A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

北淮阳东段西汤池岩体地球化学特征、锆石U-Pb定年及成因

西汤池岩体位于安徽北淮阳地区舒城县西汤池一带。西汤池似斑状二长花岗岩具高硅、富碱质特征,为铝饱和碱性系列岩石。稀土元素含量中等,(La/Yb)_N与HREE/LREE值较高,重稀土相对轻稀土亏损明显,Eu呈弱负异常,属轻稀土富集型。大离子亲石元素(Rb、K、La、Nd等)明显富集,而高场强元素(Nb、Ta、P、Ti等)亏损。通过LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年,获得西汤池二长花岗岩~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄为(125.5±1.6)Ma,为早白垩世岩浆活动的产物。基于前人关于北淮阳地区区域地质背景方面的研究成果和本次地球化学构造环境判别方面的研究,认为西汤池二长花岗岩属A_1型花岗岩,形成于后碰撞的伸展构造环境。     

综合物探方法在广西妙皇隐伏多金属矿勘查中的应用

妙皇多金属矿区位于来宾凹陷东缘与大瑶山隆起西侧交接部位,广西大瑶山及其西侧铅锌成矿带中部成矿条件优越,历年来开展过多种研究和找矿方法,但找矿效果不佳。通过研究妙皇铜铅锌银矿区的地质条件和成矿背景,运用综合物探方法,对区内部分地质问题及矿产特征进行了推断和预测。2012年,依据地质物探综合成果布置了ZK22701号验证孔,取得了突破性的进展。同时,依据物探成果推测了矿区成矿机理和成矿模式,在找矿方向和找矿潜力方面进行了分析探讨,对中深部找矿具有很好的指导意义。     

Sinian-Cambrian Tectonic Framework in the Tarim Basin and its Influences on the Paleogeography of the Early CambrianEI北大核心CSCD

Due to strong remodification and sparse trace remnants, tectonic restoration is critical for the reconstructing of the paleography and basin-prototype in the multiple-cycles superimposed basin, which is also fundamental for the hydrocarbon exploration of the deep marine carbonate in the Tarim Basin. This study presents the tectonic framework of the transition phase from the Sinian to the Cambrian Period and its constrains on the paleography of the Cambrian in the Tarim Basin based on comprehensive analysis of new geochronology data, seismic data and regional tectonic data. The results showed that (1) there is a large regional unconformity between the Cambrian and Precambrian, suggesting a discontinuous deposition from the Sinian to the Cambrian that is contrary to the major view; (2) a broad flattened paleotopography formed before Cambrian Period, which is favorable for the wide epicontinental sea environment and a gentle homoclinal ramp platform development in the early Cambrian, and the residual basement low relief uplifts that influence the microfacies differentiation in the carbonate platform; (3) the Cambrian carbonate platform has been involved much into the marginal orogenic belts, and the proto-platform is probably of 200 km out of the present basin in S-N direction; (4) there is a weak extensional setting in the Cambrian-Early Ordovician rather than a strong rifting setting with a large aulacogen into the platform, in which a inter-platform shallow depression and stable ramp platform developed in the Cambrian; (5) there is not troughs, but rather low relief uplifts developed in the Early Cambrian in the southwestern Tarim Basin, and lack of large uplifts along the carbonate platform margins; (6) it is showed a broad architecture of platform-wide slope-ocean basin from the inner Tarim plate to its margin in the Cambrian Period. Considering the basin prototype, the restoration of the tectono-paleography in the early Cambrian in the Tarim Basin is distinct from those of the previously proposed. We propose that a gentle pattern with “two platforms and one inter-depression” in E-W striking other than multiple small platform constrained in the basin, and further subdivision of the western platform with inner platform low uplift and sag in N-S striking, which is possibly inherited from the basement architecture. On the outer of the united platform, there is probably broad gentle slope for transition to ocean basin. We therefore argue that tectonic restoration is crucial for reconstruction of the paleogeography and basin prototype, especially for basins experienced multiphase of tectonic cycles. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Research Progress and Prospect on Reactivation of Ancient Landslides

The ancient landslide has endured long-term slope evolution which results in its complicated material and special rock-soil properties. The risk of ancient landslide reactivation is substantially increasing due to the increase of intensified human engineering activities and the frequency of extreme weather events. Many ancient landslides have been reactivated all over the world and led to serious fatalities and severe damage to many important engineering facilities such as transportation and hydropower engineering projects. On the basis of the analysis of the research situation about the ancient landslides at home and abroad, the main research advances were summarized including the regional developing laws and recognizing of the ancient landslides, the mechanics properties of ancient landslide body and related sliding zone, reactivation mechanism of ancient landslides, reactivating process and modeling analysis of ancient landslides, early recognization of ancient landslide reactivation, etc. To meet the demands of disaster prevention and reduction, three key scientific issues were put forward to be solved: ①automaticaly establishing the methodology and identification criterions for recognition of ancient landslide; ②revealing the reactivation mechanism of ancient landslide based on a new strength theory; ③establishing the early rapid recognition method and predictive model for ancient landslide reactivation. Solving the above mentioned scientific theory and methodology will facilitate the planning and site selection of major projects as well as the disaster prevention and reduction in ancient landslide developing areas.     

川滇黔邻区龙马溪组页岩气富集主控因素与勘探方向

中国的页岩气资源评价必须立足于中国主要陆块的地质条件与构造演化特点之上,对于不同层系、不同地区的页岩气选区评价,也必须抓住关键因素。川滇黔邻区的五峰组-龙马溪组富有机质页岩发育,但保存条件较渝东南地区更为复杂。印支期以来,该区经历了多期次构造应力场转换,断裂、褶皱发育,因此,建立针对性的页岩气选区评价参数体系是该区页岩气勘探走出困局的当务之急。本文在分析该区已有页岩气钻井成效的基础上,立足于扬子海相层系页岩气勘探应是基于保存条件的"连续型甜点区"的选区评价基本思路,结合前人研究成果,系统梳理出一套评价指标体系。该体系涵盖5大因素(区域盖层、直接盖层、底板条件、页岩层自身条件、构造改造强度)、4个等级、17个选区评价参数。另外,根据已有相关钻井数据,总结提出了5个页岩气层评价表征参数(含气量、孔隙度、电阻率、氮气组分含量和压力系数)。根据该指标体系,对川滇黔邻区的主要构造单元进行了梳理分析,优选出5个有利区,提出了各有利区的首选可能突破点。本研究对复杂构造区页岩气有利区带优选具有一定的指导意义。     

Ka/Ku双波段云雷达反演空气垂直运动速度和雨滴谱方法研究及初步应用

在Ka波段云雷达上升级改造建成的Ka/Ku（Ka和Ku波段波长分别为8.9 mm和2.2 cm）双波段云雷达2019年用于华南云降水垂直结构观测,以改进云内动力和微物理参数探测能力。为了利用该双波段云雷达研究华南降水微物理和动力结构,本文提出了基于双波段云雷达回波强度谱密度（S_Z）数据和最优估计技术的云内空气垂直运动速度（V_air）、雨滴谱（DSD）、含水量（LWC）、雨强（R）的反演方法（DWSZ）,雨区衰减的订正方法。利用2019年在广东龙门观测的一次降水过程数据,对比分析了云雷达反演的微物理参数与雨滴谱直接观测量,并检验了云雷达反演的低层空气垂直运动速度,利用反演结果分析了一次混合云过程的V_air与这些微物理参数的垂直结构和相互关系。结果表明:Ka/Ku双波段云雷达合理反演了微降水微物理和动力参数及其垂直分布,经过衰减订正的Ka和Ku波段回波强度偏差明显减小。该双波段云雷达数据可以用于分析0～30 dBZ回波强度的云降水垂直结构。本次过程为混合云降水,对流单体前部存在明显的上升气流,后部存在下沉气流;从平均垂直结构来看:V_air和粒子平均直径（D_m）在2 km高度层到达最大,粒子数密度（N_w）、LWC和R在2 km以下明显增强,粒子直径却减小,水汽凝结过程、雨滴碰并云滴是本次过程的主要机制。这一工作验证了Ka和Ku波段组合的双波段云雷达的可行性,为Ka/Ku波段云雷达技术的推广,单波段云雷达反演算法进一步改进,云降水精细结构分析等提供了基础。     

一种基于属性值变化程度定权的聚类算法

针对经典K-means聚类算法以欧氏距离作为相似度判断法则进行聚类划分,而未考虑聚类对象的各属性值对聚类划分的影响程度存在差异的问题,该文提出了一种基于属性值变化程度定权的聚类算法。通过采用Iris dataset数据进行实验,该算法相对于其他聚类算法获得了更好的聚类效果,且该算法适用于生物物种分类、遥感影像识别等工作领域,能提高聚类运算的精准度。     

GPS高层建筑物动态特性的小波分析提取

针对高层建筑物GPS动态监测数据特点,该文将小波分析技术应用于高层建筑物动态特性提取,研究了数据处理时4种阈值选取准则的好坏,针对观测数据不同阶段振幅和频率不同,提出分段、分层处理数据的思想,为了获得更全面的观测信号,将小波包分析应用于数据处理。结果表明:自适应阈值准则更适用于高层建筑物动态数据处理,采用分段分层的处理方法,既能满足去噪要求又能提取丰富的变形信息,小波包分析能有效提取高层建筑物动态特性,保留更多的动态信息。     

Network-based triple-frequency carrier phase ambiguity resolution between reference stations using BDS data for long baselines

Network-based ambiguity resolution (AR) between reference stations is the prerequisite to realize a precise real-time kinematic positioning service. With the help of BDS triple-frequency signals, we can efficiently deal with the ionospheric delay and tropospheric delay, and achieve rapid and reliable AR. To overcome the inaccurate ionospheric delay estimated by the geometry-free three carrier ambiguity resolution (GF TCAR) technique, which leads to failure in the original ambiguity resolution, we propose an ionospheric-free (IF) TCAR method to resolve the ambiguity between the reference stations over long baselines. Taking full advantage of the known positions of the reference stations, the easily resolved extra-wide-lane (EWL) ambiguity, and the IF phase combinations, we can reliably fix the wide-lane (WL) ambiguity. A Kalman filter is applied to estimate precise IF ambiguities and the original ambiguity is resolved with the fixed WL ambiguity. A numerical analysis with triple-frequency BDS data from three long baselines of a CORS network is provided to compare the AR performance of GF TCAR with that of IF TCAR. The results show that both methods can reliably resolve the WL ambiguity with a remarkable correctly-fixed rate of higher than 99%, and the reliably-fixed rates of the IF TCAR slightly increase from 92.19, 94.67 and 94.61–98.26, 99.54 and 97.51% for the three baselines. Herein “correctly-fixed” and “reliably-fixed” mean the difference between the float ambiguity and the true one are less than ± 0.5 and ± 0.25 cycles, respectively. On the other hand, the AR performance of the original signals with the IF TCAR method is much better than that with the GF TCAR method attaining a 100% correctly-fixed rate, while the GF TCAR method can hardly fix the original ambiguity with the largest bias being as much as 4 cycles because of the amplified systematic bias.