Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model

Due to the complex characteristics of drought, drought risk needs to be quantified by combining drought vulnerability and drought hazard. Recently, the major focus in drought vulnerability has been on how to calculate the weights of indicators to comprehensively quantify drought risk. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA), a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and the equal-weighting method (EWM) were applied to objectively determine the weights for drought vulnerability assessment in Chungcheong Province, located in the west-central part of South Korea. The PCA provided larger weights for agricultural and industrial factors, whereas the GMM computed larger weights for agricultural factors than did the EWM. The drought risk was assessed by combining the drought vulnerability index (DVI) and the drought hazard index (DHI). Based on the DVI, the most vulnerable region was CCN9 in the northwestern part of the province, whereas the most drought-prone region based on the DHI was CCN12 in the southwest. Considering both DVI and DHI, the regions with the highest risk were CCN12 and CCN10 in the southern part of the province. Using the proposed PCA and GMM, we validated drought vulnerability using objective weighting methods and assessed comprehensive drought risk considering both meteorological hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability.

     

人类从哪里来？——（4）人类演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化

详细介绍了8 Ma以来全球气候变化的规律,研究表明地球上主要发生过3次冷气候事件：第一次冷气候事件大约发生在距今7 Ma,一股强烈的干冷气流刮过欧洲大陆,穿越赤道地区直达非洲大陆,使得原始森林开始萎缩,面积的缩小导致古猿与人类发生演化分异;第二次冷气候事件大约发生在距今4.2 Ma,那时干冷气候持续发展,非洲大陆的原始森林进一步萎缩,并逐渐演化为稀树草原,出现了南方猿人和傍人;第三次冷气候事件大约发生在距今2.3 Ma,全球气候变化波动较大,冷-暖气候交替发育,地球上出现了真正意义上的人（人属）,并逐渐演化成现代人。根据目前的研究,人类的起源和演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化密切相关,人类演化历史大致可分为7个时期：撒海尔猿人—原初猿人时期、地居猿人时期、南方猿人—傍人时期、能人—鲁道夫人时期、匠人—直立人时期、先驱人—海德堡人时期和智人时期。     

人类从哪里来？——（5）北京直立人真的是东亚人的直系祖先吗？

简要介绍了北京周口店北京直立人发现的过程、已发现的化石材料、现存的化石材料及首批复制的头盖骨模型。描述了北京直立人的主要形态特征,讨论了直立人与现代人在形态特征上的差异,认为包括北京直立人在内的东亚地区直立人是一个灭绝的支系,没有留下后代,不是现代东亚人或中国人的直系祖先。大约在2.0 Ma前,直立人起源于非洲的匠人或能人,而后走出非洲扩散到欧洲和亚洲。非洲的直立人约在90万a前演化为先驱人,约在60万a前演化为海德堡人,约在30万a前演化为尼安德特人、丹尼索瓦人和包括现代人在内的智人。推测从非洲向欧洲扩散的海德堡人后来有可能演化为尼安德特人,而向亚洲扩散的海德堡人后来可能演化为丹尼索瓦人和智人。讨论了北京直立人的分类位置和名称有效性问题,认为亚种不可能单独存在,必须有2个或2个以上的亚种才有效。当前需进一步深化研究北京直立人,探讨周口店的直立人与爪哇岛的直立人究竟有无差别。如果二者没有差别,那么周口店发现的直立人北京亚种（Homo erectus pekinensis）就不是有效名称,应直接归于直立人（Homo erectus）,称为“发现于北京的直立人”（Homo erectusunearthed from Beijing）。如果二者差异明显,有2种处理方法：一是直接提升为种,称为“北京人”（Homo pekinensis）;二是保持现状,仍然称为“直立人北京亚种”（Homo erectus pekinensis）,但印尼爪哇岛发现的直立人学名需作变动,应称为“直立人直立人亚种”（Homo erectus erectus）。     

A Critical Comparison of Three Methods for Time-Lapse Time-Shift Calculation

Time-shift, one of the most popular time-lapse seismic attributes, has been widely used in dynamic reservoir characterization by linking it with pressure and geomechanical changes. Therefore, it is important to select appropriate calculation methods according to different time-lapse seismic data quality and time-shift magnitude. To date, there have been various published works comparing different time-shift calculation methods and discussing their advantages and disadvantages. However, most of these comparisons are based only on synthetic tests or single field applications. As the quality of time-lapse seismic data and time-shift magnitude can vary in different fields, one method may not work consistently well for each case. In this paper, a critical comparison of three different time-shift calculation techniques (Hale’s fast cross-correlation, Rickett’s non-linear inversion, and Whitcombe’s correlated leakage method) is provided. The three methods are applied to a set of synthetic data sets that are designed to account for various seismic noise and time-shift magnitudes. They are also applied to four real time-lapse seismic data sets from three North Sea fields. The calculated time-shift results are compared with the input (in synthetic tests) or the real observations from information such as seabed subsidence and compaction (in field applications). Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons are performed. At the end, each of the time-shift methods is evaluated based on different aspects, and the most appropriate method is suggested for each data scenario. All three time-shift methods are found to successfully measure time-shifts. However, Rickett’s non-linear inversion is the most outstanding method, as it gives smooth time-shifts with relatively good accuracy, and the derived time strains are more stable and interpretable.

     

碳市场顶层设计路线图

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

西藏普兰石英岩中发现41亿年碎屑锆石

在西藏普兰县石英岩中,利用SHRIMPU-Pb法测年发现4.1Ga碎屑锆石。该年龄为目前中国最老单颗粒碎屑年龄。>4.0Ga锆石两测点的Th/U值介于0.76~0.86之间,属岩浆锆石。这一发现,为研究青藏高原的地质演化提供了重要的年龄数据。     

东亚夏季风推进过程的气候特征及其年代际变化

利用1951~2001年NECP的逐日再分析资料及中国东部366站1957~2000年逐日降水资料,提出东亚夏季风推进过程的定量指标,分析东亚夏季风推进过程的年代际变化。结果表明：标准降水指数为1.5的等值线较好反映了中国东部夏季雨带的南北移动,以及雨带推进过程中呈现的阶段性与突变性特征。东亚夏季风的推进过程具有显著年代际变化,与夏季风前沿位置有关的指标在20世纪60年代中期前后发生显著变化,与夏季风推进强度有关的指标则在70年代末出现突变。60年代中期前,南海夏季风的建立时间较迟,但北推较快,夏季风前沿到达华北地区时间较早,在华北地区维持时间长,夏季风的北界位置偏北,华北雨季、淮河梅雨明显。70年代末以后南海夏季风的建立时间较早,夏季风前沿附近南风强度明显偏弱,降水主要集中在长江流域及其以南地区,华北雨季不明显。     

中国数字地震台网(CDSN)和IMS/PS台阵的监测定位能力评估

根据近震震级(ML)和远震震级(Ms)公式,估算了中国数字地震台网(CDSN)对近震和远震的定位能力,并把IMS／PS台阵(海拉尔台阵与兰州台阵)作为加强台站,与CDSN一并估算了其联合定位能力,此后,对两个定位能力结果做了比较。     

基于性能的抗震设计方法在剪力墙结构中的应用

本文对基于性能的抗震设计方法中最具有代表性的直接基于位移的设计方法在剪力墙结构中的应用进行了研究。采用结构非线性分析程序探讨了墙厚、混凝土强度等级、纵筋配筋率、钢筋级别、轴压比、墙长等因素对单肢剪力墙屈服位移的影响,从而对现有的屈服曲率计算公式进行了改进。另外将按顶点荷载作用下的屈服位移计算公式求出的屈服位移与实际倒三角形荷载作用下的剪力墙屈服位移进行了比较,,从而推导出倒三角形荷载作用下的屈服位移计算公式。