天津市多模式气温集成预报方法

在遗传算法和粒子群算法的基础上,采用权重分配方法开展基于混合演化算法的多模式气温集成预报方法研究。利用2012年5—10月中国气象局GRAPES模式、北京市气象局BJ-RUC模式、中国气象局T639模式、天津市气象局TJWRF模式24 h预报时效的逐6 h地面2 m高度气温和35个天津区域自动气象站点资料,通过逐日滚动建立集成预报模型,对混合演化算法的多模式气温集成预报方法进行了绝对误差在2℃以内的分级、分类及分站检验分析。结果表明:使用该方法建立的气温集成预报模型具有比较可靠的预报能力,预报误差明显小于任一成员,预报准确率高。按绝对误差不大于2℃的检验标准,2012年35个站逐6 h气温、最低气温、最高气温的集成预报平均准确率分别为76.34%,77.88%,78.00%。     

复杂三维建筑物模型的线性几何编码

提出了一种适合复杂三维建筑物模型高效网络传输的线性几何编码方法.首先对建筑物模型进行体元化,构建原始模型的八叉树索引,然后依据索引结构的层间扩展模式和各模式的经验概率对其几何信息进行线性压缩编码,最后通过构建空间密度场,采用改进的MC算法对线性码流进行解码重构.实验表明,该方法不受原始模型表面拓扑连接关系的约束,能够在保持模型外观的前提下有效减少复杂三维建筑物模型网络传输的数据量和等待时间.     

一种利用动态参考网实现单频接收机精密单点定位的新方法

对历元差分电离层模型(SEID)进行了改进,给出了在地面处建模与在所假定电离层薄层处建模差异量的精确计算公式,发现了可利用多个双频动态参考站(动态参考网)进行建模这一实用特性,并以此提出了一套基于动态参考网的单频接收机精密单点定位数据处理方法。实验结果表明,即使对于电离层活跃性较强且范围为100km×100km的测区,利用3个以上双频动态参考站的观测数据,便能为测区内单频接收机用户提供平面方向精度优于5cm的动态精密单点定位服务。     

四川芦山7.0级地震卫星热红外异常解析

以中国静止气象卫星FY-2C/E亮温资料为数据源,采用功率谱相对变化法对2013年4月20日四川芦山7.0级地震进行震例数据处理和分析。结果显示:震前热异常具有明显时空特征,2013年3月底震中及其北部区域出现热红外异常,异常区范围随时间逐渐扩大、幅度陡增;4月13日左右异常面积达到最大,随后缓慢收缩,异常持续时间近一个月,异常幅度最大值达到9倍多,最大值后3天发震。该次地震热红外异常特征显著,易于识别,进一步验证了卫星热红外异常在地震预判方面的作用。     

岷县6.6级及芦山7.0级地震前天水地电阻率井下观测资料异常

2013年4月20日和7月22日先后发生了四川芦山7.0级和甘肃岷县6.6级地震。这两次地震前天水地电台地电阻率的井下观测资料都出现明显的短临异常变化,其中芦山地震前11天地电阻率NS道、EW道、N45°W道出现同步异常,表现为明显波动变化;岷县地震前约40天地电阻率三道出现异常,测值出现明显波动变化。     

几种优化方法在频率域全波形反演中的应用效果及对比分析研究

全波形反演方法是一个有效求解参数重建问题的方法,其本质是一个寻找最优解的优化问题,目前多用局部最优方法求解,如最速下降法、共轭梯度法、高斯-牛顿法、拟牛顿法等.文中给出了常用的优化方法,基于二雏声波方程,将这些方法应用于部分overthrust模型的反演,通过对各方法所得反演模型的精度和计算时间的对比分析,对各个方法的优缺点进行总结,为后续多参数反演或高维方程参数反演提供方法选择上的参考;针对所要求解的反问题,选用的优化方法需要在收敛速率、计算存储量和算法的稳定性之间进行权衡,以得到一个最优的反演结果.     

Estimation of tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields from SAR images

The traditional method of Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR)wind field retrieval is based on an empirical relation between the near surface winds and the normalized radar backscatter cross section to estimate wind speeds,where this relation is called the geophysical model function(GMF).However,the accuracy rapidly decreases due to the impact of rainfall on the measurement of SAR and the saturation of backscattered intensity under the condition of tropical cyclone.Because of no available instrument synchronously monitoring rain rate on the satellite platform of SAR,we have to derive the precipitation of the SAR observation time from non-simultaneous passive microwave observations of rain in combination with geostationary IR images,and then use the model of rain correction to remove the impact of rain on SAR wind field measurements.For the saturation of radar backscatter cross section in high wind speed conditions,we develop an approach to estimate tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields based on the improved Holland model and the SAR image features of tropical cyclone.To retrieve the low-to-moderate wind speed,the wind direction of tropical cyclone is estimated from the SAR image using wavelet analysis.And then the maximum wind speed and the central pressure of tropical cyclone are calculated by a least square minimization of the difference between the improved Holland model and the low-to-moderate wind speed retrieved from SAR.In addition,wind fields are estimated from the improved Holland model using the above-mentioned parameters of tropical cyclone as input.To evaluate the accuracy of our approach,the SAR images of typhoon Aere,typhoon Khanun,and hurricane Ophelia are used to estimate tropical cyclone parameters and wind fields,which are compared with the best track data and reanalyzed wind fields of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)and the Hurricane Research Division(HRD).The results indicate that the tropical cyclone center,maximum wind speed,and central pressure are generally consistent with the best track data,and wind fields agree well with reanalyzed data from HRD.     

Characteristics and environmental significance of Ca, Mg, and Sr in the soil infiltrating water overlying the Furong Cave, Chongqing, China

This paper explores the influence of the local meteoric conditions,the overlying soil on the concentrations of Ca,Mg,and Sr,and the ratios of Mg/Ca,Sr/Ca,and Mg/Sr in soil infiltrating water(SIW).An in situ monitoring program was carried out above the Furong Cave throughout 2010 to collect data on SIW,monthly temperature and rainfall,and the geochemical composition and granularity of soils.The discharge of SIW responded quickly to the local rainfall,and its residence time was the primary factor affecting the Ca,Mg,and Sr content of the SIW.The high concentrations of Ca,Mg,and Sr in the SIW during April should be attributed primarily to the prolonged residence of SIW in the soil during the local dry seasons of winter and early spring.The maximum Mg/Sr ratio also occurred in April.The ratio of Mg/Ca in SIW is positively correlated with prolonged residence time and with high temperatures,which do not strongly affect the ratio of Sr/Ca.The Mg/Ca ratio was lowest when the Sr/Ca ratio was highest because plant metabolism increased the absorption of Ca and Mg,but not Sr,and also because higher temperatures enhanced the dissolution of Mg more than that of Sr.These different responses of Mg and Sr to temperature increases resulted in high Mg/Sr ratios during July and August.     

大气光学湍流模型计算方法

光学湍流的强弱和分布是描述天文台址优劣的重要参数.介绍了利用大气模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)计算高美古站周围大气光学湍流参数的方法,这些参数包括C2n(大气光学湍流强度)廓线、大气相干长度、大气相干时间、视宁度、等晕角和闪烁率等.包括模型计算方法的实现过程、模型的设置和模拟结果的验证.计算结果与云南高美古观测站DIMM (Differential Image Motion Monitor)的实测数据进行了对比.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711200031X

Upper Paleozoic coal measures in the Ordos Basin consist of dark mudstone and coal beds and are important source rocks for gas generation.Gas accumulations include coal-bed methane（CBM）, tight gas and conventional gas in different structural areas.CBM accumulations are mainly distributed in the marginal area of the Ordos Basin,and are estimated at 3.5×10¹² m³.Tight gas accumulations exist in the middle part of the Yishan Slope area,previously regarded as the basin-centered gas system and now considered as stratigraphic lithologic gas reservoirs.This paper reviews the characteristics of tight gas accumulations:poor physical properties(porosity < 8%,permeability < 0.85×10^-3μm²),abnormal pressure and the absence of well-defined gas water contacts.CBM is a self-generation and selfreservoir, while gas derived from coal measures migrates only for a short distance to accumulate in a tight reservoir and is termed near-generation and near-reservoir.Both CBM and tight gas systems require source rocks with a strong gas generation ability that extends together over wide area.However,the producing area of the two systems may be significantly different.