珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。     

亚暴事件中磁尾多重等离子体团的数值研究（Ⅰ）

GEOTAIL卫星于1994年1月15日亚暴期间,在深磁尾（x＝96RE）观测到多重等离子体团及与之相对应的高能离子爆,作者以宁静磁尾平衡位形为初态,考虑介质的可压缩性,数值研究亚暴期间磁尾动力学过程．计算结果展现了等离子体团间歇性形成及其运动发展过程．体现了强亚暴事件中储存于碰尾的能量,通过多重等离子体团的排放而逐渐释放的进程．数值结果还表明：持续施加于边界上的晨昏电场及由此引发的驱动重联是导致等离子体团准周期形成的主要因素．此外,作者还考察尾瓣内任一点磁场强度及其分量随时间的演化,它与行进压缩区（TCRs）的观测特征基本相符．     

Modulation by biogenic amines for the hemocyte count and prophenoloxidase exocytosis via receptors in Litopenaeus vannamei

Hemocyte counts and phenoloxidase(PO)activity were examined after hemolymph being incubated in dopamine(DA),noradrenaline(NE)and serotonin(5-HT).Results showed that all the three biogenic amines(BAs)had a significant impact on total hemocyte count(THC),differential hemocyte count(DHC),and intracelluar and extracelluar phenoloxidase(PO)activity.Among these Bas,DA had the strongest effect on the above parameters,whereas 5-HT had the least effect.Preincubation with D1 receptor antagonist SCH23390,D2 receptor antagonist Sulpiride and 1:1 admixture of the two could significantly inhibit the effect of DA on these parameters.SCH23390 showed a stronger inhibitory effect than Sulpiride,and the admixture exhibited the strongest effect.These results suggested that the change of hemocyte count and activation of prophenoloxidase(proPO)system in Litopenaeusvan-namei hemocyte can be regulated by BAs,and DA modulates the two parameters via its receptors.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

区域生态承载力预警评估方法及案例研究

本文针对国家资源环境承载能力监测预警评估中生态承载力评估的需求,探讨了生态承载力及预警的定义与内涵,从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,并以京津冀地区为例开展了案例研究。主要结论为：生态承载力是指生态系统提供服务功能、预防生态问题、保障区域生态安全的能力。生态承载力预警评估的实质是评估人类活动是否及在多大程度上影响生态系统在水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙等主要服务功能的提供,是否产生了生态环境问题,是否影响到区域的生态安全。其评价流程主要包括：区域生态承载力评价指标选取及评价方法和阈值的确定、生态承载力预警状况及变化趋势分析、成因解析等内容。本文提出的生态承载力预警评价的方法及案例,可为全国及区域生态承载力的评估提供基础。     

中资企业研发国际化研究述评

中资跨国公司研发国际化服务于中国"全面提高开放型经济水平"和"创新驱动发展战略"两大政策方针,是重要的地理学研究前沿。本文系统评述了中资企业研发国际化的定义、理论基础、研究内容、数据和方法,发现基于发达国家跨国公司实践建立起的经典理论还不足以解释中资企业行为。相比于快速发展的中资企业跨国研发活动行为,现有的实证研究存在着研究视角、内容和方法的局限,未来应发扬地理学多尺度研究的优势,综合分析企业研发国际化与区域发展的互动机制;发扬地理学重视区域差异的优势,开展在"一带一路"国家中资企业研发国际化的异质性研究;发扬地理学重视实地调研的优势,综合多种方法和数据的相互印证。     

天山高山冰缘环境的融冻泥流作用

根据实地观测结果分析，本文得出：天山冰缘环境发育的融冻泥流分布在海拔２５００─３６００ｍ间的阴坡。融冻泥流发育要求地下含水丰富，粒度以细粉砂为主，地表坡度１０─３１°。融冻泥流的形态多数为长宽比小于１的叶状，少量为舌状。融冻泥流表面平均运动速度为１１．１４ｃｍ／ａ，舌前缘前进的平均速度的１．８６ｃｍ／ａ，中轴部位的运动速度比两侧大。     

质子化壳聚糖吸附除磷效能研究

本研究通过质子化方法强化壳聚糖的除磷效果,研究壳聚糖的质子化度、吸附时间、磷的存在形态等因素对质子化壳聚糖除磷效果的影响,结果表明,壳聚糖对水中总磷及磷酸根的吸附效果随着其质子化度的升高而呈现明显加强的趋势;质子化壳聚糖对水中总磷的吸附量随着时间的延长而增加,吸附时间在70-80min时达到最大吸附量;水溶液中磷的存在形态,影响质子化壳聚糖的除磷效果。     

南大洋氟的生物地球化学研究——Ⅰ.南极磷虾富氟异常的研究

本文通过对南极磷虾不同部位中氟含量的测定,结合氟在测区环境中的分布特征及南极磷虾体中其它元素的分析资料,讨论了氟在磷虾体内的分布和赋存形式,并对其可能的富集机理及与环境的关系作了初步的探讨。     

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.