A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.     

稀疏植被净初级生产力时空变化及气象因素关系分析

本文探讨了2001-2018年古尔班通古特沙漠植被NPP时空格局,基于改进的CASA模型,采用空间分析、相关性分析及地理探测器模型等方法,揭示了研究区NPP气候驱动因子及其影响。结果表明:①古尔班通古特沙漠近18年植被NPP变化总体呈现波动增加趋势,增速为0.56 gC· a^-1,NPP均值为46.90 gC· m^-2· a^-1;②2001-2018年,年均NPP整体呈西低东高、北低南高的空间分布格局,但从动态上而言,基本呈现沙漠腹地较稳定、四周较活跃的格局;③古尔班通古特沙漠植被NPP主要受降水因子的影响,与降水、气温因子均呈正相关关系,从各因子驱动力分析而言,降水因子(0.614 4)为限制荒漠植被生长的主导因素。     

水文要素变异的人类活动影响研究进展

重点针对人类活动导致的水文要素变异问题从以下3个方面分析了研究进展:①综述了人类活动水文效应研究的定性和定量2类成果,分析了作为揭示人类活动的水文效应机理的综合驱动因子的研究现状,剖析了人类活动水文效应定量化研究的方法模式;②综述了水文要素时间序列变异特征及变异点位置的识别研究成果,分析了现有的统计识别方法和差异信息熵等新技术、新理论在变异点识别中的应用,简析了目前研究尚不多的水文要素空间变异性研究方法;③描述了分离气候变化和人类活动对流域水文要素影响的2类主要方法:分项调查法和水文模型法,分析了土地利用/覆被变化对水文系统作用的驱动机理模型,综述了农区下垫面变化对水文要素变异的贡献分解方法.通过综述,指出了现有人类活动水文效应、水文要素变异性识别、下垫面变化对水文要素变异的驱动机理等方面的研究不足和问题.提出了未来需要重点加强气候变化与人类活动对水文要素变异驱动机理及贡献分解研究,加强水文要素时空变异特性的诊断,重构水文要素变异环境下洪涝极值等特征量及其重现期的新概念和新定量等.     

文登市宋村镇农村土地流转探索

随着我国社会的发展和经济体制改革的不断深入,农村土地流转的方式越来越多,范围越来越广。如何在保障农户土地承包经营权的前提下,推进土地承包经营权有序流转,提高农业产业化水平是深化农村改革的一个现实课题和长远目标。该文以宋村镇农村土地承包经营权流转的调查数据为例,分析了土地流转的现状和特点,指出当前存在的矛盾和问题,提出了农村土地流转机制的对策和建议。     

马海钾矿第四纪沉积特征及盐湖演化

本文研究了马海盆地更新统一全新统含盐岩系分层沉积特征。下更新统:化学沉积中心与沉降中心一致,以石膏、石盐为主的盐层赋存于该统顶部。中更新统:盐层层数多,分布面积较下统增大。上更新统:含盐岩系范围小,盐类沉积丰富,盐矿物种类多,形成杂卤石、钾石盐为主的钾矿层。全新统:含盐率较高,有石盐相、钾石盐-光卤石相,缺失硫酸盐相。马海盐湖的演化历经湖盆形成期、湖盆封闭过渡期、湖盆封闭期、湖盆干化期四个时期。相应盐类沉积阶段为盐类聚集阶段、石盐沉积阶段、钠镁硫酸盐沉积阶段、钾镁盐沉积阶段。     

基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究

鲐鱼Scomber japonicus资源丰富,在我国近海渔业中占有重要地位。其渔场的形成受海洋环境的制约,本文确定鲐鱼运动和物理环境之间的响应关系,建立起了基于个体的东海鲐鱼生长洄游模型。结果显示,鲐鱼集群分布与捕捞生产渔场基本吻合,鲐鱼聚集主要受台湾暖流、大陆沿岸水、黑潮影响,往往集群在一定温度范围内并在冷暖交汇区温盐梯度大偏暖水一侧。在台湾暖流和沿岸水交汇的锋面附近、台湾暖流暖水舌前端、黑潮与中国大陆沿岸水形成的潮境区域均有大量的鲐鱼聚集,并形成渔场。产卵位置的变动使偏西产卵位置的鲐鱼由于受台湾暖流影响较大,鲐鱼会呈长带状大量聚集在台湾暖流和沿岸水的锋面附近,并使在台湾暖流暖水舌前端的聚集数量增多,而偏东的产卵的鲐鱼受黑潮影响较大,聚集分布范围较大,会使黑潮形成的锋面附近聚集数量增多,而使台湾暖水舌的前端的聚集量减少。正常产卵位置在生存率方面是最佳产卵位置。研究表明鲐鱼所处空间位置不同,会影响其集群的位置,用数值模型验证了物理环境会对鲐鱼的洄游和渔场的形成产生影响。     

Variations of oceanic fronts and their influence on the fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific

Two predominant currents, the warm Kuroshio Current and the cold Oyashio Current, meet in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The dynamics of physical oceanographic structures in this region, including frontal zones and meandering eddies, result in a highly productive habitat that serves as a favorable feeding ground for various commercially important species. Neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, is an important oceanic squid, which is widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean. Based on the catch data collected by Chinese squid jigging fleets and relevant environmental data, including sea surface temperature(SST) and fronts(represented by gradients of SST and thermocline) during 1998–2009, the variations of oceanic fronts and their influence on the fishing grounds of O. bartramii were evaluated, and the differences in distribution of fishing grounds of O. bartramii in 2000 and 2002 were compared by describing the differences in vertical temperature between 0–300 m. It was found that the preferred horizontal temperature gradient of SST for O. bartramii tended to be centered at 0.01–0.02°C/nm, which attracted nearly 80% of the total fishing effort, and the preferred horizontal temperature gradients at the 50 m and 105 m layers were mainly located at 0.01–0.03°C/nm, which accounted for more than 70% of the total fishing effort during August–October. The preferred vertical temperature gradient within the 0–50 m layer for O. bartramii tended to be centered at 0.15–0.25°C/m during August and September and at 0.10–0.15°C/m in October, implying that the mixed surface layer was distributed at depths of 0–50 m. It was concluded that the vertical temperature gradient was more important than the horizontal temperature gradient in playing a role in forming the fishing ground. The results improved our understanding of the spatial dynamics of the O. bartramii fishery.     

Effect of spatial and temporal scales on habitat suitability modeling: A case study of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwest pacific ocean

Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology, and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution. The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling, with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example. In this study, the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature(SST) from remote sensing during August to October of 2003–2008 were used. We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales(0.5°, 1° and 2°), four longitude scales(0.5°, 1°, 2° and 4°), and three temporal scales(week, fortnight, and month). The coefficients of variation(CV) of the weekly, biweekly and monthly suitability index(SI) were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise. This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month, and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O. bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts. We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.