双多普勒雷达风场反演对一次后向传播雷暴过程的分析

利用常规观测、雷达和加密自动站资料,对2013年9月13日上海地区的一次以后向传播为主要特征、伴有强降水和大风的强对流过程进行了分析,并采用双多普勒雷达风场反演等技术,对其形成的环境条件及后向传播机制进行了研究。由于上海连续多日处在副热带高压(副高)西北侧边缘,具备了充足的水汽和较强的不稳定条件,地面辐合线在上海北部触发了初始对流,其出流与地面风场的辐合在西南侧不断触发出新的对流单体,出现了与引导气流相反、指向西南方向的雷暴传播矢量,当单体的新生传播速率大于引导流速率时,雷暴整体产生了与引导气流相反的后向移动。针对该后向传播机制的研究表明:对流单体强下沉运动形成的阵风锋在其西南方向与环境西南风辐合,并与该处原有的地面辐合线碰撞造成更强烈的上升气流,触发新的单体生成,新单体发展成熟后产生强降水和强下沉运动,加强和维持了其西南侧的阵风锋,使得阵风锋向西南方向推进并继续触发新单体生成;风场反演的垂直运动分布和演变也显示了多个对流单体从东北向西南依次表现出消散、成熟和新生阶段的特征。因此,本次过程中形成了"雷暴单体新生发展—成熟后缓慢东北向移动—产生强降水、下沉运动和大风在其西南侧触发新单体"的循环;向西南方向推进的地面阵风锋与原有的地面辐合线共同形成了雷暴西南侧局地锋生区,与新生对流区的位置一致,是该次过程后向传播的主要原因。     

高温炉燃烧-红外吸收法测定重铀酸盐中硫质量分数

建立了高温燃烧红外碳硫仪测定重铀酸盐中硫质量分数的分析方法。样品以五氧化二钒为助熔剂,在高温炉燃烧后,用红外吸收测定重铀酸盐中的硫,样品分析重现性好,精密度高,相对标准偏差为0.26%;样品加标回收率在97.1%~103%之间。     

星载GPS地球静止轨道卫星自主定轨的新算法

针对地球静止轨道卫星的特点,提出了一种自主定轨的新算法--积分滤波算法,即利用Kalman滤波进行动力学模型数值积分与GPS定轨的有效融合.讨论了该算法的基本过程及其中Kalman滤波的数学模型和重要参数.最后给出了仿真实验过程和结果,证明了该算法的可行性.     

基于PixelGrid的标准时点核准影像单景几何纠正方法研究

地理国情普查是国务院部署的重大项目,其中,第一次全国地理国情普查标准时点核准工作于2015年正式启动。面对多源的卫星遥感数据,对于影响因素复杂区域很难实现影像的自动纠正,因而,本文主要介绍了利用PixelGrid软件进行单景影像几何纠正的方法,为其他项目的困难区域影像处理提供参考。     

基于Hydrus-1d模型的农田SPAC系统水分通量估算——以山西省运城市董村农场为例

农田SPAC系统水分通量的研究对提高农业用水效率,缓解我国的水资源短缺现状具有重要作用.本文利用HydruS-1d模型,以山西省运城市董村农场为例,估算了研究区三种主要农作物(夏玉米、棉花和冬小麦)的农田水分通量.结果表明,在模拟期内,夏玉米、棉花和冬小麦的作物蒸腾占蒸散发(T/ET)的比值分别为84.7%、71.6%...     

Trends in the frequency of synoptic types in central-southern Chile in the period 1961–2012 using the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification

Atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Chile (42° 30′ S) were studied in order to determine and analyse the most characteristic synoptic types and their recent trends, as well as to gain an understanding of how they are associated with low-frequency variability patterns. According to the Jenkinson and Collison (J&C) classification method, a 16-point grid of sea-level pressure data was employed. The findings reveal that some synoptic types show statistically significant trends with a 95% confidence level, positively for anticyclonic westerly hybrids (AW) and advective types for third and fourth quadrant wind flows (W, NW, and N) and negatively for SW and cyclonic hybrids (CS and CSW). A model has been constructed of the linear regression of some weather types with teleconnections that most affect Chile: the undetermined types (U), AW were associated with El Niño or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas the cyclonic northerly and cyclonic northeasterly types (CN and CNE) were associated with La Niña or cool phase of the PDO. The weather types associated with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in its positive phase are anticyclonic northerly and northeasterly and northerly advection types, while in its negative phase are cyclonic southwesterly and advection types.     

高土石坝裂缝分析的变形倾度有限元法及其应用

土石坝张拉裂缝一般由坝体的不均匀沉降变形引起,是土石坝破坏的主要诱因和表现形式之一。将基于现场沉降监测资料的传统变形倾度法进行了扩展,通过在有限元计算程序中嵌入变形倾度计算模块,发展了基于有限元变形计算的变形倾度有限元法。该方法简洁实用,方便与常规有限元变形计算相耦合,可作为在工程设计阶段分析和估算土石坝是否会发生表面张拉裂缝的实用方法。应用所发展的变形倾度有限元法,以糯扎渡高心墙堆石坝工程为例,进行了坝体后期变形引起坝体表面发生张拉裂缝的敏感性计算分析,探讨了高土石坝变形倾度的分布规律以及与坝体后期变形的关系,发现对糯扎渡高心墙堆石坝,坝顶后期沉降最大值小于坝高0.39%,可作为防止发生坝顶横向张拉裂缝的控制工况。通过工程实例的计算,说明提出的方法可用于高土石坝的裂缝预测分析。     

初论西藏冈底斯带中段尼木西北部班岩铜矿地质特征

西藏冈底斯带尼木西北部具有斑岩型铜矿产出的有利地质条件，已有厅宫，冲江，白容，岗讲，渡布曲等铜矿床（点），可望形成大型－超大型班岩铜矿集中区，其资源量远景可达400－600万t以上，在分析地背景的基础上，总结了矿床的地质特征，并与国内外斑岩铜矿进行了对比，建立了本区铜矿的综合遥感地质找矿模型。     

石门烤烟产区人工防雹技术分析

通过分析历史资料,总结出石门山区冰雹发源地及移动路线,并确定了最佳防雹作业点.分析2008年以来的防雹作业资料以及部分降雹实况资料,总结出有效判别石门烤烟产区冰雹云的3个定量指标:组合反射率55dBZ、垂直累计液态含水量45 kg/m2、回波顶高11km以及现场观测定性指标.实践证明,定量指标与现场观测定性指标相结合,提早识别冰雹云是防雹作业成功的关键.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.