Three analyitcal solutions of saltwater intrusion under uncertain hydrologic, hydrogeologic, and pumping conditions are presented.
These solutions extends the existing deterministic, sharp interface solutions to stochastic ones. The randomness is represented
in terms of statistical measures of mean, standard deviation and covariance. The analysis is based on perturbation using Taylor
series expansion. Simulations based on probability distribution are conducted for verification. 相似文献
The Sebei gasfield is the largest biogas accumulation found in China and many reservoirs and seal rocks superposed on a syndepositional anticline in Quaternary. The biogas charging and dissipating process and its distribution have been a research focus for many years. The authors suggest a diffusing and accumulating model for the biogas, as they find that the shallower the gas producer, the more methane in the biogas, and the lighter stable carbon isotope composition of methane. Based on the diffusing model, diffused biogas is quantitatively estimated for each potential sandy reservoir in the gasfield, and the gas charging quantity for the sandy reservoir is also calculated by the diffused gas quantity plus gas reserve in-place. A ratio of diffusing quantity to charging quantity is postulated to describe biogas accumulating state in a sandy reservoir, if the ratio is less than 0.6, the reservoir forms a good gas-pool and high-production layer in the gasfield, which often occurs in the reservoirs deeper than 900 m; if the ratio is greater than 0.6, a few gas accumulated in the reservoir, which frequently exists in the reservoirs shallower than 900 m. Therefore, a biogas accumulation model is built up as lateral direct charging from gas source for the sands deeper than 900 m and indirect charging from lower gas-bearing sands by diffusion at depth shallower than 900 m. With this charging and diffusion quantitative model, the authors conducted re-evaluation on each wildcat in the central area of the Qaidam Basin, and found many commercial biogas layers.
Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of
a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend
to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly
with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B0 (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R0 (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is
more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can
cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B0 and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through
analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic
storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the
observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The
possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly. 相似文献
Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies. 相似文献
This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on three-dimensional scour below offshore pipelines subject to steady currents. The major emphasis of the investigation is on the scour propagation velocity along the pipeline after the scour initiation. Physical experiments were conducted to quantify the effects of various parameters on scour propagation velocity along the pipeline in a water flume of 4 m wide, 2.5 m deep and 50 m long. Local scour depths directly below the model pipeline were measured using specifically developed conductivity scour probes. Effects of various parameters such as pipeline embedment depth, incoming flow Shields parameter and flow incident angle (relative to the pipeline) on scour propagation velocity along the pipeline were investigated. It was found that scour propagation velocity generally increases with the increase of Shields parameter but decreases with the increase of the pipeline embedment depth. A general predictive formula for scour propagation velocity is proposed and validated against the experimental results. 相似文献