苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局

基于苏北地区2008年卫星遥感影像,通过运用空间插值、空间关联指数、空间变差函数等空间测度模型,深入分析了苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局特征。结果表明:在空间分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落具有"南密北疏"的特征;在规模分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落表现出很强的空间自相关性,并出现高值簇的空间集聚,其主要集中于徐州、连云港和宿迁等地,总体上呈现"南低北高"的空间分布特征;在形态分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落形态的空间分布格局具有较好的连续性和稳定性。空间分异格局中的随机成份较低,而由空间自相关引起的结构化分异则较为显著。从不同方向来看,苏北地区乡村聚落形态分布表现出一定的各向异性,其中东南-西北方向的乡村聚落形态呈现出明显的阶梯状分布特征,自东南向西北,聚落形态具体表现为由带状、长矩形、矩形到方形或不规则团块状的渐进性演变。总体来看,苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局具有明显的空间依赖性。     

Identification of the “source” and “sink” patterns influencing non-point source pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point source pollution is one of the primarily ecological issues affecting the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. In this paper, landscape resistance and motivation coefficient, which integrated various landscape elements, such as land use, soil, hydrology, topography, and vegetation, was established based on the effects of large-scale resistance and motivation on the formation of non-point source pollution. In addition, cost models of the landscape resistance and motivation coefficients were constructed based on the distances from the landscape units to the sub-basin outlets in order to identify the “source” and “sink” patterns affecting the formation of non-point source pollution. The results indicated that the changes in the landscape resistance and motivation coefficients of the 16 sub-basins exhibited inverse relationships to their spatial distributions. The landscape resistance and motivation cost curves were more volatile than the landscape resistance and motivation coefficient curves. The landscape resistance and motivation cost trends of the 16 sub-basins became increasingly apparent along the flow of the Yangtze River. The landscape resistance and motivation cost models proposed in this paper could be used to identify large-scale non-point source pollution “source” and “sink” patterns. Moreover, the proposed model could be used to describe the large-scale spatial characteristics of non-point source pollution formation based on “source” and “sink” landscape pattern indices, spatial localization, and landscape resistance and motivation coefficients.     

末次间冰期南半球西风急流变化的模拟研究

研究末次间冰期气候变化有助于加深理解变暖情景下气候的变化规律及其对轨道参数变化的响应特征。本研究利用国际古气候模拟对比计划第四阶段的多模式结果, 分析了南半球副热带西风急流(200 hPa)与副极地西风急流(850 hPa)在末次间冰期的变化特征及机制。多模式集合平均结果表明, 末次间冰期夏季南半球副热带西风急流相较于工业革命前位置偏北(+2.5°), 强度偏弱(-5.3%); 南半球副极地西风急流也存在类似的变化特征(+1.1°/-7.4%)。在冬季, 末次间冰期南半球副热带西风急流相较于工业革命前南移增强(-0.8°/+5.6%), 而南半球副极地西风急流北移增强(+0.8°/+4.2%), 并且不同洋盆上空的急流具有不同的变化特征。副热带急流与副极地西风急流位置与强度的变化分别与对流层中高层与低层的斜压稳定性的变化相联系。此外, 热带非绝热加热与中纬度Rossby波传播的共同作用造成了南印度洋西侧与东侧、高层与低层西风急流反向变化的结果, 这种反向变化得到了降水重建的支持。

     

边界层参数化方案对暴雨数值模拟的影响

大气边界层(Atmospheric Boundary Layer,ABL)是自由大气和地球表面(陆地和海洋)的连接层,它对于降水的发生发展有重要影响。ABL高度是ABL的一个重要参数,主要应用于大气数值天气(或气候)模式中的ABL过程的参数化,获取准确的ABL高度数据对于提高数值天气预报模式、空气污染物预报模式等的预报精度具有重要作用。概述了利用常规探空资料、卫星遥感资料、气溶胶后向散射资料、全球导航卫星系统GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)掩星探测资料等数据估计ABL高度的主要方法及进展情况,提出在同时具有多种观测资料时如何处理ABL高度的三个基本原则,并以目前广泛应用的数值天气预报模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)为例重点介绍ABL高度数据在数值天气(或气候)预报模式中的应用,对相关的发展情况进行了总结展望。

     

河北省生产力布局调整构想

简述河北省生产力布局现状 ,分析生产力布局条件和国家区域发展战略的变化 ,提出强化石家庄市、唐山市经济中心职能 ;重点开发沿海地带和石黄轴线地带 ;引导生产力布局向京津周围和沿海地区集聚的构想     

综合物探方法在湖南香花岭矿田三合圩矿区深部成矿规律研究中的应用

通过在香花岭矿田三合圩矿区开展地面高精度磁法快速掌握了磁异常分布特征,并推测磁异常与NE向断裂带有关,再利用可控源音频大地电磁测深对磁异常进行解析,发现中深部存在连续高阻隆起异常,推断为隐伏岩体,在此基础之上对磁异常进行了半定量反演,发现磁性体呈似层状赋存于岩体外接触带且位于低阻异常带中。利用物探推断成果选择有利部位进行钻探揭露,钻孔ZK502、ZK1601和ZK3001成功验证推断的隐伏岩体并在跳马涧组砂岩中揭露了高品位锡、铅锌多金属矿。结合钻孔、物探成果和地质背景等,对本矿区成矿规律进行了综合分析研究,建立了成矿模型,并圈定了下一步找矿靶区。利用综合物探方法对深部成矿预测具有良好效果。     

Predicting the visualization intensity for interactive spatio-temporal visual analytics: a data-driven view-dependent approach

The continually increasing size of geospatial data sets poses a computational challenge when conducting interactive visual analytics using conventional desktop-based visualization tools. In recent decades, improvements in parallel visualization using state-of-the-art computing techniques have significantly enhanced our capacity to analyse massive geospatial data sets. However, only a few strategies have been developed to maximize the utilization of parallel computing resources to support interactive visualization. In particular, an efficient visualization intensity prediction component is lacking from most existing parallel visualization frameworks. In this study, we propose a data-driven view-dependent visualization intensity prediction method, which can dynamically predict the visualization intensity based on the distribution patterns of spatio-temporal data. The predicted results are used to schedule the allocation of visualization tasks. We integrated this strategy with a parallel visualization system deployed in a compute unified device architecture (CUDA)-enabled graphical processing units (GPUs) cloud. To evaluate the flexibility of this strategy, we performed experiments using dust storm data sets produced from a regional climate model. The results of the experiments showed that the proposed method yields stable and accurate prediction results with acceptable computational overheads under different types of interactive visualization operations. The results also showed that our strategy improves the overall visualization efficiency by incorporating intensity-based scheduling.     

中国生产控制型产业减排的居民福利和区域影响

基于SAM均衡建模方法,建立面向居民福利研究的中国动态多区域社会公平CGE政策模拟模型,对比分析自然情景、生产控制型减排政策情景和最优增长情景下的区域和居民福利变化。研究发现减排政策存在明显的增长率区域分异,这将破坏在自然增长下存在的区域收敛力,导致中国区域之间的差距再度被拉大。面向减排的投资控制政策短期对于居民收入的不利影响较小,但长期影响不容忽视,需要进行居民收入保护。由于城镇退休居民和农村劳动居民已经具备针对性的养老保障政策和“三农政策”保护收入增长,其总体福利受减排政策的冲击较小,因此缺乏相应政策支持的城镇劳动居民应该是收入保护的优先考虑群体。模拟显示减排政策更有利于代际和城乡人均收入差距的缩小,但考虑到减排带来的绝对收入水平下降,不能过于乐观估计这种差距缩小效应。