多元门限回归模型的一种建模方法

本文根据门限自回归模型的基本思想[1]，提出一种多元门限回归模型的建模方法。其特点是充分考虑了预报系统中某些特殊预报因子突变点对预报关系的改变作用。数值实例表明，该模型在模拟和预报精度上比一般线性逐步回归模型有一定程度的提高。     

CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较

通过对15组CMIP3和CMIP5两代模式集合平均对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较,发现CMIP5模式对气温和降水的模拟更接近观测值。CMIP5模式模拟年、春季、夏季、秋季平均气温的相关系数比CMIP3模式分别提升了0.15、0.13、0.24和0.02,冬季下降了0.07。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的平均气温变化趋势的模拟效果比CMIP3有所提高,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3分别减少了0.03℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.01℃/10a、0.06℃/10a、0.14℃/10a。对西北干旱区平均气温年、季的模拟偏差分布上,CMIP5模式的偏差均比CMIP3低1~2℃。但是天山区年、季节平均气温的模拟与整体模拟偏低情况相反,CMIP3和CMIP5分别偏高3~6℃和1~4℃,对夏季的模拟偏高最严重,分别达到6℃和4℃。CMIP5模式整体对西北干旱区降水量的模拟结果与观测值的平均相关系数与CMIP3相差不大,均不超过0.1,而且偏差仍然较大。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的降水量的变化趋势模拟效果比CMIP3有所降低,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3增加了0.67 mm/10a、0.23 mm/10a、0.51 mm/10a、0.11 mm/10a、0.14 mm/10a。CMIP5模式对年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量模拟的均方根误差相比CMIP3分别减少77.6 mm、25.5 mm、25.0 mm、18.8 mm和13.9 mm。在空间上,CMIP5模式对年、季节降水模拟仍然偏高,但是比CMIP3有明显缓解;CMIP3和CMIP5模式对夏季天山区年降水量和夏季降水量的模拟也与大部分区域偏高的趋势明显相反,两代模式对夏季天山区的降水模拟均偏低50 mm左右。     

Microphysical Responses to Catalysis During a Stratocumulus Aircraft Seeding Experiment over the Sanjiangyuan Region of China

This study explores the microphysical responses to a cloud seeding operation in the Sanjiangyuan region, China. The cloud seeding was performed using a zigzag flight pattern, while the detection phase was accomplished using a back-and-forth flight pattern through the top of a stratocumulus layer. Global Position System（GPS） and Particle Measuring System（PMS） data obtained during the operation are used to determine the efective cloud area before and after the operation, diferentiate the phase states of cloud particles, and analyze changes in the concentrations of liquid cloud particles and ice crystals, the evolution of the cloud particle spectrum, and the content of supercooled water. The median diameter of liquid cloud particles in the area of the cloud-seeding operation was 3.5–18.5 μm, most cloud particles observed in the 21.5–45.5-μm size regime were ice crystals, while all particles of size 50 μm and above were in the ice phase. Changes in the concentration and typical diameter of cloud particles within 36 km downwind of the cloudseeding operation did not exceed natural fluctuations in the cloud area before the operation; however, the concentration of liquid cloud particles decreased substantially in areas with high concentrations of supercooled water（concentrations of supercooled water exceeding 0.01 g m 3）. The concentration of ice crystals within the measuring range of the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe（FSSP） increased substantially, the water content of ice-phase particles increased, and the average supercooled water content in the cloud decreased from（68.3± 23.1）% before the operation to（34.2± 12.4）%. The efects of cloud seeding were more pronounced in parts of the cloud where the content of supercooled water was higher. Little to no efects were observed in parts of the cloud with low concentrations of supercooled water.     

天津滨海地区浅层剪切波速与基底构造关系研究

Shear wave velocity is one of the important dynamic characteristics of soil layers and applied widely in aseismic engineering. In this paper, 500 drill logging data are used to make a linear interpolation based on 0.01°×0.01°×1m grid. A shallow 3-D shear wave velocity structure of Tianjin coastal area is obtained. According to the data and geological background, we selected two typical velocity profiles to try to introduce and explain its relationship to basement structure. The results show that the shear wave velocity structure clearly presents the characteristic of stratification and lateral inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the difference of the shear wave structure between tectonic elements is clear and the velocity structure between the two sides of the local or border fault in the Quaternary is disturbed or affected significantly. It intuitively shows that the basement structure and fault activity of this region had good control of sedimentation development and strata formation in the Quaternary period which would have an important effect on engineering seismic and geological condition evaluation.     

永清MS 4.3地震前永清井水温异常分析

2017年12月永清井观测温度急剧下降,采用该井水温、水位多年观测数据,从仪器测量原理及精细温度梯度测量出发,结合井孔资料,认为该变化为永清M_S 4.3地震（井震距<30 km）发生前的异常信息。利用正弦累加模型计算温度异常持续时间和幅度,发现该异常变化存在2个周期：①周期42天,温度变化幅度为0.042 12℃;②周期16.77天,温度变化幅度为0.018 62℃。分析认为,区域应力状态发生变化,使含水层渗透性受到影响,从而间接影响到井下温度传感器安放处水温。地震发生后近距离观测到水温异常变化尚属首次,利用模型对变化时间与幅度进行量化提取,可为经验预报、统计预报提供经典震例。     

Factors driving riverbed scouring and sedimentation in the Bayangaole to Toudaoguai reaches of the Upper Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River face problems of severe sedimentation caused by a variety of complex factors. The sedimentation process in those reaches has been characterized using the sediment balance method, and the key factors affecting the process have been analyzed using the correlation analysis method. The results show that during the period 1952–2012 the Bayangaole (Bayan Gol) to Toudaoguai reaches in Inner Mongolia have undergone successive processes of accumulative sedimentation, then relative balance, and then accumulative sedimentation once again. The total annual sedimentation is 12.0341×10⁸ m³, of which accumulations from July to October account for 95.1% and the reaches from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai account for 98.5%. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou reaches is the combined water and sediment condition. The critical conditions for equilibrium are an incoming sediment coefficient < 0.007 kg·s·m^–6 and a flow discharge > 700 m³·s^–1. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai reaches is the incoming sediment from the tributaries on the south bank and the combined water and sediment condition of the main stream. The critical conditions of the main stream for maintaining equilibrium status are a flow discharge of the main stream exceeding 800 m³·s^–1 and a comprehensive incoming sediment coefficient < 0.005 kg·s·m^–6. The incoming sediment from the tributaries has little impact on the main stream when the annual sediment load is less than 0.1×10⁸ t. The incoming sediment coefficient of the main stream and the incoming sediment from the tributaries both play vital roles in the riverbed evolution of the Inner Mongolia reaches, but the latter contributes the most.     

基于最优路径的无人机影像辐射区域网平差

无人机遥感能够提供高时空分辨率的影像数据,拥有广泛的应用前景。辐射校正将传感器记录的数据转化为地表反射率,是无人机数据定量化应用的前提。然而无人机数据易受光照等因素的影响,导致影像间存在不同程度的辐射差异,为多张无人机影像的辐射校正带来困难。基于影像间重叠区域的信息,辐射区域网平差能够获得全局最优的辐射校正参数,降低影像间的辐射差异,因此在实现影像的辐射校正方面具有巨大潜力。但大量待求解未知参数降低了辐射校正模型的求解效率,特别是在数据量急剧增加时,该问题更为突出。基于影像重叠区辐射信息建立的最优路径很好地考虑了影像间的辐射转化关系,可有效控制误差累计,为减少辐射区域网平差中未知参数的数量提供了一种思路。因此,本文将最优路径与辐射区域网平差相结合,以降低待求解参数的数量,在保证辐射校正精度的同时提高辐射校正模型求解效率,进而提升辐射区域网平差在大数据集上的应用潜力。     

2010年1月24日山西河津-万荣MS4.8地震的震源机制解与发震构造探讨

2010年1月24日,山西省运城市河津-万荣交界地区发生Ms4.8地震.由于本次地震强度较低,并未形成地表破裂带,分析其发震构造具有一定的困难.地震现场工作队只能根据浅层人工地震剖面、附近钻孔资料、烈度等震线长轴和震中区附近活动断裂等来推定,认为西辛封隐伏断裂为可能的发震断裂.为此,下面我们将在分析本次地震的震源机制解、序列三维空间分布特征的基础上,结合本次地震的宏观考察结果,确定其发震构造并探讨发震机理.     

一次台风大暴雨成因及落区分析

对2007年9月19日到20日一次台风暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,利用模式输出资料具体分析了本次台风登陆减弱后的低压结构特征和大暴雨落区。结果表明:流场上高空辐散低空辐合特征明显,台风右侧来自海洋的低空潮湿偏南气流向中纬度槽前和台风倒槽前部输送的大量水汽在鲁东南东部和山东半岛南部辐合,形成强降水区;台风中心风速较小,和东部海上强风速中心形成明显"风速偶",降水区主要发生在中、低层"风速偶"之间的强风速梯度中。由于下垫面分为海上和陆上两部分,台风低压物理量场结构存在东西不对称性质,上升运动更加强烈,降水强度更大。降水的增幅与高空东南急流及高空正涡度中心和负散度中心的明显脉动下传有关系。     

巴西坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地油气分布差异及主控因素

巴西坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地均为典型的被动陆缘盆地。随着勘探程度的增加和近年来在桑托斯盆地深水区盐下油气的重大发现,坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地之间的构造-沉积演化和油气地质特征的差异性越来越明显。通过对坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地区域地质特征和油气成藏条件差异性的比较,总结出两个盆地油气分布特征的截然不同。研究表明,盐窗比较发育的坎波斯盆地中已发现的油气主要富集于盐上浊积砂岩,而连续盐岩发育的桑托斯盆地已发现的油气则主要富集于盐下湖相碳酸盐岩。对于盐下层系,连续分布的盐岩和圣保罗高地的发育控制了盐下层系油气的分布;对于盐上层系,盐相关构造的发育则为油气垂向运移提供了有利通道,从而控制了盐上油气藏的形成与分布。