1980年以来黄土高原半干旱区乡村人居环境系统脆弱性时序演变——以陕西省佳县为例

从人地系统脆弱性视角切入,遵循"演变轨迹刻画-阶段情景描绘-演化路径与机理剖析"的逻辑轴线,结合"ground-truthing"质性研究方法,探索了1980年以来以陕西省佳县为代表的黄土高原半干旱区乡村人居环境系统演变历程与路径。主要结论如下:①定量测度了1980-2016年佳县乡村人居环境综合系统及子系统脆弱度值。其中,自然系统脆弱性由干旱主导转向雨涝灾害主导;21世纪以来,居住系统脆弱性全面减轻,支撑系统脆弱性反弹加剧;近10 a,社会系统脆弱性逐渐减轻,人类系统已走向重度脆弱等级,综合脆弱性停滞于中度脆弱等级。②提出了乡村人居环境系统脆弱性情景转化阈值规则,界定了顽固脆弱、不受控制的脆弱、可控的脆弱、稳定健康、易变的系统等5类脆弱性情景。案例区脆弱性演变经历4个阶段,但徘徊于顽固脆弱的系统与不受控制的脆弱性系统情景之间。③建构了乡村人居环境系统脆弱性阶段性演化动力机制,梳理了5大子系统脆弱性阶段性演化路径,提炼了涉及气候变化、城市化扰动、市场变化、政策干预及农户行为适应等5大驱动因素的20件关键影响事件。     

东北大西洋北海渔场鱼类群落结构年际变化研究

根据2001-2015年东北大西洋北海渔场进行的国际底拖网调查渔获数据,采用生物多样性指数和多元统计分析研究该海域群落结构的年际变化,并利用格局转变贯序t检验的方法研究鱼类种群的转变规律,结合环境因素与捕捞因素分析群落结构变化的原因。结果显示:2001-2015年北海渔场共出现280种渔业资源,其中鱼类有222种,资源丰度波动较大;物种多样性整体呈上升趋势。聚类分析和非度量多维标度排序分析表明,研究期间大致分为2001-2003年、2004-2011年和2012-2015年3个阶段。大西洋鲱分别在2004年和2014年种群结构发生格局转变,格局转变指数（RSI）分别为-0.45和0.41;黑线鳕在2003年和2012年格局发生转变,RSI值分别为-0.58和-0.66;黍鲱在2014年格局发生转变,RSI值为2。通过对环境因素与捕捞因素的分析发现,北海渔场群落格局第一次发生转变主要受捕捞因素影响,第二次发生转变主要受环境因素影响。     

基于灰色系统西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型的构建

阿根廷滑柔鱼（Illex argentinus）是西南大西洋鱿钓渔业的主要作业鱼种,对资源丰度进行准确的预测可指导企业合理安排渔业生产。因此,本研究根据2000-2016年我国西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的生产数据,以单位捕捞努力量的渔获量（Catch per unit effort, CPUE）为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的指标,利用灰色绝对关联分析和灰色预测建模的方法（GM（0, N））,计算2001-2015年CPUE的时间序列值与产卵期（6-8月）产卵场海表面温度（Sea surface temperature, SST）时间序列值的灰色绝对关联度,选取产卵场海域中灰色绝对关联度大于0.90的海区SST建立资源丰度预测模型,并用2016年实际CPUE进行验证。灰色绝对关联分析表明,6-8月,30°~40°S,45°~60°W海域内存在若干海区的SST与次年对数CPUE时间序列呈现较强的关联度,可作为预报因子。GM（0, N）模型结果表明,以6-8月产卵场SST作为环境因子建立的模型4能较好地拟合出阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度变动趋势,与2016年真实值相比,相对误差为7%,该模型可较好地作为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型。相反,包含6月和7月SST的模型1效果优于不包含6月SST的模型2或不包含7月SST的模型3,拟合得到的2016年的数据与真实值相比,相对误差分别为128%和289%,这说明6月和7月是西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的主要产卵月份。     

Impacts of El Ni?o on the somatic condition of Humboldt squid based on the beak morphology

The Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas has a short life span,and environmental variability plays a significant role in regulating its population dynamics and distribution.An analysis of 1 096 samples of D.gigas collected by the Chinese commercial fishing vessels during 2013,2014,and 2016 off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zone,was conducted to evaluate the impacts of El Ni?o events on the somatic condition of D.gigas.This study indicates that the slopes of all beak variables in relation to mantle length(ML)for females were greater than those of males during 2013,2014,and 2016,and slopes of the upper crest length and the lower ro strum length significantly differed between females and males in 2013(P0.05).Variation in the slopes for beak variables among years was studied;no significant difference was observed(ANCOVA,P0.05).The Fulton's condition coefficients(K)of females and males in 2013 and 2014 were significantly greater than tho se in 2016(P0.01).01).The K values of females were greater than tho se of males in 201 3,2014,and 2016,and K values significantly differed between females and males in 201 3.In normal years,the chlorophyll a(Chl a)concentration showed an N-shaped variability from January to December.However,in the El Ni?o period,it tended to weaken the upwelling coupled with warm and low Chl a concentration waters.We suggest that the poor somatic condition of D.gigas during the El Ni?o year was resulted from the low Chl a concentration in the waters,and the abundance of D.gigas would decrease due to the unfavourable environment and the lack of prey items in the El Ni?o year.     

The impact of spatial scale on local Moran’s I clustering of annual fishing effort for Dosidicus gigas offshore Peru

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The spatial scale (fishing grid) of fisheries research affects the observed spatial patterns of fisheries resources such as catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and...     

High Individual Variability in Beak Stable Isotopes of Jumbo Squid off Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ) Waters in the Analysis of Migratory and Foraging Ecology

Stable isotopes(δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) have been widely used to track cephalopod habitat, migration and trophic structure. In this study, we analyzed the δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values in 245 Dosidicus gigas beaks collected during 2009–2010 and in 2013 off Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ) waters. High individual variation in beak stable isotopes was shown with values ranging from-19.4‰ to-15.8‰ for δ¹³C and from 5.0‰ to 15.1‰ for δ¹⁵N. A generalized additive model(GAM) showed that latitude, mantle length and distance to shelf break significantly described the isotope variation with deviance ranging from 16.6% in δ¹³C to 36.3% in δ¹⁵N. Large variability in beak δ¹³C values for a given size and sampling station indicated that D. gigas off the Peruvian EEZ waters migrate in different ways when they occupy a large range of habitats for their ontogeny. Low baseline δ¹⁵N values suggested that spatial changes in diet trophic level may be the main determinative factor in beak δ¹⁵N variation. We conclude that high variability in beak δ¹⁵N values for a given set of explanatory variables indicated that D. gigas is an opportunistic predator with highly diverse dietary habitats. This study further develops our knowledge of the life history of D. gigas in such a highly dynamic region.     

The impact of spatial scale on local Moran's I clustering of annual fishing effort for Dosidicus gigas offshore Peru

The spatial scale(?shing grid) of ?sheries research af fects the observed spatial patterns of?sheries resources such as catch-per-unit-ef fort(CPUE) and ?shing ef fort. We examined the scale impact of high value(HH) clusters of the annual ?shing ef fort for Dosidicus gigas of fshore Peru from 2009 to 2012.For a multi-scale analysis, the original commercial ?shery data were tessellated to twelve spatial scales from 6′ to 72′ with an interval of 6′. Under these spatial scales, D. gigas clusters were identi?ed using the Anselin Local Moran's I. Statistics including the number of points, mean CPUE, standard deviation(SD),skewness, kurtosis, area and centroid were calculated for these HH clusters. We found that the z-score of global Moran's I and the number of points for HH clusters follow a power law scaling relationship from2009 to 2012. The mean ef fort and its SD also follow a power law scaling relationship from 2009 to 2012.The skewness follows a linear scaling relationship in 2010 and 2011 but ?uctuates with spatial scale in2009 and 2012; kurtosis follows a logarithmic scale relationship in 2009, 2011 and 2012 but a linear scale relationship in 2010. Cluster area follows a power law scaling relationship in 2010 and 2012, a linear scaling relationship in 2009, and a quadratic scaling relationship in 2011. Based on the peaks of Moran's I indices and the multi-scale analysis, we conclude that the optimum scales are 12′ in 2009 ? 2011 and 6′ in 2012, while the coarsest allowable scales are 48′ in 2009, 2010 and 2012, and 60′ in 2011. Our research provides the best spatial scales for conducting spatial analysis of this pelagic species, and provides a better understanding of scaling behavior for the ?shing ef fort of D. gigas in the of fshore Peruvian waters.     

空间尺度对Getis-Ord Gi*获取的CPUE热点模式的影响：以西北太平洋柔鱼为例

空间尺度（渔业网格）不仅影响CPUE全局分布模式,而且影响其局部分布模式及其与海洋环境的关系。在空间多尺度下,本文研究了西北太平洋柔鱼（Ommastrephes bartramii）CPUE热点和冷点分布的尺度关系和尺度效应。将原始渔业数据重采样为从5''×5''到90''×90''的18个空间尺度,以5''的尺度间隔来识别局部聚类簇。论文系统分析了Getis-Ord Gi*热点和冷点的位置、边界、经典统计量随空间尺度的变化。具体地,分析了空间热点和冷点的最小值（Min）、均值（Mean）,最大值（Max）、标准差（SD）、变异系数（CV）、偏度、峰度、第一四分位数（Q1）、中位数、第三四分位数（Q3）、面积和质心等统计量的空间尺度影响。在空间尺度影响分析中,主要考虑线性、对数、指数、幂律和多项式等尺度研究中的常见关系。对于热点和冷点,最大值、标准偏差和峰度具有显著的空间尺度关系,其余统计量一部分在热冷点间存在尺度影响的差异,而另一部分没有明确的尺度关系。研究结果表明,由于不同尺度的热点和冷点的边界和位置与原始尺度的边界和位置明显不同,不建议采用大于30''的网格来分析柔鱼资源的局部空间模式。     

Response of winter cohort abundance of Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus to the ENSO events

The Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus is an economically important species with one year lifespan,which is significantly influenced by climatic and environmental variability. According to the fishery data of the winter cohort of T. pacificus from 2003 to 2012, as well as environmental data and the Oceanic Ni?o index(ONI,which was defined by the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly in the Ni?o 3.4 region), variations in the SST,chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration, suitable spawning area(SSA) and sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) on the spawning ground of T. pacificus were examined under the El Ni?o and La Ni?a conditions. Their influences on squid abundance(defined by catch per unit effort, CPUE) were further assessed. The results showed that seasonal changes were found in SST, Chl a and SSA on the spawning ground of T. pacificus. Correlation analysis suggested that annual CPUE was significantly positively correlated with Chl a and SSA(p0.05), but had insignificant relationship with SST(p0.05). Moreover, the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events tended to dominate the changes of SSA and Chl a concentration in the key area between 25°–29°N and 122.5°–130.5°E, driving the variability of squid abundance. However, this influence varied with the intensity of each anomalous climatic event: the weak El Ni?o event occurred, the spawning ground was occupied by waters with enlarged SSA but with extremely low Chl a concentration, leading to low squid recruitment, the CPUE then decreased; the moderate intensity of El Ni?o event resulted in shrunk SSA but with high Chl a concentration on the spawning ground, the squid recruitment and CPUE increased; the moderate intensity of La Ni?a events yielded elevated SSA and high Chl a concentration on the spawning ground, the squid recruitment and CPUE dramatically increased. Our findings suggested that the ENSO events played crucial effects on the incubating and feeding conditions of the winter cohort of T. pacificus during the spawning season and ultimately affected its abundance.     

Age and growth of chub mackerel (Xcomber japonicus) in the East China and Yellow Seas using sectioned otolith samples

Although chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is a primary pelagic fish species, we have only limited knowledge on its key life history processes. The present work studied the age and growth of chub mackerel in the East China and Yellow Seas. Age was determined by interpreting and counting growth rings on the sagitta otoliths of 252 adult fish caught by the Chinese commercial purse seine fleet during the period from November 2006 to January 2007 and 150 juveniles from bottom trawl surveys on the spawning ground in May 2006. The difference between the assumed birth date of 1st April and date of capture was used to adjust the age determined from counting the number of complete translucent rings. The parameters of three commonly used growth models, the von Bertalanffy, Logistic and Gompertz models, were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the von Bertalanffy growth model was found to be the most appropriate model. The size-at-age and size-at-maturity values were also found to decrease greatly compared with the results achieved in the 1950s, which was caused by heavy exploitation over the last few decades.