Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation on Groundwater Resources of Medium Salinity in Tarim Basin and Development and Demonstration of Under-mulch-drip Irrigation Technology for Cotton

The groundwater of medium salinity refers to the groundwater with a mineralization degree of 2-7 g/L that can be directly or indirectly used for irrigation. This paper determined the distribution area of the groundwater with medium salinity in Tarim Basin, estimated the total amount of recharge resources and exploitable quantity of the groundwater of medium salinity. The irrigation water quality assessment was conducted on the groundwater of medium salinity by using multiple factors and methods. The salt tolerance parameters and irrigation water mineralization control parameters of the cotton in under-mulch-drip irrigation were determined. The under-mulch-drip irritation technology for cotton in groundwater of medium salinity was developed and applied successfully to the demonstration area. The social, economic and ecological effects of this technology as well as the application prospect were analysed. This paper also puts forward two questions that need to be further studied     

High resolution seismic investigations for the determination of water flow directions during sulphur deposits exploitation

This paper shows the results of seismic research on some problems of sulphur in-situ mining. The difficulties during exploitation were mainly connected with the lack of detailed information on the structure and tectonics of deposit and overburden strata. This kind of information could be obtained using the High Resolution Seismic method. The use of seismic method allows to determine the range of subsidence provoked by well mining of sulphur. It is very important to undertake the measurements before exploitation, because the comparison of seismic sections before and during exploitation creates a possibility of determining the process of changes in the structure of the deposit and overburden strata.     

High-frequency ocean radar derived characteristics of sea surface currents in the Ariake Sea,Japan

Composite analysis was conducted using high-frequency radar data obtained during 2006–2015 in order to gain a better understanding of the current field in the Ariake Sea. The seasonally averaged surface current in the Ariake Sea was directed southward in all seasons, except around river mouths during summer. Heavy rainfall enhanced the outflow along the eastern coast of the Shimabara Peninsula from Isahaya Bay to the southern area 2–5 days after heavy rainfall. Spring–neap differences were clearly seen in the southward current along the Shimabara Peninsula. Interannual variation in the M₂ tidal current amplitude was synchronized with the lunar nodal cycle.     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.     

大气臭氧与气溶胶垂直分布的高空气球探测

本文给出了1993年9月12日利用高空科学气球在河北省香河地区探测到的大气臭氧和气溶胶的垂直分布。结果发现:(1) 大气臭氧的数密度在整个对流层较低(～10[12]mol/cm3)，并从地面到对流层顶略有下降；对流层顶以上开始快速增加，极值层高度在～24 km，其值为4.78×10[12]mol/cm3；臭氧分压有类似的分布特征，极值146×10[-4]Pa，位于同一高度；(2) 在平流层低层，臭氧分压有一个次极值62×10[-4]Pa，位于15～16 km；(3) 0～30 km大气气溶胶数密度呈现出三个峰值:143，8和1.1 个/cm[3]，分别位于近地面、5 km和21 km；（4）气溶胶的数密度谱在对流层为双模态；在平流层，次峰消失。同时，我们还与其他观测结果作了比较分析。     

Effects of long-term medieval agriculture on soil properties: A case study from the Kislovodsk basin,Northern Caucasus,Russia

The chemical properties and biological activities of soils were studied in the vicinity of the medieval settlement Podkumskoe-3 in the Kislovodsk basin (Northern Caucasus, Russia). Between the 5th and 8th centuries this area was ploughed regularly, but it was then abandoned up to the present day. It has been established that past human activity leads to soil undergoing significant transformations in terms of microbial communities and enzyme activity, and that such changes are maintained over long periods. Long-term manuring in the middle of the first millennium AD led to an increase in organic carbon content and the accumulation of nitrate nitrogen. Soils of ancient abandoned fields are associated with increases in microbial biomass, number of saprotrophic bacteria, urease activity, and fungal mycelium biomass. The observed changes in the microbiological and biochemical properties of soil were conditioned by secondary anthropogenically induced succession after the abandonment of arable lands.     

Seasonal temperatures for the past ∼400 years reconstructed from diatom and chironomid assemblages in a high-altitude lake (Lej da la Tscheppa,Switzerland)

We analysed a 42 cm long sediment record from Lej da la Tscheppa, a high-altitude lake (2,616 m a.s.l.) in the Upper Engadine valley (Switzerland) for subfossil diatoms, chironomids and pollen. The chronology of the top 21 cm of the record was established using ²¹⁰Pb analysis using a constant-rate-of-supply model, and validated with ¹³⁷Cs measurements and the content of spheroidal carbonaceous particles. A tentative chronology for the lower part of the core was obtained through extrapolation of the sedimentation rates in the uppermost part of the record. Pollen assemblages in the record reflect regional changes in forestation and land-use patterns in the Upper Engadine valley and show no evidence of significant local human activity in the lake’s catchment. Diatom assemblages record a distinct increase in planktonic taxa since the early 19th century, suggesting a decrease in the duration of ice-cover. In contrast, chironomid assemblages remained stable during a large part of the record. We applied an established chironomid-based July air temperature transfer function and a newly developed diatom-based spring air temperature transfer function to reconstruct past seasonal air temperature changes at Lej da la Tscheppa. The reconstructions indicate a diatom-inferred warming trend in spring temperatures during the past ca. 400 years, whereas chironomid-inferred summer temperatures suggest a slight cooling trend. These biota-based reconstructions are in good agreement with the centennial-scale temperature trend in an independent reconstruction of regional temperatures in the Upper Engadine region based on instrumental records and documentary proxy evidence from the Alps. Our results suggest that, in high-altitude lakes, independent chironomid- and diatom-based seasonal temperature reconstruction is possible and can be successfully used to track seasonal temperature trends.