基于GIS的突发疾病预警控制及指挥调度

城市应急联动系统的建立是一个城市管理发展水平的标志。本文以基于GIS的突发疾病预警控制及指挥调度系统为例,讲述了系统的功能及应用等,注重分析系统的功能特点,以及GIS分析方法应用于疾病防治工作中的突出效能。     

夏季日峰降温电力负荷预测灰色模型及其应用

基于2017—2020年石家庄市逐15分钟电力负荷及同期气象资料,计算人体舒适度指标有效温度和温湿指数,考虑基准负荷存在周期性和增长性,提出采用灰色模型GM(1,1)并结合滤波法、相关分析等方法,建立日峰降温电力负荷与人体舒适度指标分段回归模型。结果表明:石家庄电力负荷具有明显的逐年增长趋势;剥离出的日降温负荷曲线呈“W”型分布;分别对模型进行一次、二次和分段函数拟合,对3种预测模型进行检验发现分段函数预测精度较高,平均相对误差在4.8%～5.2%,有效温度和温湿指数的分段函数误差在-10%～10%所占比例分别为88.1%和90.5%;考虑了温度、湿度和风速的有效温度较温湿指数的夏季日峰降温电力负荷预测模型预测准确率更高,回归模型分段点为26.2℃,对电网“迎峰度夏”时期电力调度具有参考价值。     

均匀流中直立圆柱体绕流三维数值模拟

研究直立贯底圆柱体的三维粘性绕流问题。以不可压缩Navier-Stokes方程为控制方程,采用有限体积法和SIMPLE算法,建立了数值模拟方法。考察在不同水平和垂直断面上,圆柱体绕流产生的尾涡和流动速度场的分布特性,成功地数值模拟了直立贯底圆柱体绕流场的三维特性。结果表明,在考虑重力影响的情况下,直立圆柱体周围的流动具有明显的三维特性,而且沿圆柱体轴向不同断面上的尾涡分布是不相同的。     

Reflection and transmission properties of double submerged rectangular blocks

An analytic method is used to study the reflection and transmission coefficients of the double submerged rectangular blocks (DSRBs) in oblique waves. The scattering potentials are obtained by means of the eigenfunction expansion method, and expressions for the reflection and transmission coefficients are determined. The boundary element method is employed to verify the correctness of the present analytical method. The DSRBs have better performance than the single submerged rectangular block (SSRB) in certain cases. The reflection and transmission properties of the DSRBs are investigated for some specific cases, and the influences of the geometric parameters are also presented.     

WT模型在山区高速公路风预报订正中的应用

利用2001—2020年河北省142个国家气象站逐日最大风速资料分析了近20年河北风速变化背景。择选2021年2—5月张家口、崇礼区域日极大风速13.9 m/s以上、日10 min平均风速最大值8 m/s以上的30个代表日,运用张承高速公路沿线崇礼国家气象站、南窝铺及场地2套区域气象站、高家营及西湾子2套交通气象站的逐分钟风向风速观测资料,ECMWF数值模式输出的地面10 m风预报资料,以及3″分辨率的SRTM3地形资料,应用Meteodyn WT模型对张承高速公路沿线2个解域区域内的风预报结果进行了订正和检验。结果表明：WT模型输出风速与实际观测风速相关系数可达0.6225并通过0.001显著性检验,各代表站模拟的结果与实况的误差80%以上在±2 m/s之间,地形开阔处误差明显减小;风向也表现出很高的一致性。说明应用WT模型对山区高速公路沿线风数值预报进行订正是可行的,各地可结合本地地形数据以及相对稳定可靠的风的数值预报产品作为WT模型的驱动数据源,开展本地山区高速公路沿线风的订正应用。     

北京地区太古宙变质地层研究新进展

北京北部山区密云—怀柔地区广泛分布太古宙变质岩。该区经历多期地质构造作用,矿产丰富,一直以来受到国内外地质学者的广泛关注。通过对北京密云—怀柔地区太古宙变质岩石和年代学深入系统的研究,变质建造、变质作用条件、变形变质和同位素年代学等方面研究,提出本区变质表壳岩新的划分方案,在区内变质地层研究方面取得了新的进展。     

Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China

A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.     

甘肃西和县大桥金矿床的成因研究

大桥金矿床位于岷县北-宕昌北大断裂与窑上-石峡大断裂之间.金矿化严格受三叠系下部建造层下岩性段(Ta-1)硅质角砾岩的控制.硅质角砾岩呈层状产出,层位稳定.矿石为有机质含量高并具有黄铁矿化的硅质角砾岩,其黄铁矿环带发育.硅质角砾岩和纹层状硅质岩在稀土元素配分图上未表现出热水沉积的特征,其Fe/Ti-Al/(Al+ Fe...     

细胞色素B基因PCR-RFLP鉴定阿胶原料

用细胞色素B基因PCR-RFLP方法对阿胶原料进行鉴定。提取马、牛、驴3种动物干皮DNA,PCR扩增细胞色素B基因保守区域的359 bp片段,用限制性内切酶HinfⅠ和HaeⅢ酶切,采用琼脂糖凝胶电泳获得了DNA指纹图谱,根据获得的DNA指纹图谱判定样品所属物种。该方法不仅简便,还可以100%准确鉴定阿胶原料皮样所属物种来源,适合作为常规技术应用于阿胶原料鉴定。     

Scenario-based assessment of future food security

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.