强地面运动数值模拟中三维物理模型的建立方法——以昆明盆地为例

基于活动断层的地震危害性综合评价可为城市规划和工程建设提供科学依据, 强地面运动数值模拟则是进行地震危害性预测和评价的重要方法, 而建立以第四系为主体的符合真实地层结构的三维物理模型是保证数值模拟结果可靠性的必要条件之一. 本文以昆明盆地为例, 综合利用地震地质、钻孔、地形地貌、DEM、地震勘探、波速测试等资料,以剪切波速为主要分层指标,参考地层层序, 结合ArcGIS等多种软件和相关的编程技术,采用将相邻介质分界面（层网）在深度方向上逐层叠加的方法建立三维物理模型;详细阐述了建立三维物理模型的主要技术思路和实现过程, 同时建立三维物理模型的数据库,为强地面运动数值模拟提供模型数据和参数. 文中还针对不同类型的探测、实验数据,总结了相应的技术处理方法和需要注意的问题.      

基于Elman型神经网络的金川二矿地表岩移时序预测 模型

建立于煤矿开采基础之上的矿山开采沉陷理论和预测方法并不适用于象金川这样厚大、陡倾的金属矿床开采的岩移问题,因此,本文探讨利用神经网络来对地表岩移进行预测。根据Elman神经网络能够逼近任意非线性函数的特点和具有反映系统动态特性的能力,提出了利用Elman神经网络建立地表岩移时序预报模型的方法。利用金川二矿区GPS监测所得到的时间序列数据,通过对Elman神经网络模型预测值与GPS实测值之间的比较,结果表明模型预测显示了良好的准确性,特别是在时间步长较短情况下,应用于实际预测一定程度上可以弥补金属矿山岩移预测方法不足的缺憾。     

Statistical analysis of landslides caused by the Mw 6.9 Yushu,China, earthquake of April 14, 2010

The April 14, 2010 Yushu, China, earthquake (Mw 6.9) triggered a great number of landslides. At least 2,036 co-seismic landslides, with a total coverage area of 1.194 km², were delineated by visual interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images taken following the earthquake, and verified by field inspection. Based on the mapping results, a statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of these landslides is performed using the landslide area percentage (LAP), defined as the percentage of the area affected by the landslides, and landslide number density (LND), defined as the number of landslides per square kilometer. The purpose is to clarify how the landslides correlate the control factors, which are the elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, slope position, distance from drainages, lithology, distance from the surface rupture, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The results show that both LAP and LND have strongly positive correlations with slope angle and negative correlations with distance from the surface rupture and distance from drainages. The highest LAP and LPD values are in places of elevations from 3,800 to 4,000 m. The slopes producing landslides are mostly facing toward NE, E, and SE. The geological units of Q₄ al-pl, N, and T₃ kn ¹ have the highest concentrations of co-seismic landslides. No apparent correlations are present between LAP and LND values and PGA. On both sides of the surface rupture, the landslide distributions are almost similar except a few exceptions, likely associated with the nature of the strike-slip seismogenic fault for this event. The bivariate statistical analysis shows that, in descending order, the earthquake-triggered landslide impact factors are distance from surface rupture > slope angle > distance from drainages > lithology > PGA. Besides, as the detailed co-seismic landslides inventories related to strike-slip earthquakes are still few compared with that of thrusting-fault earthquakes, this case study would shed new light on the subject. For instance, the landslide spatial distribution on both sides of the strike-slip seismogenic fault is rather different from that of thrusting-fault earthquakes. It reminds us to take different strategies of measures for prevention and mitigation of landslides induced by earthquakes with different mechanisms.     

汶川M_s 8.0级地震强震记录所揭示的地震断层特征分析

基于2008年5月12日汶川Ms8.0级地震的强震台站记录,对比发震断层两侧的峰值加速度与地表破裂带上同震位移的分布特点,探讨了地震动强度分布特征与地表破裂位移分布之间的相关关系。分析近断层典型台站的强震动记录时程特征,获得了强地震动记录中所包含的断层破裂过程和破裂习性信息,从强震观测记录的角度进一步证实了汶川地震主震的多次破裂特征。结果表明,汶川地震主震至少包含了4次地震破裂事件,最主要的前两次破裂事件分别对应映秀—北川断裂段和北川—南坝断裂段的破裂过程,后两次破裂事件释放的能量相对较小,应该是第二次破裂过程触发局部次级破裂所引起的。此外,垂直于断层的峰值加速度剖面揭示的发震断层的高倾角逆冲特性,与地震地质调查和小震精定位等确定的相应结果是一致的。     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系

采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。     

Study on Integrated Recurrence Behaviors of Strong Earthquakes Along Entire Active Fault Zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.     

Intensive Observation of Reservoirinduced Seismicity and Preliminary Analysis on the Causes of Earthquakes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Yangtze River

In accordance with the requirements of the National Key Technology R&D Program of the 11th "Five-year Plan",a densified seismic network consisting of 26 seismic stations was established at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the section of Hubei Province in March 2009(21 short-period seismographs,5 broadband digital seismographs).From March to December,2009,a total of 2,995 ML-0.8~2.9 earthquakes were detected during the trial impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir(water level rose from 145 m to 172.8m).Using the double difference earthquake location algorithm,2,837 earthquakes were precisely re-located.The results show that the pattern of small local earthquake swarms in the Three Gorges Reservoir area took on a linear distribution or mass-like cluster distribution,the mass-like clusters of events were generally within a distance of 5 km from waterfront,and the linear distribution of the earthquakes could be extended to a distance of 16 km away from the waterfront.In the Hubei section of the Three Gorges Reservoir,earthquakes were mainly concentrated in the northern end of the Xiannvshan and Jiuwanxi faults near the Xiangxihe River,and along the banks of the Yangtze River at the west of Xietan township and the Shenlongxi area on the northern bank in the Badong region,with focal depths less than 10km,and 4km in average.Earthquake frequency in the reservoir region had a positive correlation with reservoir water level fluctuations,indicating that the seismicity belongs to reservoir induced earthquakes.Along the Shenlong River in the reservoir area,earthquakes showed three linear distributions in the northern Badong county,and distributed according to Karst distribution.There are underground rivers in the carbonate strata.When the reservoir was impounded,water permeated into the underground rivers,thus inducing earthquakes.Earthquakes in the areas on the cross-river segment of Xiannvshan fault,the Jiuwanxi fault and at the areas west of Xietan,Shazhen and Xizhen,may be related to the softening of discontinuities,such as the Nukou fault,the Xiannvshan fault,or the bedding joints,which would lead to failure of rock masses,thus,inducing earthquakes.However,convincing conclusions about the triggering mechanism still need further study.Additionally,near the areas south of Wenhua and Yanglin of Zigui county and at Rangkou town east of Badong county,mining-induced earthquakes occurred at the mines nearby,and on the shores of the reservoir are some collapse earthquakes.     

南北地震带现今应变特征及地震危险性分析

基于1999～2007期、2009～2013期及2013～2016期GPS速度场数据,利用最小二乘配置方法解算南北地震带附近区域应变率参数,对比应变率变化并分析变化原因。结合研究时段内M_W6.0以上地震的震中分布,分析应变率参数与地震分布的相关关系;再结合地震地质,分析研究区内主要断层的地震危险性。结果显示,青藏高原近期存在加速扩展特征,其东北缘存在明显的介质性质横向不均匀特征,M_W6.0以上地震与应变率的大小存在相关关系;研究区内的地震危险区分别为祁连山中段危险区、玛沁-玛曲危险区、安宁河-小江断裂系危险区及红河断裂带中南段危险区。     

甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪活动性研究

以甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段的地质地貌为研究对象,在遥感解译的基础上,通过对典型地区的详细野外调查和探槽研究对该段晚第四纪活动性进行研究。在断裂沿线的生康乡、仁果乡、错阿乡、日阿乡进行了断错地貌分析和晚第四纪滑动速率计算, 生康区的水平滑动速率为(7.6±0.5)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 仁果区的水平滑动速率为(8.0±0.3)mm/a,垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 错阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.3±0.4)mm/a; 日阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.8±0.8)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a。在仁果乡和错阿乡进行了探槽研究,两处探槽都揭示了多次古地震事件,虽然揭露的断层构造样式有所不同,但总体上都是以走滑为主兼有一定的逆冲分量。综合古地震事件和滑动速率分析表明,甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪尤其是全新世以来活动剧烈。