包头山区流域面雨量的实现及最大洪峰流量的估计

利用T213数值预报产品建立包头市短期降雨预报方程,通过地理信息系统,在Citystar4.0版本软件的支持下,实现大青山区降水随高度的分布模式,计算出主要山区沟河的流域面雨量和降水总量,估计洪峰流量。在GIS(地理信息系统)环境下,研究山区面雨量的预报,通过建立包头市大青山区山体高度降雨量分布的经验公式,得到实现山区沟河流域面的面雨量,最终得到各个沟河流域的最大洪峰流量的估计。     

人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅱ.对东亚和中国气候变化的影响

系统总结和介绍了20世纪90年代以来作者所开展的有关人类活动对东亚和中国气候影响的一系列研究活动.其中包括温室气体辐射强迫及其气候效应,大气微量气体的全球增温潜能,对流层和平流层气溶胶的辐射气候效应,气候系统外部因子对中国气候影响的总体评估,人类活动对中国和东亚地区未来气候变化的影响,以及20世纪和21世纪东亚及中国的气候变化.同时给出了一系列研究成果,这些研究成果对于正确认识和准确预测东亚地区以及中国气候变化具有十分重要的意义.     

巴彦淖尔市水泥混凝土施工冻害指数分析

为了便于开展冬季水泥混凝土施工气象服务,选用临河和海流图（乌拉特中旗）测站近10a的气象资料分别作为河套和后山地区的气象数据．选取逐日最高气温、最低气温、定时相对湿度、最小相对湿度、降水量、定时风速,经过筛选、统计、计算,得出河套地区水泥施工适宜时段为4月上旬末至10月中旬,后n1地区水泥施工适宜时段为4月中旬末至10月上旬．这一研究结果町以提升冬季建筑施工气象服务的针对性和实用性。     

Aircraft Observations of Sea-Surface Turbulent Fluxes Near the California Coast

Aircraft turbulence data from the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network project were analyzed and compared to the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk parametrization of turbulent fluxes in an ocean area near the coast of California characterized by complex atmospheric flow. Turbulent fluxes measured at about 35 m above the sea surface using the eddy-correlation method were lower than bulk estimates under unstable and stable atmospheric stratification for all but light winds. Neutral turbulent transfer coefficients were used in this comparison because they remove the effects of mean atmospheric conditions and atmospheric stability. Spectral analysis suggested that kilometre-scale longitudinal rolls affect significantly turbulence measurements even near the sea surface, depending on sampling direction. Cross-wind sampling tended to capture all the available turbulent energy. Vertical soundings showed low boundary-layer depths and high flux divergence near the sea surface in the case of sensible heat flux but minimal flux divergence for the momentum flux. Cross-wind sampling and flux divergence were found to explain most of the observed discrepancies between the measured and bulk flux estimates. At low wind speeds the drag coefficient determined with eddy correlation and an inertial dissipation method after corrections were applied still showed high values compared to bulk estimates. This discrepancy correlated with the dominance of sea swell, which was a usually observed condition under low wind speeds. Under stable atmospheric conditions measured sensible heat fluxes, which usually have low values over the ocean, were possibly affected by measurement errors and deviated significantly from bulk estimates.     

系统优化理论在CERES－大豆模式品种参数求解中的应用

根据田间试验资料，采用多维非线性单纯形法搜索求解模式中的品种参数，比较全面地评价了ＣＥＲＥＳ－大豆模式（ＳＯＹＧＲＯＶ５．４１）对我国大豆生长过程及其产量形成的模拟效果。结果表明：（１）若仅考虑某一单项的模拟效果，如发育期或收获产量等，而不涉及其余项目，则可以调整有关参数得到相当满意的模拟结果；若考虑所有模拟输出项的模拟效果，则其精度明显下降，相对误差在１０％～６０％之间。（２）对于某些生长过程，如叶面积指数动态和地上部分于物重的增重过程等，用ＣＥＲＥＳ大豆模式模拟得到的时间趋势与实例资料有较大差别；而对籽粒增重的模拟效果较好。     

Trace Metal Solid State Speciation in Aerosols of the Northern Levantine Basin,East Mediterranean

An established three stage sequential leach scheme was applied to a series of selected high volume aerosol samples (n = 35) collected from the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Erdemli). Samples were selected according to their air mass back trajectory history to reflect the contrasting mixtures of aerosol material present in the Eastern Mediterranean marine aerosol. Two populations were adopted, those samples which were classed as “anthropogenic” and those which were “Saharan” dominated aerosol populations. Applying the three stage leach it was possible to define the proportion for each of the considered metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn and Mn) present in the (a) “exchangeable” (b) “carbonate / oxide” and (c) “refractory” phases, representing novel solid state aerosol speciation data for this marine system. Clear trends were established, conforming with data from previous studies with mainly crustal derived metals (Al and Fe) being present in the refractory phases (Al > 88%; Fe > 84%) and those influenced by anthropogenic sources being dominating in the exchangeable phase, although for these metals the variability was comparatively high (12–64%; 19–85%; 40–100% for Zn, Pb and Cd, respectively). For the majority, greater exchangeable fractions were present the lower the crustal source contribution to the aerosol population, whereas the “refractory” fraction exhibited contrasting behaviour. This was illustrated by the novel application of the mixing diagram, presenting each of the three speciation stages against the corresponding percent anthropogenic contribution to each collected sample. Zn, Pb and Cd all illustrated progressive decrease in the percent exchangeable with increasing crustal contribution to the aerosol population. The percent exchangeable was discussed in terms of its use to represent the upper limit of the bioavailable fraction of metal associated with the aerosol, post deposition. The mixing diagram approach enabled the prediction of the residual fractions for Cd, Pb and Zn (41 ± 4%; 62 ± 4% and 82 ± 5%, respectively,) in Saharan end-member material.     

青藏高原东北侧干旱的数值试验

用谱方法（Ｔ４２）求解半球球面无辐散正压涡度方程,采用实际的干旱环流资料,分别在有地形和无地形的情况下,求出其对应的干旱环流型的强迫场,模拟了在强迫场的作用下干旱环流的形成、维持情况及在强迫场消失后干旱环流型的崩溃情况。结果表明：（１）强迫场在干旱环流型的形成、维持及崩溃过程中起重要作用;（２）青藏高原的存在使其东北侧干旱形成和崩溃均加快。     

2013年初桂北寒潮天气过程分析

运用Micaps资料和地面观测实况资料,对2013年1月3-5日桂北寒潮天气过程进行了诊断分析,结果表明：（1）此次寒潮天气过程的特点是降温快、回温慢,且过程日平均气温低;（2）此次寒潮过程的冷空气堆积过程完成后,是由横槽转竖引导槽后冷空气大举南下入侵广西,造成的桂北寒潮天气;（3）中暖下冷的逆温层结维持时间与降雪冻雨时段对应较好,逆温层结被破坏后,桂北的持续雨雪天气也宣告结束,气温开始逐步回升;（4）中低层水汽辐合及较强的槽前正涡度平流也是产生降雪的必要条件之一。     

2001年台风暴雨的分析

利用常规资料、HLAFS格点资料和GMS－5静止卫星红外云图，对2001年我国台风暴雨的天气气候特征、热带低压造成的“8.5”上海特大暴雨及0103号台风“榴莲”的强暴雨形成的物理条件进行了诊断分析研究，并探讨了动力学、热力学和大气层结稳定度等物理因子在这两次强暴雨过程中的主要作用。分析结果对实时预报业务和科研工作有一定启示意义。     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.