Atmospheric factors governing winter thunderstorms in the coastal region of the eastern Mediterranean

The factors controlling lightning activity over central Israel and the adjacent Mediterranean Sea were studied. Potential predictors were correlated at 12-h intervals with total number of flashes. Since during the winter season lightning is generated in this region by Cyprus Lows, the data includes 283 observations on days in which this system prevailed for December to February, which covered four winters. The average lightning rate was 26.8 h^-1, with a high standard deviation of 55.2 h^-1. The total number of flashes at night exceeded the daytime number by 35%, in agreement with previous studies. The CAPE values were on the order of hundreds of J kg^-1. A statistical linear multi-regression model was developed for the number of lightning flashes based on 35 atmospheric variables. The correlation between the modeled and the observed number of lightning flashes was 0.67, and 0.81 for the logarithm of the number of lightning flashes (log-lightning). This suggests that the lightning intensity responds exponentially to its governing factors. A linear multi-regression stepwise model for the log-lightning selected seven predictors as significant and yielded a correlation of 0.74. This model was validated by three holdout and three leave-one-out validation experiments. The composition and hierarchy of the significant predictors reflect the dominance of the thermodynamic factors, in particular instability, in determining lightning activity. Though thunderstorms are local or meso-scale phenomena, the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables were found to be powerful predictors for their intensity.     

Runoff‐induced sediment yield over dune slopes in the Negev Desert. 1: Quantity and variability

Although extensive data exist on runoff erosion and rates for non‐sandy hillslopes, data for arid dune slopes are scarce, owing to the widespread perception that the high infiltrability of sand will reduce runoff. However, runoff is generated on sandy dunes in the Hallamish dune field, western Negev Desert, Israel (P ≈ 95 mm) due to the presence of a thin (usually 1–3 mm) microbiotic crust. The runoff in turn produces erosion. Sediment yield was measured on ten plots (140–1640 m²) on the north‐ and south‐facing slopes of longitudinal dunes. Two plots facing north and two facing south were subdivided into three subplots. The subplots represented the crest of the active dune devoid of crust, the extensively crusted footslope of the dune, and the midslope section characterized by a patchy crust. The remaining plots extended the full length of the dune slope. No runoff and consequently no water‐eroded sediments were obtained from the crest subplots devoid of crust. However, runoff and sediment were obtained from the mid‐ and footslope crusted subplots. Sediment yield from the footslope subplots was much higher than from the midslopes, despite the higher sediment concentration that characterized the midslope subplots. The mean annual sediment yield at the Hallamish dune field was 432 g per metre width and was associated with high average annual concentrations of 32 g l^?1. The data indicate that owing to the presence of a thin microbiotic crust, runoff and water erosion may occur even within arid sandy dune fields. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Counterclockwise rotation of the Anatolian block

Seismological and other data from the boundaries of Anatolia are used to discuss the motion and plate tectonics of this block. Models which include a rotation of Anatolia around a single pole are shown to be inconsistent with much of this data. In particular a westward motion of Anatolia, which is the most commonly used model, should be reconsidered. Models which use a single pole of rotation fail because they assume the North Anatolian Fault to be an ideal transform fault which describes all of the motion between Anatolia and the Black Sea. In effect, internal deformation in the form of extension in western Anatolia and for the most part strike-slip faulting in eastern Anatolia, are important and account for some of the relative motion. Thus, a more appropriate model for this region is one which not only stresses the dominance of the North Anatolian Fault, but also recognises the importance of internal deformation and the limitation of classic plate tectonic models which this deformation implies. The preferred model for the motion of Anatolia is a nonuniform, tight, counterclockwise rotation approximated by the shape of the North Anatolian Fault as well as by the faults which splay from it to the south. Such a model is consistent with data from the boundaries of Anatolia including the source mechanism of earthquakes and depth of Benioff zone along the southern boundary of the block. Counterclockwise rotation of Anatolia is the natural consequence of the collision of Arabia with eastern Anatolia, coupled with subduction in the eastern Mediterranean.     

Dipping basement reflectors along volcanic passive margins—new insight using data from the Kerguelen Plateau

Multichannel seismic reflection data from the Southern Kerguelen Plateau show many dipping basement reflectors associated with volcanic flows. These reflectors are quite similar in their shape to seaward-dipping basement reflectors observed along volcanic passive margins. On the Kerguelen Plateau the sources are updip of the basement reflectors, in the presently extinct and eroded volcanoes. We suggest that the same source/reflector geometry may also apply to the seaward-dipping basement reflectors observed along passive margins. We interpret these reflectors to be the result of volcanism on the passive margin which flowed in all directions into the newly created ocean basin at an early spreading stage.     

Design of geological data systems for developing nations

For analytical, inventory, and a variety of other basic types of geological data the main functions of an information management system can adequately be accommodated by simple systems in which comprehensiveness is compromised in favor of practicality and ease of implementation. Albeit possessing some shortcomings, such a strategy is likely to prove profitable particularly to geologists in developing nations who are confronted with the task of self-developing much needed geological data systems in the face of limited electronic data processing resources. Based on the experience of the Geological Survey of Israel, several considerations and practical guidelines for the design and implementation of such systems can be outlined. Data bases should be limited in their scope to specific subjects or projects, be designed to serve existing and only the more realistic foreseeable needs, and include provisions for merger and intelligent communication with related files. Such data bases typically contain logically simple-structured information and are small in size. Revision, deletion, and update transactions are infrequent; the search criteria for retrieval are for the most part predictable and a fast response time is not essential. These attributes prescribe a preference for simple fixed- or semi-free-format sequential files which, in turn, simplify appreciably the programming of the supporting software. Input forms should be meticulously planned with due consideration given to aspects of software compatibility, user convenience and acceptance, and efficiency in data gathering. The use of standard forms should be integrated into the institution's routine to facilitate direct data entry by each contributor, thereby improving and economizing the data collection process, and to secure data capture at its acquisition level (field, laboratory). The user's more immediate retrieval needs are adequately satisfied by a master list, documenting the entire data base and a number of external inverted index directories cross-referencing the master list according to the attributes by which the file is most likely to be searched. Further development of output capabilities should be directed to provide for flexible retrieval by multikey query functions and base map posting. For data files storing raw chemical analyses of rocks and water samples, the incorporation of processing capabilities to compute interpretative geochemical parameters as an integral part of the system's output is particularly useful. Paper presented at the 25th International Geological Congress, Section 16A, Sydney, Australia, August 1976.     

Using Lightning Data to Better Understand and Predict Flash Floods in the Mediterranean

One of the costliest natural hazards around the globe is flash floods, resulting from localized intense convective precipitation over short periods of time. Since intense convective rainfall (especially over the continents) is well correlated with lightning activity in these storms, a European Union FP6 FLASH project was realized from 2006 to 2010, focusing on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project, 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms, lightning data were used together with rainfall estimates in order to understand the storms?? development and electrification processes. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the local and synoptic conditions leading to such intense and damaging storms. As part of this project, tools for short-term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long-term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection, were developed and employed. The project also focused on educational outreach through a special Web site http://flashproject.org supplying real-time lightning observations, real-time experimental nowcasts, medium-range weather forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning the public, end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.     

Absorption of acoustic waves in monolithic and fibril sunspot models

It has been hypothesized that the observation of substantial absorption of acoustic power in the vicinity of sunspots may be explained by the transformation of acoustic oscillations into highly damped shear Alfvén waves in thin resonant layers. Analytical estimates of the efficiency of this process (Hollweg, 1988) are compared with direct one-dimensional numerical simulations of absorption by a magnetic barrier in a viscous medium. After slight modification, the estimate is found to give a good approximation to the numerical absorption rate.Further calculations are performed for scattering from a magnetic field of fibril structure. Such models are better able to explain the spatial structure of the absorbing region implied by the observations. It is found that the existence of a multiplicity of surfaces at which resonant absorption occurs can considerably increase the total energy absorption coefficient. Resonant effects involving the multiple reflection of acoustic waves within such structures can also lead to enhanced absorption. Fibril models, therefore, produce significantly increased absorption over a wide range of plausible parameter values, and are a more plausible explanation for the observed p-mode scattered power deficit than resonant absorption in a monolithic structure.     

Recharge of aquifers by flood events in an arid region

The process of aquifer recharge by flood events in an arid region was investigated as applied to the Hazeva Formation (the Karkom graben, the Wadi Paran watershed, Israel). The hydrological model was established as a complex system, with due regard for groundwater and transmission losses of surface runoff. It was based on a previously outlined hydrogeological model of the Karkom graben and a model of transmission losses in arid watercourses under conditions of data deficiency. Proceeding from calculation of groundwater balances, the contribution of surface runoff as a decisive balance component was confirmed. The main characteristics of aquifer regimes, such as changes in storage volume and groundwater level, as well as lateral flow, were all found to be dependent upon the net extraction rate, i.e. pumpage discounting replenishment by flood events. Analysis and physical interpretation of model parameters enabled assessment of the influence of groundwater extraction on aquifer recharge. This became apparent as increasing absorption capacity and recharge availability of the aquifer as a result of the groundwater abstraction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.