变形监测缺失数据序列灰色建模方法探讨

在测量工作中,由于气候环境、观测方法、观测仪器以及观测人员自身因素等多方面的原因,可能造成观测数据的丢失或者不完全。文中针对这类数据的处理,采用加权平均法和三次样条插值法对缺失数据进行修复,建立GM （1,1）模型,并与非等间隔预测模型进行对比。通过两组仿真数据和两组实测数据验证发现：对于呈指数增长的序列和高增长序列修复之后建模预测精度更高;三次样条插值法数据修复后GM （1,1）建模预测精度较加权平均法预测精度更高;对于低增长序列,直接采用非等间隔建模预测精度更高。     

体素模型的战场环境建模研究

针对基于面模型的战场环境建模难以展现战场环境要素的内部属性和规律等的不足,该文提出了利用体素模型实现战场环境建模的基本方法。该方法能够记录战场环境各要素的不同属性,反映其内部属性和规律,准确地模拟战场地理环境的变换过程,可实现战场环境各要素的统一建模。文章利用体素模型实现了对战场环境的认知与抽象,对战场环境体素数据模型进行了分类。最后以战场地形环境要素为例,利用战场环境基本体元实现了对战场地形环境的体素建模。     

三重加权变形监测预测模型及应用

针对GM(1,1)建模过程存在背景值、时间因素和初始条件3方面的不足,该文提出三重加权TPGM(1,1)预测模型。通过对背景值进行加权生成新的背景值,建立PGM(1,1)模型;在PGM(1,1)基础上考虑到时间因素,在求解灰参数时进行第2次加权建立DPGM(1,1)模型;最后考虑到初始条件对预测模型的影响,在DPGM(1,1)基础上进行第3次加权,建立TPGM(1,1)模型。通过实例分析,比较GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)、DPGM(1,1)、TPGM(1,1)4种模型在变形监测数据处理中的拟合和预测结果,表明三重加权TPGM(1,1)模型拟合效果更好、预测精度更高;该模型具有前3种模型的优点,同时弥补了传统GM(1,1)存在的不足。     

局部均值分解与支持向量回归的大坝变形预测

针对现有变形预测方法对于大坝变形的预测效果不理想的问题,该文利用局部均值分解方法获取生产函数分量并进行支持向量回归建模,用此方法对大坝变形进行多尺度分析。通过局部均值分解对大坝变形序列进行分解得到其乘积函数分量,然后利用支持向量机回归进行外推预测,再把各乘积函数分量的预测结果进行叠加重构生成,进而获得大坝变形预测值。通过实例分析,比较GM(1,1)、支持向量机和该文方法3种模型在变形监测数据处理中的拟合和预测结果,表明该文方法充分发掘数据本身所蕴含的物理机制和物理规律,提高了大坝变形多尺度预测精度。     

川西江浪穹窿煌斑岩地球化学特征及锆石U-Pb定年

为精确厘定川西江浪穹窿煌斑岩的形成时代并探讨其成因,对其进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年及岩石地球化学研究。结果表明,煌斑岩中发育大量2784~604Ma的捕获锆石,最年轻一组岩浆锆石206Pb/238U加权平均年龄为29.85±0.35Ma。岩石地球化学分析显示,煌斑岩具有较低的Si O2含量(47.66%~50.93%)及高的K2O含量(4.98%~6.77%)、(Th/Ta)PM值(14.7~17.6)、(La/Nb)PM值(9.69~13.0),富集轻稀土和大离子亲石元素(如Rb、Sr、Ba和U),亏损高场强元素(如Nb、Ta和Ti)。综合前人研究成果,认为煌斑岩结晶年龄为~30Ma,形成于印度-亚洲大陆后碰撞伸展背景下的板内岩浆作用,且基性岩浆上升过程中明显遭受地壳物质混染。煌斑岩与雅砻江断裂具有密切的时空联系,暗示区内发育的新生代走滑断裂体系可能为岩浆侵位提供了通道。此外,两粒207Pb/206Pb年龄为2784Ma与2439Ma的锆石表明江浪穹窿很可能存在太古宙-古元古代变质基底。     

Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis based on principal component analysis and self-organizing map: a case study in Southwest China

A method was developed to analyze the susceptibilities of 541 regional basins affected by debris flows at the Wudongde Dam site in southwest China. Determining susceptibility requires information on source material quantity and occurrence frequency. However, the large number of debris flows can hinder the individual field investigation in a each small basin. Factors that may trigger debris flows can be identified using remotely sensed interpretation information. Susceptibility analysis can then be conducted based on these factors. In this study, SPOT5 satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), a lithology distribution map, and rainfall monitoring data were used to identify 12 debris flow trigger factors: basin relief ratio, slope gradient in the initiation zone, drainage density, downslope curvature of the main channel, vegetation coverage, main channel aspect, topographic wetness index, Melton’s ruggedness number, lithology, annual rainfall, form factor, and cross-slope curvature of the transportation zone. Principal component analysis was used to obtain the eight principal components of these factors that contribute to susceptibility results. Then, a self-organizing map method was adopted to analyze the principal components, which resulted in a debris flow susceptibility classification. Field validation of 26 debris flow basins was used to evaluate the errors of the susceptibility classification, as well as assess the causes of such errors. The study found that principle component analysis and self-organizing map methodologies are good predictors of basin susceptibility to debris flows.     

中国水产品非关税贸易壁垒的实证研究——基于贸易引力模型

随着贸易自由化程度的提高以及"黄箱政策"的出台,关税壁垒在国际贸易竞争中的作用日益减弱,许多国家逐步设置以进口配额、许可证、检验检疫和技术标准等非关税壁垒为主的贸易保护措施,同时各国在政治、文化和风俗习惯等方面的差异也会对国际贸易产生一定的影响。文章以2000—2014年中国与美国、日本、韩国、加拿大和东盟的贸易面板数据为基础,在Tinbergen(1962)和Poyhonen(1963)所建立的传统贸易引力模型的基础上,对原有模型中的变量进行改进和拓展,创新提出使用军事冲突变量去量化非关税贸易壁垒对我国水产品贸易的影响,同时结合双因素方差分析方法探究贸易品种和国家区域的差异对于贸易总额的影响;结果显示,我国水产品贸易政策存在一定的调整空间,可根据不同国家背景和贸易种类在区域一体化政策、水产品生产、物流渠道建设和文化宣传方面进行政策和方法的改进。     

Effects of experimental warming on soil microbial communities in two contrasting subalpine forest ecosystems,eastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Soil microbial communities are primarily regulated by environmental temperature. Our study investigated the effects of global warming on soil microbial community composition as measured via phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and soil chemical characteristics in relation to soil depth in a dragon spruce plantation and a spruce-fir-dominated natural forestin the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. Open-top chambers were utilized to increase the soil and air temperature. Soil samples were collected from the 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-30 cm layers after a 4-year warming. Our results showed that the soil microbial community and the contents of TC (Total carbon), TN (Total nitrogen), NO ₃ ^- , and NH ₄ ⁺ responded differently to warming in the two contrasting forests, especially at the 0-10 cm soil depth. Warming increased soil microbial biomass at the 0-20 cm depth of soil in natural forest but reduced it at the 0-10 cm depth ofsoil in the plantation. In contrast, the TC and TN contents were reduced in most soil layers of a natural forest but increased in all of the soil layers of the plantation under warming conditions. This result suggested that the effects of warming on soil microbial community and soil C and N pools would differ according to soil depth and forest types; thus, the two contrasting forests would under go differing changes following the future climate warming in this region.     

Altitudinal trends in δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C value,stomatal density and nitrogen content of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus tabuliformis</Emphasis> needles on the southern slope of the middle Qinling Mountains,China

In this study, a coniferous tree species (Pinus tabuliformis Carr.) was investigated at a moderate-altitude mountainous terrain on the southern slope of the middle Qinling Mountains (QLM) to detect the trends in carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³C), leaf nitrogen content (LNC) and stomatal density (SD) with altitude variation in north-subtropical humid mountain climate zone of China. The results showed that LNC and SD both significantly increased linearly along the altitudinal gradient ranging from 1000 to 2200 m, whereas leaf δ¹³C exhibited a significantly negative correlation with the altitude. Such a correlation pattern differs obviously from that obtained in offshore low-altitude humid environment or inland high-altitude semi-arid environment, suggesting that the pattern of increasing δ¹³C with the altitude cannot be generalized. The negative correlation between δ¹³C and altitude might be attributed mainly to the strengthening of carbon isotope fractionation in plants caused by increasing precipitation with altitude. Furthermore, there was a remarkable negative correlation between leaf δ¹³C and LNC. One possible reason was that increasing precipitation that operates to increase isotopic discrimination with altitude overtook the LNC in determining the sign of leaf δ¹³C. The significant negative correlation between leaf δ¹³C and SD over altitudes was also found in the present study, indicating that increases in SD with altitude would reduce, rather than enhance plant δ¹³C values.     

Approximate optimal tracking control for near-surface AUVs with wave disturbances

This paper considers the optimal trajectory tracking control problem for near-surface autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the presence of wave disturbances. An approximate optimal tracking control (AOTC) approach is proposed. Firstly, a six-degrees-of-freedom (six-DOF) AUV model with its body-fixed coordinate system is decoupled and simplified and then a nonlinear control model of AUVs in the vertical plane is given. Also, an exosystem model of wave disturbances is constructed based on Hirom approximation formula. Secondly, the time-parameterized desired trajectory which is tracked by the AUV’s system is represented by the exosystem. Then, the coupled two-point boundary value (TPBV) problem of optimal tracking control for AUVs is derived from the theory of quadratic optimal control. By using a recently developed successive approximation approach to construct sequences, the coupled TPBV problem is transformed into a problem of solving two decoupled linear differential sequences of state vectors and adjoint vectors. By iteratively solving the two equation sequences, the AOTC law is obtained, which consists of a nonlinear optimal feedback item, an expected output tracking item, a feedforward disturbances rejection item, and a nonlinear compensatory term. Furthermore, a wave disturbances observer model is designed in order to solve the physically realizable problem. Simulation is carried out by using the Remote Environmental Unit (REMUS) AUV model to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.