Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of genetic algorithms and shuffled complex evolution approach for calibrating distributed rainfall–runoff model

Three methods, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Micro‐Genetic Algorithm (µGA), are applied in parameter calibration of a grid‐based distributed rainfall–runoff model (GBDM) and compared by their performances. Ten and four historical storm events in the Yan‐Shui Creek catchment, Taiwan, provide the database for model calibration and verification, respectively. The study reveals that the SCE, SGA and µGA have close calibration results, and none of them are superior with respect to all the performance measures, i.e. the errors of time to peak, peak discharge and the total runoff volume, etc. The performances of the GBDM for the verification events are slightly worse than those in the calibration events, but still quite satisfactory. Among the three methods, the SCE seems to be more robust than the other two approaches because of the smallest influence of different initial random number seeds on calibrated model parameters, and has the best performance of verification with a relatively small number of calibration events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GPS/LEO掩星技术中超折射效应的修正

在GPS掩星探测地球大气技术中，Abel积分变换要求大气折射指数n是折射半径a的单值函数，当大气折射率的垂直梯度达到小于一个极限值dN／dr≈-0．16N-unit m^-1上述单值性不成立，称其为超折射，此时Abel积分变换不再适用,如果还是在形式上应用经典的Abel变换，在反演结果中就会产生负大气折射率偏差．描述了低对流层中超折射现象的物理特性和数学表示；在广义Abel积分变换的基础上，讨论了超折射层内和超折射层下的大气剖面反演算法；选择了一个简单的采样间隔内等大气折射率垂直梯度假设，对英国高分辨率无线电探空观测资料进行模拟计算，验证了负超折射与大气折射率偏差的关系，并提出的广义Abel变换的合理性.     

中性大气掩星标准反演技术

结合JPL和GFZ的中性大气标准反演算法，发展了上海天文台中性大气掩星标准反演算法流程．对CHAMP观测资料进行中性大气反演，并将反演结果与ECMWF(the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)的预报大气数据进行比较．作为讨论，指出将来的发展方向．     

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.     

GIS支持下的土壤重金属污染预测预警研究

面对日益严重的土壤重金属污染问题,必须采用快速高效的方法对污染趋势做出预测预警。本研究建立了土壤重金属污染预警模型和土壤重金属污染超标年限预测模型,并在GIS技术支持下,开发了基于ArcView GIS的预警预测程序模块,实现了对土壤重金属污染的预警预测。最后以北京市及其近郊区为实例,对该区重金属污染进行了预警并对Pb元素超标年限进行了预测,取得了较好的预警预测结果。     

黄骅坳陷孔南地区孔二段湖盆结构恢复

孔南地区孔二段受到沧东断层、徐西断层等活动影响,地层结构遭受强烈的改造,原有湖盆结构发生了很大的变化。隆起区构造单元富泥质沉积,凹陷构造单元富砂质沉积,成为研究区孔二段的主要特征之一,也成为研究的难点。本文通过对研究区孔二段沉积厚度、岩相、沉积相、构造分析以及等时地层格架下的沉积体系展布规律分析等,对孔二段沉积时期湖盆结构进行了恢复,改变了以往认为孔店期为断陷产物的认识,得出孔二段沉积时期,湖盆总体为坳陷盆地,现今处于盆地中心的孔店隆起构造带为孔二期的古湖盆中心和沉降中心。这一结论对认识黄骅坳陷孔南地区盆地演化,成因机制和油气勘探具有重要的意义。     

多源遥感影像融合最佳波段选择及质量评价研究

本文选用了有蓝色波段和无蓝色波段两种遥感数据源,使用定量指标对各波段进行基本统计及分析,并计算各波段之间的联合熵、协方差、相关系数及最佳指数,确定四类遥感数据各自的最佳波段组合;并采用了几种融合方法将四种影像按照最佳波段组合融合,计算融合后影像与原始影像之间的相关系数,分析得到两类数据的最佳融合方法。     

形态参数下地表采动裂缝三维建模及可视化方法

实现对地表采动裂缝的三维建模及可视化能促进裂缝的形状、成因研究,并为开采沉陷监测和生态环境恢复提供科学支持。目前三维建模方法和软件主要面向建筑物、管道、地质体等地物地貌,若直接应用于地表裂缝的建模与表达会存在野外测绘工作量大、形态规律表达不准确、呈现不逼真等问题。本文结合三维地形建模、分形、空间插值等理论,提出了基于几何形态参数的地表裂缝三维建模方法,并利用ArcEngine平台实现了对裂缝的三维可视化;选取甘肃省东峡矿区为试验区,根据裂缝分布与形态预计参数,实现了对区域内裂缝的模拟,并通过与实测数据和高分辨率影像进行对比,验证了该方法能真实逼真呈现裂缝的形态、延伸与细节信息。     

基于仿生视觉的单相机光场成像及3-3维直接转换基础

本文是机器视觉参量下的三维数字摄影测量智能构象第三部分,以仿生复眼运动目标捕获的3-3-2信息处理方式为切入点,提出生物利用复眼进行三维成像的基本原理,然而由于传统仿生视觉受到硬件条件制约,所以本文在仿生复眼3-3-2信息获取理论的基础上,利用新一代微透镜阵列光场相机技术,提出了一种以单张光场影像获取目标场景深度信息的方法,并将其应用至绝对深度测量中。由于光场影像的一个重要的特性在于记录进入相机的不同光线的强度与方向信息,本文提出利用光线信息进行多深度层次重聚焦的方法,通过对物点在不同层次进行聚焦代价计算,确定出物点成像的平面,最终构建基于物点成像平面位置的深度图。与传统的光场深度估计相比,本文方法计算的深度图可以显著提升分辨率,且不依赖于光场微透镜的数目。为了验证本文方法的有效性,利用本文的算法与现有的深度信息的算法进行深度计算的比较。