基于综合环境因子的协同克里金法分析茎柔鱼资源丰度空间分布

茎柔鱼是我国重要的远洋捕捞对象之一,研究其资源丰度空间分布问题,有助于更好地理解茎柔鱼的生态习性,并提高我国鱿钓渔船的生产效率。本文利用上海海洋大学鱿钓技术组提供的2003-2012年6-9月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼捕捞数据,结合海表面温度（SST）,海表面高度（SSH）,海表面盐度（SSS）和叶绿素浓度（Chl a）进行协同克里金插值预测其资源丰度的空间分布。为了解决协同克里金插值中4个环境因子的权重问题,本文将4个环境因子进行归一化处理,利用主成分分析方法将其整合为单一综合环境因子,以此作为协变量。将综合环境因子与单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）进行相关性检验后进行协同克里金插值,根据平均误差（ME）,均方根误差（RMSE）和标准化均方根（RMSSE）对插值结果评价,探讨此种方法的可行性。研究结果认为:（1）主成分分析方法获得的6-9月份的综合环境因子均与CPUE具有显著相关性;（2）6-7月份ME分别为0.002 6和0.002 5,预测准确性很高,平均预测结果稍高于实际观测值;而8-9月份的ME分别为-0.007 8和-0.000 2,预测准确性较高,平均预测结果稍低于实际观测值。6月份的RMSE估值精度最高,8月份的估值精度最低。6-7月份的RMSSE值小于1,说明都高估了预测的不确定性,8-9月份的RMSSE值大于1,说明都低估了预测的不确定性,则在6-9月份中的预测精度和准确性上会有一定程度的偏差。从ME、RMSE和RMSSE三者综合来看,6-9月的预测值具有一定的可靠性。     

Detection of spatial hot spots and variation for the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii resources in the northwest Pacific Ocean

With the increasing effects of global climate change and fishing activities,the spatial distribution of the neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) is changing in the traditional fishing ground of 150°-160°E and 38°-45°N in the northwest Pacific Ocean.This research aims to identify the spatial hot and cold spots(i.e.spatial clusters) of O.bartramii to reveal its spatial structure using commercial fishery data from2007 to 2010 collected by Chinese mainland squid-j igging fleets.A relatively strongly-clustered distribution for O.bartramii was observed using an exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) method.The results show two hot spots and one cold spot in 2007 while only one hot and one cold spots were identified each year from2008 to 2010.The hot and cold spots in 2007 occupied 8.2%and 5.6%of the study area,respectively;these percentages for hot and cold spot areas were 5.8%and 3.1%in 2008,10.2%and 2.9%in 2009,and 16.4%and 11.9%in 2010,respectively.Nearly half(45%) of the squid from 2007 to 2009 reported by Chinese fleets were caught in hot spot areas while this percentage reached its peak at 68.8%in 2010,indicating that the hot spot areas are central fishing grounds.A further change analysis shows the area centered at156°E/43.5°N was persistent as a hot spot over the whole period from 2007 to 2010.Furthermore,the hot spots were mainly identified in areas with sea surface temperature(SST) in the range of 15-20℃ around warm Kuroshio Currents as well as with the chlorophyll-a(chl-a) concentration above 0.3 mg/m~3.The outcome of this research improves our understanding of spatiotemporal hotspots and its variation for O.bartramii and is useful for sustainable exploitation,assessment,and management of this squid.     

典型国际海洋划界案例相似性研究

简要研究了2012年国际法院最新判例——尼加拉瓜诉哥伦比亚领土和海洋划界案,总结了本案中国际法院关于海上争议岛屿主权判定把握的要点,国际法院受理该案件的理由和受理的内容。国际法院用三阶段方法确立尼加拉瓜和哥伦比亚海上边界。提出了维护我国海洋权益必须研究国际最新判例相似性的建议。     

基于分形理论确定地下煤层自燃火区范围

探测地下煤层自燃火区位置与范围较为有效的方法是地面氡气测量。针对传统地面氡气测量方法存在特定条件限制、地球化学意义不明显的不足,通过分析地下煤层自燃火区地面测氡采集到的数据,分别应用传统方法和分形理论的含量-总量法、含量-周长法确定氡值的异常下限。通过比较三者确定的异常下限以及所圈定火区范围的不同,发现分形方法圈定的火区范围更加合理。      

基于外部形态特征的东南太平洋茎柔鱼种群结构研究

茎柔鱼是大洋性重要经济头足类,分布范围广泛,种群结构复杂。本文根据2008年5月～2009年10月对智利、秘鲁2个海区采集的茎柔鱼生物学样本,利用胴宽、鳍长、触腕长等11个外部形态指标与胴长之比,分析东南太平洋茎柔鱼种群结构组成及其差异,并建立相应的判别函数。研究认为,采集的渔获物样本中,初步可分为大型和小型2个种群。2个海区间大型群和小型群的外部形态特征差异显著,2个海区利用外部形态特征对种群判别正确率均在60%以上。研究认为,研究认为,外部形态特征可作为划分茎柔鱼种群结构的有效方法之一。     

基于分布式模拟的流域水平衡分析研究——以海河流域为例

流域水平衡分析是进行水资源科学评价与合理配置的基础,传统的流域水平衡分析大多是基于有限的站点观测资料和简单的集总式模型,很难适应考虑水循环空间变异性的复杂大流域水资源综合管理的需求.本文基于分布式水文模拟技术,探讨了一种能够考虑流域内部上、下游关系的水平衡分析方法.并以海河流域为例,构建分布式SWAT模型,对海河流域及水资源三级分区的水平衡状况进行分析,在此基础上探讨海河流域维持健康水平衡关系,降低流域蒸发,进行农业真实节水的必要性和有关对策.     

文登市宋村镇农村土地流转探索

随着我国社会的发展和经济体制改革的不断深入,农村土地流转的方式越来越多,范围越来越广。如何在保障农户土地承包经营权的前提下,推进土地承包经营权有序流转,提高农业产业化水平是深化农村改革的一个现实课题和长远目标。该文以宋村镇农村土地承包经营权流转的调查数据为例,分析了土地流转的现状和特点,指出当前存在的矛盾和问题,提出了农村土地流转机制的对策和建议。     

长江三角洲地区生态足迹的时空动态及其可持续发展分析(英文)

In the urbanizing world,the Yangtze Delta Region (YDR) as one of the most developed regions in China,has drawn a lot of the world’s attention for the remarkable economic development achieved in the past decades.Nevertheless,the rapid economic development was certain to be accompanied by unprecedented consumption and loss of natural resources.Therefore,the analysis of the ecological situation and driving factors of environmental impact was of great significance to serve the local sustainable development decision-making and build a harmonious society.In this paper,the ecological footprint (EF) was taken as the index of the ecological environmental impact.With the help of Geographic Information System (GIS),we studied the spatiotemporal change of ecological footprint at two scales (region and city) and assessed urban sustainable development ability in YDR.Then we discussed the driving factors that affected the change of ecological footprint by the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology (STIRPAT) model.The results showed that increasing trends of regional ecological footprint during 1998-2008 (1.70-2.53 ha/cap) were accompanied by decreasing ecological capacity (0.31-0.25 ha/cap) but expanding ecological deficit (1.39-2.28 ha/cap).The distribution pattern of ecological footprint and the degree of sustainable development varied distinctly from city to city in YDR.In 2008,the highest values of ecological footprint (3.85 ha/cap) and the lowest one of sustainable development index (SDI=1) in YDR were both presented in Shanghai.GDP per capita (A) was the most dominant driving force of EF and the classical EKC hypothesis did not exist between A and EF in 1998-2008.Consequently,increasing in ecological supply and reducing in human demand due to technological advances or other factors were one of the most effective ways to promote sustainable development in YDR.Moreover,importance should be attached to change our definition and measurement of prosperity and success.     

双频激电法在浙江省苦麻岭地区找矿勘查中的应用

浙江省常山县苦麻岭地区位于钱塘台褶皱带华埠-新登陷褶带上,具备了与成矿密切相关的条件,但地形起伏大、构造复杂、植被发育茂盛等因素严重制约着探矿效果。为此采用双频激电法,通过对称四极测深对该勘查区进行勘探。针对视电阻率测深曲线出现的跳跃、波动等异常形态,结合地层岩性、构造裂隙发育情况及视幅频率反映,对干扰因素进行排除,并依据视电阻率曲线拐点异常及增大趋势确定区内花岗岩岩体埋深及边界变化规律,指出该花岗岩顶部界面较平缓或下凹处,其围岩接触带为富集、成矿的有利部位。由视电阻率ρs和视幅频率Fs断面图推断,矿化异常等值线未封闭,异常中心位于测线以东,该结论对勘查区及类似地区扩大找矿规模具有一定指导意义。     

秦巴山集中连片特困区农户多维贫困测度与影响机理分析——以商洛市为例

中国扶贫瞄准单位已下沉到农户单元,发展和完善农户尺度的多维贫困测度方法是精准配置扶贫资源、提高扶贫效率的关键。通过借鉴“人”“地”和“业”关系理论构建了“能力—资本—环境”多维贫困综合评估框架,以秦巴山特困区商洛为例,通过多维贫困测度体系对农户进行综合测度,识别样本区多维贫困户,进而与建档立卡贫困户进行对比分析,并探讨了多维贫困发生的主要影响机理,最后依据多维贫困户剥夺维度的组合划分不同类型。研究结果表明:① 有245户被识别为多维贫困户,239户被识别为非多维贫困户,多维贫困户与非多维贫困户在能力维度、资本维度和环境维度均存在较大差异;② 有84.08%的多维贫困户与建档立卡贫困户相重叠,多维贫困户在综合维度和单维度的贫困程度均较深;③ 多维贫困发生主要受“人”的发展能力和生产能力、“业”的金融资本、物质资本以及“地”的地理条件和区位的弱势或剥夺的影响;④ 多维贫困户划分为发展缺失型、复合贫困型、生存环境恶劣型和综合贫困型4类。