统的演化等。城市模拟经常要使用GIS数据库中的空间信息,数据源中的误差将会通过CA模拟过程发生传递。此外,CA 模型只是对现实世界的近似模拟,这就使得其本身也具有不确定性。这些不确定因素将对城市模拟的结果产生较大的影响,有必要探讨CA在模拟过程中的误差传递与不确定性问题。本文采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CA误差的传递特征,并从转换规则、邻域结构、模拟时间以及随机变量等几个方面分析了CA不确定性产生的根源。发现与传统的GIS模型相比,城市CA模型中的误差和不确定性的很多性质是非常独特的。例如,在模拟过程中由于邻域函数平均化的影响,数据源误差将减小;随着可用的土地越来越少,该限制也使城市模拟的误差随时间而减小;模拟结果的不确定性主要体现在城市的边缘。这些分析结果有助于城市建模和规划者更好地理解CA建模的特点。 相似文献
110.
土地覆盖的短期时空变化模式研究,对土地覆盖的快速、动态监测具有重要意义,也是遥感研究的新热点。本文利用2000—2001年的时间序列Radarsat图像,采用功率谱分析方法,对土地覆盖的短期时—空变化的周期特征进行了分析,由此建立了基于时间序列影像分析的神经网络预测模型,从植被主要生长季节的时间序列雷达卫星影像获取训练样本,对研究区域的典型土地覆盖的短期动态变化过程进行了学习。学习后的模型能够利用多个时间序列的Radarsat影像对下一时刻的影像进行模拟,并进一步检测变化。在模拟结果基础上,定义相对变化距离函数和检测门限,对模拟影像及实际影像中的变化区域进行了检测。检测精度范围在66.67%(农村居民点)—91.67%(水体)之间,平均检测精度为81.66%。由于时间序列信号的引入,神经网络模型能够较好地获取土地覆盖的短期动态变化信息。 相似文献