考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用

In this study, the North China seismic region was selected as the study area, and evaluation of seismic hazard using the spatial smoothing seismicity model was performed. Firstly, the study area is divided into grids, and some parameters (e.g. b-value, M0, Mu, azimuth and M-L relationship) for each seismotectonic model were assigned. Secondly, using elliptical smoothing based on a seismotectonic background model, the statistical earthquake incidence rate in each grid is successively calculated. Lastly, the relevant ground motion attenuation relationship is chosen to assess seismic hazard of general sites. The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained by using the seismic hazard analysis method based on grid source. This seismicity model simplifies the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially appropriate for those places where seismic tectonics is not yet clearly known. This method can provide valuable references for seismic zonation and seismic safety assessment for significant engineering projects.     

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.     

星载GPS相位非差观测粗差和周跳的探测与修复

提出了以历元间星载GPS载波相位观测值之差作为观测量,结合拟准检定法（QuAD）来探测和修复非差星载GPS相位观测值中的粗差和周跳的方法。利用仿真低轨卫星GPS相位观测数据,对粗差和周跳的特性进行了分析,并对探测和修复步骤与效果进行了详细说明。实验表明,该方法不仅计算简捷,而且能有效修复非差载波相位观测值中的粗差和周跳,为非差星载GPS精密单点定轨提供了良好的质量控制基础。     

Scattering and diffraction of plane SH-waves by periodically distributed canyons

A new method is presented to study the scattering and diffraction of plane SH-waves by periodically distributed canyons in a layered half-space. This method uses the indirect boundary element method combined with Green’s functions of uniformly distributed loads acting on periodically distributed inclined lines. The periodicity feature of the canyons is exploited to limit the discretization effort to a single canyon, which avoids errors induced by the truncation of the infinite boundary, and the computational complexity and the demand on memory can be significantly reduced. Furthermore, the total wave fields are decomposed into the free field and scattered field in the process of calculation, which means that the method has definite physical meaning. The implementation of the method is described in detail and its accuracy is verified. Parametric studies are performed in the frequency domain by taking periodically distributed canyons of semi-circular and semi-elliptic cross-sections as examples. Numerical results show that the dynamic responses of periodically distributed canyons can be quite different from those for a single canyon and significant dynamic interactions exist between the canyons.     

全球海气耦合模式（BCC_CM1.0）对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验

以国家气候中心全球大气-海洋耦合模式(BCC-CM1.0)20年的预报产品为基础,重点分析了该模式对中国江淮梅雨的预报能力以及梅雨预报中存在误差的可能原因.试验表明:BCC-CM1.0对江淮梅雨降水有一定的预报能力,模式基本上能够预报出气候态下梅雨降水的空间分布特征.尽管其方差贡献率和时间系数与观测相比有偏差,但模式还是能够预报出梅雨降水的主要模态.气候平均下,BCC-CM1.0模式预报的梅雨雨带位置偏北,因而预报的江淮流域长江以北降水偏多,而长江以南预报的降水偏少.同时发现模式对江淮流域梅雨期中等强度降水预报较好,雨强概率分布与观测结果基本一致,而对大雨强降水和小雨强降水预报相对较差.合成分析发现,江淮流域雨带偏北、降水偏少时,模式的预报能力较好;而江淮流域雨带偏南、降水偏多时,模式预报能力相对较差.BCC-CM1.0对高度场的预报普遍偏低,尤其是在青藏高原上空有一个虚假的低值中心,对副热带高压的预报也偏弱,这样使得东亚季风区气压梯度增加,从而导致预报的东亚夏季风偏强、向北推进的幅度加大,最终致使预报的梅雨雨带偏北.此外,比湿场预报的偏差也可能是造成梅雨雨带偏北的原因之一.     

拟准检定法用于划分不同运动趋势块体

利用位移观测数据区分不同形变趋势块体一般分三步进行:基准检测、块体范围区分和各块体内异常形变检测．本文提出用拟准检定法来实现这三步．前两步初选拟准观测是关键．对于基准检测，按形变位移量大小；对于块体范围区分，则按形变方向．最后，通过一个模拟算例，简单介绍了每一步的实施步骤，并比较了拟准检定法与抗差估计(Huber)法、假设检验法的检测效果．结果表明，拟准检定法可以将上述三步成功实现，而抗差估计法只能检测出块体内的异常形变，对稳定基准检测和块体范围划分是失败的；假设检验法在该三步检测中均为失败．从而验证了拟准检定法具有粗差定位准确、崩溃污染率高的优越性．      

GPS/DR组合导航中一种新的数据融合算法

在分析以往多传感器组合观测数据融合算法基础上,提出了一种新的数据融合算法。仿真计算结果证实了该方法的可行性。     

From MONEX to the global monsoon: A review of monsoon system research

Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades since the Monsoon Experiments(MONEX) of 1978–79. Here, we review these achievements by highlighting four breakthroughs in monsoon research:(1) The identification of the coupled ocean–land–atmosphere nature of the monsoon in the process of the annual cycle of solar heating;(2) new understanding of the changes in the driving forces of monsoon systems, with anthropogenic factors(climate effects of increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions) playing an important role in the regulation of monsoons;(3) detection of the interdecadal- and centennial-scale variability of monsoon systems, and its attribution to the combined impact of global warming and natural(especially oceanic) effects; and(4) the emerging concept of the global monsoon and its long-term variation under the impact of global climate change. All the observational and model-derived evidence demonstrates that the monsoon system, as an important component of the global climate system, has already changed and will continue to change in the future. This picture of an evolving monsoon system poses great challenges for near-term prediction and long-term projection.     

2014年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响

本文基于实时、历史观测资料和再分析资料,综合分析2014年海洋和大气环流异常特征,并讨论这些异常特征对中国气候的主要影响。分析表明：2013/2014年冬季,极涡偏向西半球,东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压均偏弱,导致我国冬季气温总体偏高。受冬季风强度季节内变化影响,前冬暖、后冬冷。2014年赤道中东太平洋形成一次厄尔尼诺事件,4月以来热带印度洋全区一致海温模态正位相维持发展,受暖海温外强迫影响,夏、秋季西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏南,主汛期我国东部降水呈“北少南多”型异常分布。2014年南海夏季风爆发异常偏晚,强度偏弱。东亚夏季风强度偏弱,有利于我国东部主汛期雨带偏南,江南梅雨区和长江中下游梅雨区梅雨量偏多,北方大部夏季降水偏少。