Observed Evolution of Linear and Nonlinear Effects at the Dahan Downhole Array,Taiwan: Analysis of the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi Earthquake Sequence

— In this paper, the site characteristics of the Dahan downhole array are studied by analyzing the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including the main shock and some aftershocks. The four-level array (0 m, 50 m, 100 m and 200 m) is located to the north of Hualien City in eastern Taiwan. Polarization analysis is used to check the orientation errors of the seismometers at different levels of depth. If the surface instrument is chosen as reference, the angle between the major polarization axes of the surface and any downhole records is the orientation error that must be corrected for the downhole accelerographs. The orientation errors at depths of 50 m, 100 m and 200 m are 32°, 120° and –84°. After the corrections, the coherency between the surface and downhole records is substantially improved. Spectral ratio analysis shows that the predominant frequency of the Chi-Chi main shock shifts to a lower frequency. We also simulate ground motions at different depths by using the Haskell method with a linear velocity structure model. The record at surface is chosen as the input motion. Compared with the observed data, ground acceleration can be well reproduced for the aftershocks (weak-motion events) of the September 21, 1999 M 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake. However, for the Chi-Chi main shock, the synthetic waveform cannot match well with the observation neither in amplitude nor in phase. This indicates that large ground shaking probably induced the nonlinear site effect at that time, and the model used cannot support it.Acknowledgement. The authors would like to express their thanks to Dr. L.F. Bonilla and one anonymous reviewer for their valuable suggestions. This research was supported by the National Science Council under grant number NSC 89-2921-M-194-007. The Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica supplied the strong-motion data. The support of these organizations is gratefully acknowledged.     

Distinct groundwater recharge sources and geochemical evolution of two adjacent sub-basins in the lower Shule River Basin,northwest China

Based on analysis of groundwater hydrogeochemical and isotopic data, this study aims to identify the recharge sources and understand geochemical evolution of groundwater along the downstream section of the Shule River, northwest China, including two sub-basins. Groundwater samples from the Tashi sub-basin show markedly depleted stable isotopes compared to those in the Guazhou sub-basin. This difference suggests that groundwater in the Tashi sub-basin mainly originates from meltwater in the Qilian Mountains, while the groundwater in the Guazhou sub-basin may be recharged by seepage of the Shule River water. During the groundwater flow process in the Tashi sub-basin, minerals within the aquifer material (e.g., halite, calcite, dolomite, gypsum) dissolve in groundwater. Mineral dissolution leads to strongly linear relationships between Na⁺ and Cl^? and between Mg²⁺+ Ca²⁺ and SO₄ ^2??+?HCO₃ ^?, with stoichiometry ratios of approximately 1:1 in both cases. The ion-exchange reaction plays a dominant role in hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater in the Guazhou sub-basin and causes a good linear relationship between (Mg²⁺+ Ca²⁺)–(SO₄ ^2??+?HCO₃ ^?) and (Na⁺+ K⁺)–Cl^? with a slope of ?0.89 and also results in positive chloroalkaline indices CAI 1 and CAI 2. The scientific results have implications for groundwater management in the downstream section of Shule River. As an important irrigation district in Hexi Corridor, groundwater in the Guazhou sub-basin should be used sustainably and rationally because its recharge source is not as abundant as expected. It is recommended that the surface water should be used efficiently and routinely, while groundwater exploitation should be limited as much as possible.     

Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995:_2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31% and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East

This article presents the latest generation of ground-motion models for the prediction of elastic response (pseudo-) spectral accelerations, as well as peak ground acceleration and velocity, derived using pan-European databases. The models present a number of novelties with respect to previous generations of models (Ambraseys et al. in Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 25:371–400, 1996, Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005; Bommer et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 1:171–203, 2003; Akkar and Bommer in Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010), namely: inclusion of a nonlinear site amplification function that is a function of $\text{ V }_\mathrm{S30}$ and reference peak ground acceleration on rock; extension of the magnitude range of applicability of the model down to $\text{ M }_\mathrm{w}$ 4; extension of the distance range of applicability out to 200 km; extension to shorter and longer periods (down to 0.01 s and up to 4 s); and consistent models for both point-source (epicentral, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{epi}$ , and hypocentral distance, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{hyp}$ ) and finite-fault (distance to the surface projection of the rupture, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{JB}$ ) distance metrics. In addition, data from more than 1.5 times as many earthquakes, compared to previous pan-European models, have been used, leading to regressions based on approximately twice as many records in total. The metadata of these records have been carefully compiled and reappraised in recent European projects. These improvements lead to more robust ground-motion prediction equations than have previously been published for shallow (focal depths less than 30 km) crustal earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East. We conclude with suggestions for the application of the equations to seismic hazard assessments in Europe and the Middle East within a logic-tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainty.     

An Improved Approach for Parameterizing Surface-Layer Turbulent Transfer Coefficients in Numerical Models

Based on classic iterative computation results, new equations to calculate the surface turbulent transfer coefficients are proposed, which allow for large ratios of the momentum and heat roughness lengths. Compared to the Launiainen scheme, our proposed scheme generates results closer to classical iterative computations. Under unstable stratification, the relative error in the Launiainen scheme increases linearly with increasing instability, even exceeding 15%, while the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 8.5%. Under stable stratification, the Launiainen scheme uses two equations, one for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.08 and another for 0.08 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2, and does not consider the condition that Ri _B > 0.2, while its relative errors in the region 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 exceed 31 and 24% for momentum and heat transfer coefficients, respectively. In contrast, the present scheme uses only one equation for 0 < Ri _B ≤ 0.2 and another equation for Ri _B > 0.2, and the relative error of the present scheme is always less than 14%.     

Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.     

Assessment of PPP integer ambiguity resolution using GPS,GLONASS and BeiDou (IGSO,MEO) constellations

Although integer ambiguity resolution (IAR) can improve positioning accuracy considerably and shorten the convergence time of precise point positioning (PPP), it requires an initialization time of over 30 min. With the full operation of GLONASS globally and BDS in the Asia–Pacific region, it is necessary to assess the PPP–IAR performance by simultaneous fixing of GPS, GLONASS, and BDS ambiguities. This study proposed a GPS + GLONASS + BDS combined PPP–IAR strategy and processed PPP–IAR kinematically and statically using one week of data collected at 20 static stations. The undifferenced wide- and narrow-lane fractional cycle biases for GPS, GLONASS, and BDS were estimated using a regional network, and undifferenced PPP ambiguity resolution was performed to assess the contribution of multi-GNSSs. Generally, over 99% of a posteriori residuals of wide-lane ambiguities were within ±0.25 cycles for both GPS and BDS, while the value was 91.5% for GLONASS. Over 96% of narrow-lane residuals were within ±0.15 cycles for GPS, GLONASS, and BDS. For kinematic PPP with a 10-min observation time, only 16.2% of all cases could be fixed with GPS alone. However, adding GLONASS improved the percentage considerably to 75.9%, and it reached 90.0% when using GPS + GLONASS + BDS. Not all epochs could be fixed with a correct set of ambiguities; therefore, we defined the ratio of the number of epochs with correctly fixed ambiguities to the number of all fixed epochs as the correct fixing rate (CFR). Because partial ambiguity fixing was used, when more than five ambiguities were fixed correctly, we considered the epoch correctly fixed. For the small ratio criteria of 2.0, the CFR improved considerably from 51.7% for GPS alone, to 98.3% when using GPS + GLONASS + BDS combined solutions.     

Origin of EL3 chondrites: Evidence for variable C/O ratios during their course of formation—A state of the art scrutiny

Mineral inventories of enstatite chondrites; (EH and EL) are strictly dictated by combined parameters mainly very low dual oxygen (fO₂) and sulfur (fS₂) fugacities. They are best preserved in the Almahata Sitta MS‐17, MS‐177 fragments, and the ALHA 77295 and MAC 88136 Antarctic meteorites. These conditions induce a stark change of the geochemical behavior of nominally lithophile elements to chalcophile or even siderophile and changes in the elemental partitioning thus leading to formation of unusual mineral assemblages with high abundance of exotic sulfide species and enrichment in the metallic alloys, for example, silicides and phosphides. Origin and mode of formation of these exotic chondrites, and their parental source regions could be best scrutinized by multitask research experiments of the most primitive members covering mineralogical, petrological, cosmochemical, and indispensably short‐lived isotopic chronology. The magnitude of temperature and pressure prevailed during their formation in their source regions could eventually be reasonably estimated: pre‐ and postaccretionary could eventually be deduced. The dual low fugacities are regulated by the carbon to oxygen ratios estimated to be >0.83 and <1.03. These parameters not only induce unusual geochemical behavior of the elements inverting many nominally lithophile elements to chalcophile or even siderophile or anthracophile. Structure and mineral inventories in EL3 and EH3 chondrites are fundamentally different. Yet EH3 and EL3 members store crucial information relevant to eventual source regions and importantly possible variation in C/O ratio in the course of their evolution. EL3 and EH3 chondrites contain trichotomous lithologies (1) chondrules and their fragments, (2) polygonal enstatite‐dominated objects, and (3) multiphase metal‐rich nodules. Mineralogical and cosmochemical inventories of lithologies in the same EL3 indicate not only similarities (REE inventory and anomalies in oldhamite) but also distinct differences (sinoite‐enstatite‐graphite relationship). Oldhamite in chondrules and polygonal fragments in EL3 depict negative Eu anomaly attesting a common cosmochemical source. Metal‐dominated nodules in both EL3 and EH3 are conglomerates of metal clasts and sulfide fragments in EH3 and concentrically zoned C‐bearing metal micropebbles (≥25 μm ≤50 μm) in EL3 thus manifesting a frozen in unique primordial accretionary metal texture and composition. Sinoite‐enstatite‐diopside‐graphite textures reveal a nucleation and growth strongly suggestive of fluctuating C/O ratio during their nucleation and growth in the source regions. Mineral inventories, sulfide phase relations, sinoite‐enstatite‐graphite intergrowth, carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of graphite, spatial nitrogen abundance in graphite in metal nodules, and last but not least ¹²⁹I/¹²⁹Xe and ⁵³Mn/⁵³Cr systematics negate any previously suggested melting episode, pre‐accretionary or dynamic, in parental asteroids.     

On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.