Genetic type,distribution patterns and controlling factors of beach and bars in the second member of the Shahejie formation in the Dawangbei Sag,Bohai Bay,China

As an important reservoir type in the Bohai Bay Basin, China, lacustrine beach and bar sands which refer to the shallow water complex deposited mainly by nearshore, delta‐rim and buried hill‐related beaches as well as longshore bars were developed in a particular stage in the evolution of those faulted Cenozoic continental depressions. In the Chezhen Depression, for example, the Second Member of the Oligocene Shehejie Formation (abbr. as Es2 hereafter) formed during the rifting‐to‐thermal subsidence transitional stage. Although well developed in Es2, beach and bar sands are difficult to recognize owing to their relative thinness. The paper summarizes sedimentary characteristics of lacustrine beach and bar sands on cores and logs. Low‐angle cross‐stratification, swash stratification, as well as occasional small‐scale hummocky cross‐stratification resulted from storms can be observed in beach and bar sands. The paper distinguishes bars and beaches from each other in Es2 mainly based on the grain‐size, bed thickness, facies succession and log responses. In order to predict the distribution of beach and bars, a chrono‐stratigraphic correlation framework of Es2 in the study strata is established using a high‐resolution sequence stratigraphic approach. Es2 strata are sub‐divided into six medium‐scale cycles and the mapping of the high‐frequency cycles allows the geographic and stratigraphic distribution of both beach and bar sands to be predicted. The study shows that beach and bars are better developed in times of base‐level fall than in base‐level rise. Factors such as lake‐level fluctuation, sediment supply, palaeogeomorphology and palaeowind direction have exerted control on the formation and distribution of beach and bar sands. Finally, the genetic pattern of beach and bar sands in the Es2 unit has been constructed, which provides a foundation for the prediction of beach and bars reservoir in continental basins in general. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Responses of primary productivity to current and climate changes in the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island during the past 800 years

The biogenic silica (BSi), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and grain size were analyzed with a gravity core (3250-6) collected from the mud area in the north East China Sea. The average deposition rate of the upper core was about 0.078 cm yr^?1 based on the results of ²¹⁰Pb_ex. The mean grain size increased with depth in general. The frequency distribution of grain size showed that two marked changes of deposition environment occurred at 30 cm and 50 cm depths (about 1550 AD and 1300 AD, respectively). The variations of BSi and TOC indicated two distinct major periods of primary productivity over the past 800 years: a stage of low primary productivity corresponding to weak upwelling and low nutrient input below 30 cm depth (about 1200–1550 AD), and a stage of high primary productivity with strong currents and upwelling above 30 cm depth (about 1550–1950 AD). The stage with high primary productive appeared to be due to the northward-expanded muddy area caused by strong Asian Winter Monsoon and enhanced Yellow Sea Warm Current in winter. In conclusion, the BSi and TOC in the muddy sediments, the symbols of marine primary productivity, can be then used to investigate the evolution history of currents and relative climate change in the offshore areas.     

中国生产控制型产业减排的居民福利和区域影响

基于SAM均衡建模方法,建立面向居民福利研究的中国动态多区域社会公平CGE政策模拟模型,对比分析自然情景、生产控制型减排政策情景和最优增长情景下的区域和居民福利变化。研究发现减排政策存在明显的增长率区域分异,这将破坏在自然增长下存在的区域收敛力,导致中国区域之间的差距再度被拉大。面向减排的投资控制政策短期对于居民收入的不利影响较小,但长期影响不容忽视,需要进行居民收入保护。由于城镇退休居民和农村劳动居民已经具备针对性的养老保障政策和“三农政策”保护收入增长,其总体福利受减排政策的冲击较小,因此缺乏相应政策支持的城镇劳动居民应该是收入保护的优先考虑群体。模拟显示减排政策更有利于代际和城乡人均收入差距的缩小,但考虑到减排带来的绝对收入水平下降,不能过于乐观估计这种差距缩小效应。     

STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM) and superensemble (SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean (EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.     

夏季台湾浅滩周边海域叶绿素a荧光垂直分布对温盐的响应分析

根据2004年7-8月台湾海峡南部台湾浅滩周边海域的温度、盐度和叶绿素a荧光的观测资料,分析了调查期间温度、盐度、叶绿素a荧光垂直分布特征及其相互关系.结果表明,温盐环境因子的变化对叶绿素a荧光垂直分布有重要影响.夏季浅滩西侧近岸区出现的温盐跃层控制着叶绿素a荧光的垂直分层特征;浅滩南部陆架斜坡区中下层涌升水较强,于温盐跃层之中出现叶绿素a荧光的单峰;浅滩区水浅,基本上无(或弱)温盐跃层,叶绿素a荧光的垂向分布也较均匀;在浅滩区边缘,受上升流与浅滩强潮混合作用影响,叶绿素a对温盐的响应呈线性关系.     

利用地震属性解释煤层冲刷带

把地震属性技术和地震相分析技术应用于煤层冲刷带的解释工作中。首先从煤层反射波中提取了多种地震属性;然后分析对比地震属性与煤层冲刷带的响应特征;最后利用响应特征明显的地震属性对煤层冲刷带进行了综合解释,确定了煤层冲刷带的范围。与传统钻探解释方法相比,地震属性方法能够更准确地圈定煤层冲刷带的边界。     

青藏高原北部温泉活动沉积盆地的沉积特征及其地质意义

晚新生代温泉沉积盆地，是青藏高原腹地在南北向挤压、东西向伸展的构造背景下，沿南北向边界走滑断层，经边界正断层和内部张剪断层的进一步发展而形成的近南北向单断单剪楔形半地堑活动沉积盆地。它可能代表了晚新生代青藏高原第三期强烈挤压隆升事件，是侧向向东剪切挤出的结果。笔者以盆地充填序列和TL、ESR测年资料为主要依据，推测唐古拉山在300～250ka前后全面进入冰冻圈；而以温泉活动沉积盆地为代表的中更新世晚期(224．0～150．2ka)的冰碛一冰水堆积则对应于青藏高原第三期隆升的断陷盆地发育阶段；中更新世晚期一晚更新世中期(144．0～56ka)为湖相沉积；晚更新世中期至今(35～0ka)对应于高原缓慢隆升与夷平发育阶段。长江溯源在35ka切割通天河盆地，形成通天河；而在16kat浸蚀切穿雁石坪一温泉兵站峡谷，形成布曲河。     

基于信息量模型的云南东川泥石流易发性评价

以东川泥石流为研究对象,选取高程、坡度、坡向、起伏度、曲率、工程岩组、距断层距离、距水系距离、土地利用类型9个影响因子,以研究区144条泥石流为样本数据,建立了东川泥石流易发性评价体系。基于GIS平台,采用信息量模型计算各个评价指标状态分级的信息量值,以小流域为评价单元使用自然间断法将研究区泥石流易发程度分为极高、高、中和低4个易发区等级。结果表明：研究区极高易发区和高易发区发生泥石流灾害数量占比94.44%,AUC值为0.876,表明选取评价指标合理,信息量模型适用于东川泥石流易发性评价研究。     

Meta-synthesis pattern of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction: based on actual investigation on 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

A devastating Ms8.0 earthquake struck Wenchuan on May 12, 2008, a historical county in Sichuan Province, southwest China, which affected more than half of China. This article makes a comparative study on the pre-earthquake prevention and post-earthquake reconstruction of 14 world-famous earthquakes in the last 100 years, generalizes the various problems in the process of recovery and reconstruction and analyzes the reasons for the enormous damage caused by these earthquakes. Through theoretical research and field investigation on post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction, the meta-synthesis pattern has been summarized and developed. Its ideological foundation is meta-synthesis methodology, concrete expression is Wuli–Shili–Renli three-dimensional approach, and practical realization using an integrated framework. Taking post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction as a complicated systematic project, from the vertical perspective, the whole process can be roughly divided into the phases of transitional recovery and comprehensive reconstruction. While from the horizontal perspective, each phase should have its own support systems. From an investigation of the systematic planning and comprehensive implementation, it can be concluded that post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction has made remarkable achievements over the past 3 years. Since disasters continue to threaten humanity around the world, especially climate-induced extreme weather events, other countries could formulate applicable integrated programs for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, taking the Wenchuan experience as a reference.     

中国大陆东部强震区和火山区人工地震探测研究综述

介绍了东北、华北、华东和华南的强震区和火山区的地震测深研究成果,揭示了强震区和火山区的地壳深部构造背景.分析表明,地壳深部断裂、中下地壳低速层、速度结构的差异、波速比异常、泊松比和岩性的不同、上地幔顶部隆起、莫霍界面较大的起伏、复杂的壳幔过渡带、滑脱构造、深部岩浆活动等构造特征与东部地区强震形成和发生有较为密切的关系.