Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Electromagnetic research in the ocean

The results of electromagnetic researches at sea and in the oceans are considered. Those in the U.S.S.R. are given particular attention.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

INDUSTRY-GOVERNMENT-ACADEMIC COOPERATION: POSSIBLE BENEFITS FOR GEOGRAPHY

Some current developments outside of academe and their relationship to geography are presented; comments are based on experience from a three year National Science Foundation Faculty Fellowship. Suggestions for improving our educational efforts are discussed, including new roles for the AAG, changes in teaching methods, establishment of advisory boards, and closer ties with industry and government.     

Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant,NE Iran

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmed by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.     

Sedimentological analysis of two drill cores through the crater moat‐filling breccia,Flynn Creek impact structure,Tennessee

Sedimentological (line‐logging) analysis of two drill cores, FC77‐3 and FC67‐3, situated, respectively, in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants of the Flynn Creek impact structure's crater‐moat area reveals that the ~27 m thick crater moat‐filling breccia consists of three subequal parts. These parts, which were deposited during early modification stage of this marine‐target impact structure, are distinguished on the basis of vertical trends in sorting, grain size, and counts of clasts per meter in comparison with other well‐known marine‐target impact structures, namely Lockne, Tvären, and Chesapeake Bay. The lower part is interpreted to represent mainly slump deposits, and the middle part is interpreted to represent a stage intermediate between slump and marine resurge, that is, a traction flow driven by overriding suspension flow. The upper part (size graded, and relatively well sorted and fine grained) is interpreted to represent marine resurge flow only. The upper part is capped by a relatively thin and relatively fine‐grained calcarenite to calcisiltite deposit.     

Sediment deposition in the flood plain of Stemple Creek Watershed, northern California

Over the past 150 years, major land use changes have occurred in the Stemple Creek Watershed in northern California that have caused erosion to move soils from the upland to the flood plain, stream channels, and the bay. The purpose of this study is to document the recent (1954 to present) sediment deposition patterns in the flood plain area adjacent to Stemple Creek using the ¹³⁷Cesium technique. Sediment deposition ranged from 0.26 to 1.84 cm year⁻¹ for the period from 1964 to 2002 with an average of 0.85±0.41 cm year⁻¹. Sediment deposition rates were higher for the 1954 to 1964 period with a range of 0.31–3.50 cm year⁻¹ and an average of 1.29±1.04 cm year⁻¹. These data indicate that sediment deposition in the flood plain has decreased since the middle 1950s, probably related to reduction in row crop agriculture and an increase in pasturelands. This study shows that the flood plains in the Stemple Creek Watershed are a significant sink for the soils being eroded from the upland area. Given the significance of the flood plain for trapping eroded materials before they reach the stream channels or the bay, efforts need to be made to manage these flood plain areas to insure that they do not change and become a source rather than a sink for eroded materials as improved management practices on the upland areas reduce sediment input to the flood plain.