Sliding element simulating the response of slip surfaces and its application for the prediction of earthquake-induced landslide movement using one-dimensional dynamic analyses

Landslides - Earthquake-induced landslides involve excessive movement of slopes, usually along slip surfaces. This seismic movement of slopes may depend crucially on (a) the soil response along the...     

川西北下二叠统栖霞组微生物丘的发现及地质意义*

通过野外露头与钻井剖面的室内外分析,确认在四川盆地西北部(川西北)下二叠统栖霞组中发育有微生物丘,它们主要由凝块灰(云)岩、叠层灰(云)岩和微生物粘结颗粒灰(云)岩等组成。这些微生物碳酸盐岩发育较为典型的凝块、叠层、窗格、粘结等组构。微生物丘大小不一,实测高度一般为几十厘米至几米,宽度通常变化于几米至几十米之间,具有底平顶凸的典型丘形外貌,以发育向上变浅的沉积序列为特征,一般由丘基、丘核、丘盖3个微相组成,也可与颗粒滩共同构成微生物丘滩复合体。基于区域古地理背景和微生物丘特征的剖析,认为川西北地区栖霞期沉积环境总体受限,推测为半局限—局限台地环境,水深较浅,能量普遍不高;海平面频繁的相对升降变化和微生物丘的侧向迁移叠置,导致发育于缓坡背景下的碳酸盐岩台地极易受限,引起早期沉积物发生与丘滩发育密切相关的准同生期白云石化作用。因此,微生物丘滩复合体是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的物质基础,台缘坡折带、台内缓坡折带和高地是栖霞组白云岩储集层发育的有利区带,这对寻找规模性层位不稳定的带状白云岩储集层具有重要的指导作用,并将大大拓展栖霞组白云岩储集层的勘探领域。     

利用地面LiDAR精细化测量活断层微地貌形态——以毛垭坝断裂禾尼处断层崖为例

受地壳内部持续运动和沉积、风化等自然动力及人类生产与生活活动影响,活断层微地貌形态往往比较复杂,传统测量方法较难快速、高效地获取大范围内精细化的活断层微地貌形态,激光雷达扫描技术的出现和发展为活断层微地貌的精细化与定量化研究提供了新的技术手段。以川西理塘毛垭坝盆地北缘的正断层崖为研究对象,利用地面LiDAR获取活断层微地貌高精度点云后,经过点云配准、滤波、重采样和三角构网处理后,建立了0.05 m分辨率的数字高程模型和真彩色三维模型,在此基础上分析了断层崖地貌特征,并获取了正断层错动两期最新地貌面的精确垂直位错量。研究结果表明,地面LiDAR技术是精细测量活断层微地貌形态和量化相关地貌特征参数的有效手段,提高了活断层微地貌形态测量的精度和认识水平。     

Lower Cretaceous turbidites in the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone,Asa area,Tibet:Constraints on the evolution of the Meso-Tethys Ocean

Turbidites from the Shiquanhe–Namco Ophiolite Mélange Zone(SNMZ) record critical information about the tectonic affinity of the SNMZ and the evolutionary history of the Meso-Tethys Ocean in Tibet.This paper reports sedimentologic,sandstone petrographic,zircon U-Pb geochronologic,and clastic rocks geochemical data of newly identified turbidites(Asa Formation) in the Asa Ophiolite Mélange.The youngest ages of detrital zircon from the turbiditic sandstone samples,together with ～115 Ma U-Pb concordant age from the tuff intercalation within the Asa Formation indicate an Early Cretaceous age.The sandstone mineral modal composition data show that the main component is quartz grains and the minor components are sedimentary and volcanic fragments,suggesting that the turbidites were mainly derived from a recycled orogen provenance with a minor addition of volcanic arc materials.The detrital U-Pb zircon ages of turbiditic sandstones yield main age populations of170–120 Ma,300–220 Ma,600–500 Ma,1000–700 Ma,1900–1500 Ma,and ～2500 Ma,similar to the ages of the Qiangtang Terrane(age peak of 600–500 Ma,1000–900 Ma,～1850 Ma and ～2500 Ma) and the accretionary complex in the Bangong–Nujiang Ophiolite Zone(BNMZ) rather than the age of the Central Lhasa Terrane(age peak of ～300 Ma,～550 Ma and ～1150 Ma).The mineral modal compositions,detrital U-Pb zircon ages,and geochemical data of clastic rocks suggest that the Asa Formation is composed of sediments primarily recycled from the Jurassic accretionary complex within the BNMZ with the secondary addition of intermediate-felsic island arc materials from the South Qiangtang Terrane.Based on our new results and previous studies,we infer that the SNMZ represents a part of the Meso-Tethys Suture Zone,rather than a southward tectonic klippe of the BNMZ or an isolated ophiolitic mélange zone within the Lhasa Terrane.The Meso-Tethys Suture Zone records the continuous evolutionary history of the northward subduction,accretion,arc-Lhasa collision,and Lhasa-Qiangtang collision of the Meso-Tethys Ocean from the Early Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous.     

东昆仑山中段布尔汗布达山地区断裂特征及昆中断裂带南界讨论

布尔汗布达山西南缘属东昆仑造山带腹地,新太古代以来区域构造作用强烈。中二叠世,随着东昆仑地区多岛洋盆依次关闭,研究区形成数条近于平行的EW向深大断裂组合,构成昆中断裂带主体格架。通过研究分析与断裂相关的地形地貌、遥感影像、地球物理、岩石地层、变形变质、断裂结构组成、显微构造等,总结出主要断裂特征,并梳理了区内构造格架,针对尚未统一认识的昆中断裂带南界问题进行探讨,最终认为温冷恩断裂属昆中断裂带南界断裂。研究成果为进一步开展相关地质问题分析提供了依据。     

基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。     

一次梅雨暴雨的动能谱特征分析及收支诊断

利用WRF模式和NCEP再分析资料,对一次梅雨暴雨个例进行了数值模拟,基于高分辨率的模拟结果计算了水平动能谱、涡旋动能谱及辐散动能谱,诊断了动能收支谱方程。结果表明:在暴雨发展阶段,各个高度上都有中尺度动能增长,其显著增加始于中尺度低端,这导致了在中尺度波段出现谱转折特征,但在不同高度转折尺度不同;对流层高层涡旋动能大于辐散动能,平流层低层反之;不同降水阶段、不同高度和不同尺度上动能的来源不同,对流层高层,中尺度动能倾向由非线性项和气压项贡献;平流层低层,气压项的作用更为明显。     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

一次“晴天霹雳”致死事件分析

对2017年广州从化地区一次"晴朗"天气下的闪电致死事件进行调查分析发现,这次事件是闪电首先击中一棵大树,然后击中附近人员头顶致死。根据目击者描述的时间和位置,利用闪电低频电场变化探测阵列的定位数据和广东电力等系统的雷电定位数据,结合广州番禺雷达观测资料,确定此事件是由一次含有7次回击的地闪过程的首次回击造成,其电流峰值强度为-30.9 kA。闪电起始于13.0 km高度的云内,经约600 ms云内发展过程后闪电通道从云体延伸出来,云砧区边缘（0 dBz）到回击点水平距离约300 m,降水区边缘（18 dBz）到回击点水平距离约1.8 km。使用雷击现场等效电路模型,计算旁络闪击空气击穿场强可击穿空气与人头部连接为通路,根据电路分流原理,如果雷电流击中13 m高的大树后流经到"跳点"（树干上方1/4）处后,则有13.2 kA雷电流直接闪击到受害者身上,同时还承受了78.3 kV跨步电压伤害,而距离雷击点10 m远的目击者仅承受1.3 kV跨步电压。      

降水现象仪观测应用评估

利用2017年9月至2018年8月北京20个站降水现象仪采集数据与人工平行观测数据,对降水现象仪进行了对比评估。结果表明:降水现象仪的缺测率为0.01%,空报率为0.6%,捕获率为93.5%,漏报率为27.9%,错报率为10.0%。从统计结果可知,降水现象仪的缺测率、空报率较低,捕获率较高,体现出设备性能良好的一面,漏报率和错报率偏高,表明设备漏识别和错误识别的情况较多,漏报主要发生在弱降水过程中,错报主要出现在毛毛雨的识别上。设备测量和人工观测降水开始时间一致性较好,终止时间一致性偏差;降水现象仪现存问题:在大雨强时易出现雨滴叠加误识别,在小雨强时识别率会降低,在无降水错误输出降水现象方面缺少质控。