Bayesian network-based risk assessment for hazmat transportation on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China

A Bayesian network-based risk assessment (BN-RA) model was developed to assess the risk of hazmat transportation by identifying, modeling, and quantitatively calculating the risk on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRSNWTP) in China. First, we selected seven parameters from five categories of impact factors (i.e., human, vehicle, tank, weather, and road environment) as quintessential risk factors for accidents. Second, we used the developed BN-RA model to predict the probability of accidents. Third, using bidirectional inference in the BN approach, we analyzed and ranked the importance of the effects of these factors. The developed model was subsequently applied to assess the risks of major bridges crossing canals with different pavement grades and traffic flow levels both at present and in the future for the Beijing-Shijiazhuang Section of the MRSNWTP. The results indicated the following: (1) Although the overall potential risk of hazmat transportation accidents on all bridges in the Beijing-Shijiazhuang Section was fairly low (e.g., 0.08 %), the impacts cannot be ignored because of the potential for huge losses. (2) According to the analysis of many factors that may affect accidents, the driving patterns of drivers exerted the strongest influence on the probability of an accident, followed by vehicle conditions and lighting conditions. (3) If a vehicle were to fail, the highest probability (0.17 %) of an accident would arise if it were traveling on a road with no street lighting and poor road conditions at night. (4) Assuming that a vehicle was in good condition, the highest probability (0.12 %) of an accident arised when the vehicle suddenly encountered poor road conditions with no lights on a foggy night. (5) The predicted probabilities of accidents on Bridge TCWRR (short for the Tang County West Ring Road Bridge) in the short (i.e., the year 2017), medium (i.e., the year 2022) and long terms (i.e., the year 2027) were 3.25 × 10^?4, 5.37 × 10^?4, and 8.89 × 10^?4, respectively. For Bridge DNR (short for the Dian Bridge on the North Road), these values were 8.64 × 10^?6, 1.02 × 10^?5, and 1.21 × 10^?5, respectively. Based on the risk assessment results, to lower the accident probability and avoid the serious consequences resulting from hazmat transportation accidents, we developed an appropriate emergency response program to reduce potential hazards. This research resolved the problems of randomness and uncertainty associated with hazmat transportation in the MRSNWTP and can provide a reference for the effective prevention of hazmat transportation accidents and scientific decision-making in risk management.     

退耕前后吴起地区土地利用变化对温度的影响

利用TM遥感影像解译土地利用状况、植被覆盖度,研究退耕还林前后的土地利用、植被覆盖度的变化,揭示陕西省吴起县退耕还林生态建设工程所取得的实效;利用吴起与周边6个气象站37年的气温和地温资料,分析吴起土地覆盖变化后对温度的影响。结果表明,随着退耕还林工程的实施,吴起县域版图在遥感影像逐渐显现、越来越清晰,植被覆盖增加极为显著,高覆盖植被面积在逐年增加,低覆盖植被面积在逐年减少,植被恢复情况明显好于周围区域。与1 997年相比,到2007年吴起县有75.15%耕地不再耕种,退出的耕地主要变为草地、林地和果园;林草覆盖率增加显著,由1997年的37.06%提高到2007年的80.60%。植被覆盖变化后,对地温和气温均产生了影响,变暖趋势得到下降,对夏季的影响大于冬季,夜间的影响大于白天。     

河南南召盆地上三叠统碎屑岩地球化学特征及物源示踪

三叠纪是秦岭造山带全面碰撞造山的关键时期,随着扬子、秦岭和华北板块分别沿勉略、商丹缝合带的汇聚拼合, 秦岭造山带逐渐形成并从板块构造体制向陆内造山体制转化,同时强烈的造山作用控制着周缘盆地的形成与演化。文章通 过研究区的碎屑岩元素地球化学分析,对河南南召盆地上三叠统的物源区及构造背景特征进行探讨。结果表明,上三叠统 源岩成分主要为上地壳长英质火山岩;源岩经历了中等的化学风化强度,校正后CIA值指示其形成于温暖潮湿的气候和相 对较强的构造活动环境;太山庙组源区构造背景主要为大陆岛弧与活动大陆边缘,太子山组源区构造背景主要为大陆岛弧 与被动大陆边缘。根据南召盆地近源沉积特征和秦岭造山带构造演化过程推断,秦岭造山带和华北南缘是南召盆地晚三叠 世的重要物源区,前期太山庙组物源主要由北秦岭隆升基底提供,后期太子山组物源可能来自南秦岭、北秦岭和华北南缘 沉积再循环。南召盆地上三叠统物源区的转变是晚三叠世秦岭造山带逆冲推覆作用逐渐增强的体现,对研究恢复秦岭构造 带造山隆升过程和周缘盆地盆山系统演化具有重要的意义。     

含水量对黄土边坡稳定性的影响

为了研究含水量变化对黄土边坡稳定性的影响,首先对兰州某黄土边坡的黄土试样进行了不同含水量下的直剪试验。试验结果表明,随着含水量的增加,黄土的抗剪强度以幂函数形式减小。但含水量对内摩擦角的影响更显著。因为黄土的粘聚力较小,其变化对抗剪强度的影响相对较小。其次,应用直剪试验结果对四个简单边坡模型进行了黄土边坡稳定性系数随含水量变化的分析。分析表明:随着含水量的增加,黄土边坡的稳定性系数以幂函数形式逐渐降低,当含水量较高时逐渐趋缓。实际上,边坡稳定性系数随含水量变化规律与抗剪强度随含水量变化规律相似。相同坡度时,边坡的高度对稳定性系数有不太大的影响,特别当黄土边坡含水量达到9%以上时,坡高对边坡稳定性系数的影响可以忽略。     

阿拉善地区找矿新进展——珠斯楞海尔罕铜多金属矿

1∶20万区域化探扫面发现的AS26号综合异常,经1∶5万水系加密测量和三级查证,找到了异常源,发现了珠斯楞海尔罕Cu、Au矿。综合物化探普查,在此矿带内圈出2km2高视极化率、低视电阻率激电异常和低缓磁异常。已施工的槽、井工程和ZK9801孔均见矿。沿走向,激电异常和磁异常在东、西两端均未封闭,有大幅度向外延伸趋势,可能是深部硫化物矿层向外延伸的反映。     

开放成矿系统元素迁移负异常结构对深部找矿预测的意义

在开放体系成矿过程中,成矿信息应具有时间和空间两方面的属性。空间属性表现为元素在赋矿空间的分布及变化,时间属性则表现为成矿过程中元素的迁移变化。本文以安徽省兆吉口铅锌矿床为例,通过Grant方程进行元素质量迁移研究,建立Na2O负异常结构,并应用成分数据理论的双标图对负异常结构进行验证,结果发现负异常结构携带着时间维度上的成矿信息。成矿元素Pb、Zn的正异常分布于Na2O负异常范围内。Na2O与Pb、Zn、Au负相关,Au与Pb、Zn呈弱负相关,表明该地区可能存在与Pb、Zn同一成矿作用不同成矿阶段形成的Au矿化/体。兆吉口地区的找矿方向应为Pb、Zn、Au三种矿产资源。Na2O负异常在深部并未结束,表明深部仍可能存有矿体。     

A simulation–optimization modeling approach for watershed-scale agricultural N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O emission mitigation under multi-level uncertainties

In this research, an integrated simulation–optimization modeling approach (ISOMA) was developed for supporting agricultural N₂O emission mitigation at the watershed scale. This approach can successfully combine soil N₂O emission simulation and the consequential mitigation management within a general modeling framework. Also, uncertainties associated with the key soil parameter can be effectively reflected and addressed through adoption of Monte Carlo analysis for the simulation results. The Monte Carlo simulated results were then used to generate fuzzy membership functions that can be consequentially used for emission mitigation management, reflecting the combined uncertainties for N₂O emission simulation and mitigation management. The developed ISOMA was then applied to a reservoir watershed in Miyun county of Beijing municipality. In the studying watershed, the simulation model was calibrated and verified. Then, N₂O emission from multiple agricultural land-use patterns were predicted. The amounts of N₂O emission of four land use patterns (i.e., cash tree, orchard, cropland, and natural forest) were (536.9, 590.8, 653.1), (237.7, 254.4, 275.9), (79.5, 100.7, 105.1), (33.0, 47.3, 61.1) kg CO₂ eq ha^?1 year^?1, respectively. Two scenarios (i.e., G₁ and G₂) were set up according to development priorities of local economy and society. Meanwhile, multiple credibility levels were considered according to the risk of N₂O emission. The land use patterns could be adjusted according to solutions of ISOMA. The developed methods could help regional manager choose various production patterns with cost-effective agriculture N₂O emission management schemes in the Miyun reservoir watershed. The manager also can obtain deeply insights into the tradeoffs between agricultural benefits and system reliabilities.     

Functional zoning and space management of Three-River-Source National Park

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Functional zoning is a key step for the integrated planning and scientific management of a national park. Selecting the Three-River-Source National Park (TNP) as...     

截流水文泥沙监测中几个关键技术的研究与实践

基于三峡工程大江截流水文泥沙监测除常规水文要素外,要求监测围堰龙口和导流明渠附近水体多维水文要素的时间和空间动态变化,因此应尽可能应用相关科技的最新成果和一切先进经验,成熟的技术方法和设备。本文介绍了其中无人立尺接测水位ＡＤＣＰ测流,龙口测验,ＧＰＳ和数据传输等几个关键部位,关键技术室内外研究实验及现场率定校正的情况,实践证明,这些技术的研究与应用,为截流水文泥沙监测打下了基础,并发挥了重要作用。