黄土高原人口变化对县域经济系统脆弱性的影响研究

以黄土高原地区县域为例,利用敏感性?应对能力模型评估了黄土高原地区2000年以来县域经济脆弱性特征及其时空变化,并结合ArcGIS空间技术与灰色关联分析探究人口变化对县域经济脆弱性的影响作用。研究发现：① 2000年黄土高原县域经济脆弱性等级以低和较低脆弱性等级为主导,而2010年低脆弱度区域面积开始出现减少,中、高脆弱度区域面积显著增加,2017年低和较低脆弱性等级的区域占土地面积比例增加,中、高脆弱度区域面积下降。总体来说,2000—2017年黄土高原地区县域经济脆弱性整体呈现出“先升高再降低”的趋势。② 黄土高原县域经济脆弱性整体呈现“南高北低”的空间格局,处于高和较高水平的县区主要集中在甘肃东部部分县域和山西西部县域;中等水平的县区集中分布于甘肃省庆阳、平凉市东部县域、山西省大同、忻州市部分县域以及山西西部部分县域;省会城市所辖县区、地市周边地区的脆弱性水平最低。③ 表征人口变化的人口外流率、性别比和老年人口比重是影响黄土高原县域经济脆弱性关键因素,且不同时期人口变化对经济脆弱性的影响因素存在分异。     

采用等性块段指数法确定汝州煤田牛庄井田的勘查类型

汝州煤田牛庄井田断裂构造较发育,主采煤层二1煤厚度变化大,根据经验无法准确的确定井田勘查类型。采用等性块段指数法对煤层等性块段和构造等性块段进行科学、合理的赋值,将计算得出的煤层总指数和构造总指数与勘查类型划分标准进行对比,据此得出牛庄井田构造复杂程度为复杂构造、二1煤为不稳定煤层。     

Uncertainty and variability in bivariate modeling of hydrological droughts

There are two kinds of uncertainty factors in modeling the bivariate distribution of hydrological droughts: the alteration of predefined critical ratios for pooling droughts and excluding minor droughts and the temporal variability of univariate and/or bivariate characteristics of droughts due to the impact of human activities. Daily flow data covering a period of 56 hydrological years from two gauging stations from a humid region in South China are used. The influences of alterations of threshold values of flow and critical ratios of pooling droughts and excluding minor droughts on drought properties are analyzed. Six conventional univariate models and three Archimedean copulas are employed to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought properties, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson–Darling methods are used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Cramer-von Mises method based on Rosenblatt’s transform is applied for the test of the bivariate model. The change point analysis of the copula parameter of bivariate distribution of droughts is first made. Results demonstrate that both the statistical characteristics of each drought property and their bivariate joint distributions are sensitive to the critical ratio of excluding minor droughts. A model can be selected to fit the marginal distribution for drought deficit volume or maximum deficit, but it is not determined for drought duration with the lower ratios of the pooling and excluding droughts. The statistical uncertainty of drought duration makes the modeling of bivariate joint distribution of drought duration and deficit volume or of drought duration and maximum deficit undermined. Change points significantly occurred in the period from the late 1970s to the middle 1980s for a single drought property and the copula parameter of their joint distribution due to the impact of human activities. The difference between two subseries separated by the change point is remarkable in the magnitudes of drought properties and the joint return periods. A copula function can be selected to optimally fit the bivariate distribution, provided that the critical ratios of pooling and excluding droughts are great enough such as the optimal value of 0.4 in the case study. It is valuable that the modeling and designing of the bivariate joint correlation and distribution of drought properties can be performed on the subseries separated by the change point of the copula parameter.     

Standardization of CPUE for Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) from Chinese trawl fleets in the high seas of the Southeast Pacific Ocean

The generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to the standardization of catch per unit effort (CPUE) for Chilean jack mackerel from Chinese factory trawl fishing fleets in the Southeast Pacific Ocean from 2001 to 2010 by removing the operational, environmental, spatial and temporal impacts. A total of 9 factors were selected to build the GLM and GAM, i.e., Year, Month, Vessel, La Niña and El Niño events (ELE), Latitude, Longitude, Sea surface temperature (SST), SST anomaly (SSTA), Nino3.4 index and an interaction term between Longitude and Latitude. The first 5 factors were significant components in the GLM, which in combination explained 27.34% of the total variance in nominal CPUE. In the stepwise GAM, all factors explained 30.78% of the total variance, with Month, Year and Vessel as the main factors influencing CPUE. The higher CPUE occurred during the period April to July at a SST range of 12–15°C and a SSTA range of 0.2–1.0°C. The CPUE was significantly higher in normal years compared with that in La Niña and El Niño years. The abundance of Chilean jack mackerel declined during 2001 and 2010, with an increase in 2007. This work provided the relative abundance index of Chilean jack mackerel for stock assessment by standardizing catch and effort data of Chinese trawl fisheries and examined the influence of temporal, spatial, environmental and fisheries operational factors on Chilean jack mackerel CPUE.     

Relationship between beak morphological variables and body size and mantle length of male and female Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus)

Beak of cephalopod is an important hard tissue.Understanding the morphology of beak can yield critical information on the role of cephalopods in the ecosystem.The south patagonic stock of the Argentine shortfin squid,Illex argentinus,is not only one of the most important fishing targets,but also one of the most important species in the marine eco-system of the southwest Atlantic.A total of 430 samples of I.argentinus,including 229 females 103-346mm in mantle length(ML) and 201 males 140-298mm in ML,were collected from the area off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Argentinean waters by Chinese squid jigging vessels during February to May 2007.The morphology of their beaks was evaluated.The relationships between beak morphological variables and ML differed significantly among males and females.They could be best described by logarithmic functions for females and linear functions for males except for upper wing length(UWL) and lower rostrum length(LRL),which followed exponential functions in their relationships with ML.The results showed the sexual dimorphism in the relationship between ML and beak morphology for the south patagonic stock of I.argentinus.However,no significant difference was found between males and females in the relationships of beak morphological variables(except for UWL) versus body weight(BW),suggesting that the relationship between beak morphological variables and BW can be used for estimating the biomass consumed by their predators.     

基于分布式模拟的流域水平衡分析研究——-以海河流域为例

流域水平衡分析是进行水资源科学评价与合理配置的基础,传统的流域水平衡分析大多是基于有限的站 点观测资料和简单的集总式模型,很难适应考虑水循环空间变异性的复杂大流域水资源综合管理的需求。本文基 于分布式水文模拟技术,探讨了一种能够考虑流域内部上、下游关系的水平衡分析方法。并以海河流域为例,构建 分布式SWAT 模型,对海河流域及水资源三级分区的水平衡状况进行分析,在此基础上探讨海河流域维持健康水 平衡关系,降低流域蒸发,进行农业真实节水的必要性和有关对策。     

北太平洋柔鱼不同群体耳石日增量对海洋环境的响应研究

为了研究北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)索饵场不同群体耳石日增量与环境之间的关系,采用梯度森林法和广义加性模型对2010-2016年在北太平洋采集的柔鱼进行了耳石日增量与海洋环境间的关系的分析.结果表明,柔鱼生命周期大约为1 a,秋生群体柔鱼个体的日龄范围为165～345 d,冬春生群体柔鱼...     

秋免耕对坝上地区农田风蚀及土壤理化性质的影响

秋免耕是中国北方风蚀区农田保护性耕作的主要措施,对土壤风蚀的抑制作用已得到普遍验证,但对土壤性质的影响还缺乏足够认识,是否具有保墒作用还存在争议.以地处北方农牧交错带的河北坝上地区康保县作为典型研究区,采用野外调查取样和室内实验分析手段,通过比较秋免耕地与邻近秋翻耕地风蚀前后表层土壤理化性质变化的差异,研究秋免耕对土壤...     

东南太平洋秘鲁海域光合有效辐射对茎柔鱼资源丰度和空间分布的影响研究

光合有效辐射（PAR）是海洋初级生产力的重要驱动因素之一,因此对海洋鱼类的资源丰度和空间分布产生潜在影响。本文根据2006-2015年1-12月中国鱿钓科学技术组提供的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼捕捞数据和光合有效辐射卫星遥感数据,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）表征资源丰度,以CPUE的纬度重心表征渔场空间分布,评估了东南太平洋秘鲁海域光合有效辐射对茎柔鱼资源变动的影响。结果发现,茎柔鱼渔场的产量、捕捞努力量、CPUE和PAR呈现明显的月间变化,其中CPUE和PAR月间变化规律表现为1-6月降低,7-12月增加的趋势。相关分析法表明,CPUE与PAR呈正相关关系,7月和8月相关性显著,而其余月份相关性不显著。依据频率分布法估算了各月适宜和最适PAR范围,各月最适PAR范围占渔场总面积比例与CPUE呈显著正相关关系,推测茎柔鱼资源丰度可能由各月适宜PAR面积大小决定;同时,最适PAR纬度与CPUE纬度重心呈显著正相关,说明茎柔鱼渔场的空间分布受最适PAR纬度的显著影响。此外,拉尼娜年份茎柔鱼适宜PAR面积要显著高于厄尔尼诺年份。研究表明,茎柔鱼资源丰度和空间分布受光合有效辐射的显著影响,其调控作用在不同气候条件下呈现不同的变化规律。     

南京一次特大暴雨天气过程的中尺度特征

分析了2007年7月7-8日南京特大暴雨天气过程的大尺度背景以及中尺度特征,发现中高纬阻塞形势的生消、冷暖气流的交汇、深厚的对流辐合场的形成等是强暴雨发生发展的主要因素.另外500 hPa中尺度流场汇合带、700 hPa中尺度扰动中心、雷暴云系、强雷达回波带以及强降水带走向相当一致,说明这次强暴雨过程具有明显的中尺度特征;发现500 hPa中尺度流场汇合带比卫星云图更能体现大范围的地闪分布,此发现对大范围的雷电预报有参考价值.