基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测

定量分析碳排放的影响因素,对降低区域碳排放具有重要的指导意义。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析江苏省能源消费碳排放量与人口、富裕度（以人均GDP表示）、技术进步（以能源强度表示）和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归拟合后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,江苏省能源消费碳排放量将分别发生3.467%、(0.242+0.024 lnA)%、0.313%和0.151%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了江苏省未来能源消费碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明,当人口、经济保持低速增长,并保持高技术增长率时,有利于控制江苏省的能源消费碳排放量,2020年江苏省的能源消费碳排放量预测值为202.81 MtC。     

基于ArcGIS的DEM流域划分

从数字高程模型DEM(Digit Elevation Models)直接提取河网及流域信息,是分布式水文模型开发与应用的基础.本文利用ArcGIS中的水文分析工具从DEM中提取了流域水文特征.主要包括:DEM的预处理、水流方向的确定、水流累积量提取、河网的提取、集水区的提取和流域的划分.本文探讨了两种不同划分流域的方法...     

松辽盆地北部上二叠统林西组地球化学特征及地质意义

为探讨松辽盆地北部林西组地球化学特征、沉积环境及构造背景,对该区黑富地1井所钻遇的上二叠统林西组暗色泥质板岩进行主量元素、微量元素和稀土元素测试分析,结果表明：样品主量元素平均质量分数SiO₂为65.05%、Al₂O₃为17.23%、CaO为2.58%、Na₂O为2.84%、K₂O为3.29%,K₂O/Na₂O值为0.20~3.48,A1₂O₃/（CaO+Na₂O）值为0.41~8.01;稀土元素w（∑REE）值介于80.68×10^-6~215.59×10^-6之间,平均值为173.41×10^-6,δEu值介于0.61~0.88之间,平均值为0.70,表现为Eu的负异常,δCe值介于0.91×10^-6~1.01×10^-6之间,为微弱的Ce负异常,LREE富集,HREE亏损;微量元素以亏损Nb、Ta、Sr,相对富集Rb、Ba、La、Ce、Pb、Nd、Sm为特征。样品元素分析和物源w（TiO₂）-w（Ni）、La/Th-w（Hf）等判别图解表明,林西组沉积物源具有多样性,主要来源于上地壳长英质物源,还有少量来自中、基性岩火成岩物源区。样品微量元素标准化蛛网图,稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分模式图,K₂O/Na₂O-w（SiO₂）、Th-Co-Zr/10、F₂-F₁构造背景判别图及地球化学参数对比结果表明,松辽盆地北部林西组物源构造背景主要为活动大陆边缘和大陆岛弧,可能形成于靠近大陆岛弧的活动大陆边缘构造背景。林西组应形成于海陆过渡相到陆相环境,水体由半咸水逐渐转变为淡水。     

中国东部四明山古夷平面遗迹特征与演化

古夷平面研究在地貌演化和新构造运动研究中占有极其重要的地位,但由于遭受构造运动和剥蚀作用的影响,很多古夷平面遗迹已无从清晰辨识。浙江四明山顶古近纪夷平古风化壳面的发现,为研究浙江东部甚至华东地区的新生代地貌演化提供了重要地质信息,同时为始新世和中新世时的古气候、古环境研究提供了重要物质证据。通过详细的野外地质调查,系统采集了该区5个点位的20个古风化壳样品和7个点位的15个现代风化壳样品,开展黏土矿物分析和玄武岩K-Ar年龄测试。研究确认四明山地区发育有2期古夷平面遗迹,即古近纪(E)和新近纪(N)古夷平面遗迹:第一期夷平面发育时间为65. 0～32. 2 Ma,解体和古夷平面遗迹保存时间为32. 2～21. 7 Ma;第二期夷平面发育时间为21. 7～10. 5 Ma,解体和古夷平面遗迹保存时间为10. 5～3. 0 Ma。研究区2期火山活动喷发所形成的玄武岩盖层有效保护了该区的古风化壳,从而使四明山古夷平面遗迹具有空间展布完整、剖面信息清晰等特征,呈现出由古夷平面(古风化壳)与玄武岩堆积面(现代风化壳)组成的"双风化壳"现象,为观察古夷平面遗迹特征提供了最佳场所。     

Development mechanism for the landslide at Xinlu Village,Chongqing, China

Due to the continuous and intense rainfall from June 26 to 28, 2016, Xinlu Village in Ganshui Town, Qijiang District, Chongqing, experienced a unitary-slip landslide at approximately UTC+8 19:30 on June 28. This landslide disrupted the Chuan-Qian railway and damaged four residential buildings. To analyze and rehabilitate the landslide, the engineering geology, hydrological conditions, and deformation instability mechanism of this landslide were investigated and comprehensively analyzed based on an in situ survey, geophysical drilling, and a laboratory quick-shearing test. The results show that the landslide is a typical gradual progressive landslide.     

电离层E_S层对综合射束污染的初步分析

本文考虑到干涉仪对电离层中不同尺度不规则性的滤波作用、结合密云米波综合孔径系统、提出了电离层E_(?)层是电离层不规则性影响该系统的主要根源。不规则性的尺度约在700～1000米的范围。再考虑到E_(?)层的漂移运动,提出了文中所描述的模型。用电子计算机进行了E_(?)层对综合射束污染的模拟计算,结果指出:射束主瓣的增益下降约10％,副瓣由13％增大到18％;综合射束在赤经方向出现不对称性,从而引起约0.6秒的赤经误差;射束的边缘处和两个扇形区出现了杂瓣。     

Poincarè Chaos and the Dynamical Evolution of Systems of Gravitating Bodies

Some general laws of evolution of a system of a large number of gravitating bodies are discussed. If in the initial stage the dynamics of the system is determined by large-scale perturbations of the gravitational potential associated with excitations of a few collective degrees of freedom, then one can assume, by analogy with chaos in the several-body problem (Poincarè chaos), that randomization will occur in the system over several average crossing times. In the next stage of evolution, the energy of collective modes should be transferred by the cascade mechanism to ever smaller scales, down to invididual particles. Numerical experiments and gross-dynamical considerations that could verify this picture and bring out details are discussed.     

相关处理机多制式兼容性测试的初步结果

我国VLBI网包括上海佘山、乌鲁木齐和昆明 3个观测站 ,以及上海天文台研制的两台站相关处理机。上海佘山和乌鲁木齐站已升级成MK4制式和只使用薄磁带 ,而昆明站只能使用S2制式。因此 ,实现相关处理机对不同制式数据和薄磁带的兼容 ,是我国VLBI网顺利运行的关键。给出了多制式VLBI观测实验和相关处理的初步结果 ,总结了相关处理机升级后的处理能力 ,并对相关处理机的下一步发展作简单讨论     

The Asymmetrical Eruption of a Quiescent Filament and Associated Halo CME

We will present detailed observations of the asymmetrical eruption of a large quiescent filament on 24 November 2002, which was followed by a two-ribbon flare, three coronal dimmings, endpoint brightenings, and a very fast halo-type coronal mass ejection (CME). Before the eruption, the filament lay along the main neutral line (MNL) underneath a single-arcade helmet streamer with a simple bipolar configuration. However, photospheric magnetic fields on both sides of the filament showed an asymmetrical distribution, and the filament and MNL were not located just at the center of the streamer base but were closer to the eastern leg of the streamer arcade. Therefore, instead of erupting along the streamer’s symmetrical axis, the filament showed a nonradial and asymmetrical eruption. It lifted from the eastern flank of the streamer arcade to impact the western leg directly, leading to an asymmetrical CME that expanded westward; eventually the streamer was disrupted significantly. Accordingly, the opposite-polarity coronal dimmings at both sides of the filament forming in the eruption also showed an asymmetrical area distribution. We thus assume that the streamer arcade could guide the filament at the early eruption phase but failed to restrain it later. Consistent with previous results, these observations suggest that the global background magnetic field can impose additional action on the initial eruption of the filament and CME, as well as the dimming configuration.     

Focal Mechanism Analysis for Determination of Potential Source Zones in South China and Its Adjacent Regions

INTRODUCTIONAfter theforthgenerationzoning map was set ,studies of tectonic activityonthe Chinese continentdeveloped greatly and more seismological data accumulated,whichsupplies plenty of datafor studyingpotential source zones .Seismic waves contain a lot of information about faulting activityin hypocenterregions .By analysis of focal mechanismsolutions ,alot of valuable information about actingforce andfault slipin hypocenters can be obtained.Other researchers have studied earthquake fo…