基于贝叶斯融合方法的高分辨率地面-卫星-雷达三源降水融合试验

为了探讨一种适用于区域性的地面、雷达、卫星等多源降水资料融合的方法,一种曾用于高分辨雷达、卫星土壤湿度产品反演的贝叶斯融合(Bayesian Merging)方法被尝试应用于江淮地区1 h-0.05°×0.05°经纬度高分辨率的雷达估测降水、卫星反演降水与地面站点观测降水3种资料的融合。在应用该方法时,通过2009年8月样本统计分别估计卫星和雷达反演降水的误差关系,通过曲线拟合建立误差方程,并以卫星资料作为背景场,但在融合时将雷达估测降水作为新的观测信息与地面观测降水同时引入。融合试验检验结果表明:贝叶斯融合方法能够有效实现雷达、地面、卫星3种不同来源资料的融合,该方法生成的多源融合产品的精度均优于任何单一来源的降水产品。     

Atypical occlusion process caused by the merger of a sea-breeze front and gust front

An atypical occlusion process that occurred in North China on 14 July 2011 is studied based on both observations and a real-data Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. The results show that this atypical occlusion process was significantly different from the traditional, synoptic-scale occlusion process that occurs within extratropical cyclones. It was caused by the merger of two cold-type mesoscale fronts. One of the fronts developed from the gust front of convective storms, while the other was a sea-breeze front. As the two fronts moved towards each other, the warm air between them was squeezed and separated from the surface. An atypical occluded front was formed when the two fronts merged, with the warm air forced aloft. This kind of occlusion is termed a "merger" process, different from the well-known "catch-up" and "wrap-up" processes. Moreover, local convection was found to be enhanced during the merger process, with severe convective weather produced in the merger area.     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

双站摄像资料重建闪电三维通道的方法

为了满足准确分析闪电通道三维发展特征和闪电先导相互作用的需求,建立了一种利用双站摄像资料重建闪电三维通道的方法,从两幅在不同位置拍摄到的闪电二维图像上分别获取通道的坐标序列,利用空间立体几何原理,寻找两组序列中互相匹配的坐标,再由匹配的坐标序列重建出最终的闪电三维通道。通过对一次实际观测个例的重建与分析,验证了重建算法在实际观测中的可靠性,并对闪电通道的三维长度和二维长度进行了对比,发现两者差异可达2倍以上,充分说明了闪电三维特征分析的重要性。     

LD-Ⅱ和ADTD型闪电定位资料的对比分析

为了更全面地了解LD-Ⅱ和ADTD型闪电定位资料的准确性,利用安徽省2010年3—9月两套闪电定位系统监测到的资料,对比分析安徽省雷电活动规律,结果表明:两套资料在地闪总数、地闪时间变化、地闪空间分布、雷电流极性和强度等方面都存在较大的差异,LD-Ⅱ型闪电定位系统积累的资料时间较长,但ADTD型闪电定位系统在地闪空间分布、雷电流极性和强度的探测方面准确度更高.与雷灾资料对比发现,ADTD型闪电定位仪监测到的闪电记录距离受灾点较近、误差较小.     

南阳市1960—2013年高温日数变化特征及原因分析

根据国家气象信息中心气象资料室1960—2013年南阳市地面气象月报表的观测资料,采用线性回归、简单相关系数法、M-K突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了南阳市高温日数的变化特征,结果表明:1960—2013年南阳市共出现788次高温日;出现高温日数最多的是2013年,为37天;1987年无高温日。南阳市高温日数6月份最多,占高温天气发生总次数的36.7%;9月最少,占总次数的2.2%。从1960—2013年高温日的逐年分布情况可以看出,54 a间高温日数整体呈下降趋势,倾向率为-1.59天/10a。南阳市年高温日数在20世纪70年代的降低是一突变,具体是从1971年开始。由南阳高温日数小波系数实部图可见,高温日数存在多重时间周期尺度上的嵌套复杂结构现象,包含了多个不同尺度的周期变化,南阳年高温日数变化存在3个明显的周期振荡,分别是10~12 a、26~28 a和50~51 a的尺度。从小波方差图中可以看出,12 a、28 a、50 a存在峰值,其中尺度50 a峰值最高,能量最大;其次是尺度12 a的。高温日数较多年比高温日数较少年6—8月500 h Pa平均环流场副高西伸脊点更偏西;高温日数较多年500 h Pa平均环流场更为平直,以纬向环流为主,不利于冷空气南下,因此多晴热天气。高温日数较少年环流场上华北地区波动幅度更大,冷空气和降水天气过程较多。1960—2013年5—9月降水量呈增加趋势,这也相应地减少了高温天气。1960—2013年5—9月南阳市日照时数一直处于下降趋势,日照时数的下降也使高温日数减少。     

优秀教师评价学生学业的策略与技巧

学业评价是教师教育教学中的重要环节,不仅关系到对学生的评价,也关系到学生对学习的情感态度和努力投入,以及师生关系的质量。优秀的中小学教师在评定学生学业成绩时,能够从学生长远发展角度考虑评价对学生的全面影响,重视评分的发展性评价目的;在具体评分实践中,能充分考虑学生对分数的认识、理解和感受,评分目的明确;能够运用多种评价方式,从多个来源对学生多个方面的表现实施多元综合评价;能够根据评分目的和条件合理恰当地选择评分标准,评分灵活可靠,又不失评价原则。这些理念和策略作法,确保了他们的评分能够真正发挥鼓励学生学习,促进学生成长的广阔而深远的目的。     

Characteristics of convection and overshooting in RGB and AGB stars

Based on the turbulent convection model (TCM) of Li & Yang, we have studied the characteristics of turbulent convection in the envelopes of 2 and 5M⊙ stars at the red giant branch and asymptotic giant branch phases. The TCM has been successfully applied over the entire convective envelopes, including the convective unstable zone and the overshooting regions. We find that the convective motions become progressively stronger when the stellar models are located farther up along the Hayashi line. In the convect...     

Radioheliograph Observations of Microwave Bursts with Zebra Structures

The so-called zebra structures in radio dynamic spectra, specifically their frequencies and frequency drifts of emission stripes, contain information on the plasma parameters in the coronal part of flare loops. This paper presents observations of zebra structures in a microwave range. Dynamic spectra were recorded by Chinese spectro-polarimeters in the frequency band close to the working frequencies of the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope. The emission sources are localized in the flare regions, and we are able to estimate the plasma parameters in the generation sites using X-ray data. The interpretation of the zebra structures in terms of existing theories is discussed. The conclusion has been arrived at that the preferred generation mechanism of zebra structures in the microwave range is the conversion of plasma waves to electromagnetic emission on the double plasma resonance surfaces distributed across a flare loop.     

日冕物质抛射及其伴生的射电辐射观测特征

统计分析了太阳活动周下降段(2003～2005年)发生的76个共生CME的射电爆发事件.射电爆发资料来自国家天文台和Culgoora的微波和米波频谱仪.在76个事件中有50个快速CME和26个慢速CME.从中发现,快速CME和慢速CME的产率分别随着太阳活动周的降低而下降和上升,这可能说明CME的产率与太阳活动周中日冕磁结构的位形和位置变化有关.同时也发现,射电爆发的类型和寿命有一个变化规律,即随着频率的降低射电爆发的寿命变长,此特征支持了伴生CME的Ⅱ型爆发统一模型的思想.另外还发现在厘米一分米波范围,CME开始前后,容易发生射电Ⅲ型爆发或快速精细结构.这说明射电辐射的精细结构可能是CME的前兆现象或CME早期发展阶段由于磁重联引发的低日冕小尺度磁扰动的结果.