打桩振动环境效应的有限元-无限元耦合分析

把打桩引起的近场波动的数值模拟问题归结为层状半无限弹性体系的动力响应问题,采用有限元与无限元的耦合模型对该问题进行数值模拟,最后对整体模型时空离散,用Ｃ语言编制计算机程序,利用该程序对上海某高层办公楼进行实例计算,并与实测结果进行比较分析,表明该方法是可行的,可为打桩施工的安全作业提供依据。     

降雨对呼和浩特地震台形变观测的影响

为了研究降雨对定点形变观测的影响,在了解呼和浩特地震台形变观测环境后,分析了伸缩仪、水管倾斜仪和垂直摆倾斜仪的观测数据质量,统计了降雨量和各仪器分量的变化,并进行了相关分析,得到不同形变仪器测项数据变化幅度对降雨量的响应函数,结果显示两者间呈较好的线性相关。     

长江下游仪征河段汊道分流属性及航道滩槽演变机制

长江下游仪征河段处于枯季潮流界的上边界,揭示其汊道分流属性及滩槽联动演变机制,对河势控制工程及深水航道工程实践具有重要意义.本研究收集了1955—2021年水文泥沙及地形等资料,在汊道分流关系及调整成因上:世业洲右汊的分流属性为枯水倾向型汊道,即低流量时期分流比大于高流量时期;1959—2021年期间,世业洲右汊分流比经历了“稳定-下降-上升”的调整过程,上游河段滩槽格局调整及流域来沙减少引起的汊道间不均衡冲刷是分流关系调整的主因;流域流量过程调整、河道崩岸等综合影响引起1959—2017年期间世业洲右汊分流比为减小态势,航道工程实施起到了调控汊道关系的功能,世业洲右汊分流比为增加态势.在滩槽联动演变关系上:仪征河段进口段以展宽为主,世业洲左汊展宽程度大于右汊,左汊河床形态变化与进口段滩槽形态的一致性关系优于右汊,即上游进口段滩槽演变、流域来沙量减少等综合作用会加速了左汊发展;2015年南京以下12.5 m深水航道二期工程建设以来,工程区域淤积且洲体完整性增强,且深槽冲刷及河槽容积增大,表明航道工程已实现汊道分流关系及滩槽调控的功能.     

Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.     

Developing a novel hybrid model for seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings provides key information for disaster management. However, previous seismic loss prediction models ignored...     

井巷工程反射波超前探测逆时偏移成像

探讨了井巷隧道工程反射波法超前地质预报成像问题.从一阶速度－应力弹性波方程出发,推导了二维各向同性介质情况下弹性波逆时传播的高阶差分格式,实现了弹性波在数值空间中的逆时延拓.构建反射波法隧道超前探测中的断层、软弱夹层等介质模型,以反射波探测的正演记录作为初始条件,并从程函方程出发,采用逆时差分格式求取介质模型网格空间中各点的直达波旅行时作为弹性波逆时偏移的成像条件,实现多波多分量资料的逆时偏移.偏移结果表明,逆时偏移能够使隧道壁接收到的波场准确归位,提高隧道反射波超前探测的资料处理的精度.     

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

钠多普勒激光雷达回波光子数仿真及大气参数反演

钠多普勒激光雷达利用中层顶区域的钠原子作为示踪物,探测中层顶区域大气风场和温度剖面.本文主要分析钠多普勒激光雷达的探测原理和大气参数反演算法.利用MSISE和HWM93等大气模型给出背景大气温度、密度及风场,并给定钠原子数密度剖面,从激光雷达方程出发,模拟计算了激光雷达的瑞利散射和钠共振荧光散射回波光子数.利用模拟的回波光子数剖面数据,反演得到大气温度、视线风速和钠原子数密度剖面,反演结果与模拟计算用的背景参数符合很好,验证了这一反演方法的正确性.分析了激光频率偏移和激光线宽变化对反演精度的影响.     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

Method of high-density seismic imaging ex-ploration and application samples

Introduction Now, shallow seismic reflection wave technique has been used extensively in geological ex-plorations of bridge, dam, high building and so on. Since shallow seismic reflection wave tech-nique is often implemented in industrial zone or city with dense population, the background dis-turbance including industrial noise, life noise, etc is very serious. Furthermore, the disturbance of seismic source is also serious due to short array length and offset of the method. In general, shal-lo…