The Negev continental bridge: a chain in an intermodal transport system

This paper is a second follow-up discussion concerning the role, economic viability and operational characteristics of the Negev Continental Bridge in the fluid geo-political atmosphere of the Middle East. The two previous papers (Geoforum8, 29–32 and 311–318) discussed the viability of the Israeli Continental Bridge as an alternative to the Suez Canal. Now, two years after the Canal was re-opened for use by Israeli vessels, the annual amount of cargo movement across the Israeli land bridge is still growing, although it is less economical than the Suez Canal. It is thus suggested that there is a need to view the continental bridge as one part of a chain in an intermodal transport system.     

Quasi-static and Quasi-dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Failure at Intermediate Scales

We present a model for earthquake failure at intermediate scales (space: 100 m–100 km, time: 100 m/v _shear- 1000’s of years). The model consists of a segmented strike–slip fault embedded in a 3-D elastic solid as in the framework of Ben-Zion and Rice (1993). The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of the regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction laws with possible gradual healing, and stress transfer based on the solution of Chinnery (1963) for static dislocations in an elastic half-space. As a new ingredient, we approximate the dynamic rupture on a continuous time scale using a finite stress propagation velocity (quasi–dynamic model) instead of instantaneous stress transfer (quasi–static model). We compare the quasi–dynamic model with the quasi–static version and its mean field approximation, and discuss the conditions for the occurrence of frequency-size statistics of the Gutenberg–Richter type, the characteristic earthquake type, and the possibility of a spontaneous mode switching from one distribution to the other. We find that the ability of the system to undergo a spontaneous mode switching depends on the range of stress transfer interaction, the cell size, and the level of strength heterogeneities. We also introduce time-dependent log (t) healing and show that the results can be interpreted in the phase diagram framework. To have a flexible computational environment, we have implemented the model in a modular C++ class library.     

A unified scheme for processing GPS dual-band phase observations

A unified computational scheme is presented for sequential least-squares processing ofGPS dual-band carrier-beat-phase observations in network-mode positioning with orbit relaxation, and in orbit determination applications. This scheme is applicable to any spatial and temporal distribution of stations and satellites during a particularGPS experiment. Full covariance matrices can be specified for carrier-beat-phases and for weighted constraints on the ionosphere in order to improve phase ambiguity resolution. Physically meaningful choices for these covariance matrices are developed.     

A demonstration of 1–2 parts in 107 accuracy using GPS

By interferometric analysis ofGPS phase observations made at Owens Valley, Mojave, and Mammoth Lakes, California, we determined the coordinate components of the71–245–313 km triangle of baselines connecting these sites. A separate determination was made on each of four days, April 1–4, 1985. The satellite ephemerides used in these determinations had been derived from observations on other baselines. Therms scatters of the four daily determinations of baseline vector components about their respective means ranged from a minimum of6 mm for the north component of the71-km baseline to a maximum of34 mm for the vertical component of the245-km baseline. To test accuracy, we compared the mean of ourGPS determinations of the245-km baseline between Owens Valley and Mojave with independent determinations by others using very-long-baseline interferometry(VLBI) and satellite laser ranging(SLR). TheGPS-VLBI difference was within 2 parts in10 ⁷ for every vector component. TheGPS-SLR difference was within6 parts in10 ⁸ in the horizontal coordinates, but83 mm in height.     

Least squares parameter estimation in chaotic differential equations

A recent least squares algorithm, which is designed to adapt implicit models to given sets of data, especially models given by differential equations or dynamical systems, is reviewed and used to fit the Hénon-Heiles differential equations to chaotic data sets.This numerical approach for estimating parameters in differential equation models, called theboundary value problem approach, is based on discretizing the differential equations like a boundary value problem,e.g. by a multiple shooting or collocation method, and solving the resulting constrained least squares problem with a structure exploiting generalized Gauss-Newton-Method (Bock, 1981).Dynamical systems like the Hénon-Heiles system which can have initial values and parameters that lead to positive Lyapunov exponents or phase space filling Poincaré maps give rise to chaotic time series. Various scenarios representing ideal and noisy data generated from the Hénon-Heiles system in the chaotic region are analyzedw.r.t. initial conditions, parameters and Lyapunov exponents. The original initial conditions and parameters are recovered with a given accuracy. The Lyapunov spectrum is then computed directly from the identified differential equations and compared to the spectrum of the true dynamics.presently at IWR, Universität Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 368, D-6900 Heidelberg, Germany     

Multi-resolution clustering analysis and 3-D visualization of multitudinous synthetic earthquakes

We use modern and novel techniques to study the problems associated with detection and analysis of multitudinous seismic events, which form the background for isolated great earthquakes. This new approach involves multivariate analysis of low and large magnitude events recorded in space over a couple of centuries in time. We propose here the deployment of the clustering scheme both for extracting small local structures and large-scale trends in synthetic data obtained from four numerically simulated models with: uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-heterogeneity fault zone (M). The mutual nearest neighbor (mnn) clustering scheme allows for extraction of multi-resolutional seismic anomalies in both the spatio-temporal and multi-dimensional feature space. We demonstrate that the large earthquakes are correlated with a certain pathway of smaller events. Visualization of the anomalies by using a recently introduced visualization package Amira reveals clearly the spatio-temporal relationships between clusters of small, medium and large earthquakes, indicating significant stress relaxation across the entire fault region. We demonstrate that this mnn scheme can extract distinct clusters of the smallest events, which precede and follow a singularly large magnitude earthquake. These clusters form larger spatio-temporal structures comprising a series of large earthquakes. The link between the large and medium magnitude events is not so clearly understood. Short-ranged correlations are dominated by strong spatio-temporal anomalies, thus reflecting the global seismic properties of the entire fault zone.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.     

Three-dimensional configuration and dynamics of the fresh–saline water interface near two saline lakes with different levels (Middle East)

A typical fresh–saline water interface in a coastal aquifer is characterized by saline-water circulation below the interface and freshwater flow above. Both flows are perpendicular to the shoreline. The flow pattern near two separated saline lakes is more complicated. For example, in the Middle East, the Dead Sea northern basin and the evaporation ponds of the Dead Sea Works are adjacent to each other but separated. The northern basin level is dropping by 1.1 m/year and the evaporation ponds’ levels are increasing by 0.2 m/year. The fresh–saline water interface in such situation is numerically simulated. Streamlines parallel or semiparallel to the shoreline are significant. Moreover, the fresh–saline water interface intrudes landward adjacent to the higher saline lake and is pushed lakeward adjacent to the lower saline lake. The simulation results support field observations showing that the interface migrates vertically at a faster rate relative to the changes in the water table and the lake levels.

     

Predominant period and equivalent viscous damping ratio identification for a full‐scale building shake table test

The predominant period and corresponding equivalent viscous damping ratio, also known in various loading codes as effective period and effective damping coefficient, are two important parameters employed in the seismic design of base‐isolated and conventional building structures. Accurate determination of these two parameters can reduce the uncertainty in the computation of lateral displacement demands and interstory drifts for a given seismic design spectrum. This paper estimates these two parameters from data sets recorded from a full‐scale five‐story reinforced concrete building subjected to seismic base excitations of various intensities in base‐isolated and fixed‐base configurations on the outdoor shake table at the University of California, San Diego. The scope of this paper includes all test motions in which the yielding of the reinforcement has not occurred and the response can still be considered ‘elastic’. The data sets are used with three system identification methods to determine the predominant period of response for each of the test configurations. One of the methods also determines the equivalent viscous damping ratio corresponding to the predominant period. It was found that the predominant period of the fixed‐base building lengthened from 0.52 to 1.30 s. This corresponded to a significant reduction in effective system stiffness to about 16% of the original stiffness. The paper then establishes a correlation between predominant period and peak ground velocity. Finally, the predominant periods and equivalent viscous damping ratios recommended by the ASCE 7‐10 loading standard are compared with those determined from the test building. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.