SVD迭代模型在夏季降水预测中的应用

文中设计了一种基于SVD迭代的短期气候预测模型,通过选择适当的影响因子,建立与预测对象之间的联系,从而实现对气象场序列的预测。分别对华北16个测站和长江中下游地区30个测站1991—2000年近10a夏季(6—8月)降水做预测试验,平均均方误差分别为0.352和0.312,平均符号相关系数分别为0.575和0.623。此研究表明,基于SVD迭代的气候预测模型是一种非常有效的短期气候预测途径,具有很强的应用价值。     

Decreasing Reference Evapotranspiration in a Warming Climate—A Case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Catchment During 1970–2000

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970–2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

The Impact Cooling of the Storm-Induced SST on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature （SST） cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie （1998）. Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.     

桃仙机场雷雨转雨夹雪天气的分析

通过对桃仙机场仅有的两次雷雨转雨夹雪天气过程的分析，总结出此类天气的形势特点，并初步得出此类天气预报的着眼点，为秋季飞行提供可靠的预报保障。     

非线性粘滞阻尼器消能结构设计方法探讨

在建立非线形粘滞阻尼器消能结构性能曲线的基础上，建议了依据减震性能目标确定阻尼器参数的概略设计方法。提出了多自由度非线性粘滞阻尼器消能结构的等效阻尼比计算公式。在此基础上建议了适用于多自由度非线性粘滞阻尼器消能结构地震反应预测的模态叠加法，方法与时程分析结果对比吻合良好。为使各层阻尼器参数更好地满足减震性能要求，提出了将概略设计得到的层阻尼器参数依据减振性能目标进行调整的方法。     

地市局网络资源共享安全设置

介绍了福建省龙岩市气象局计算机网络的数据安全保护系统。该系统通过3层交换机的VLAN（Virtual Local Area Network，虚拟局域网）、防火墙、内部管理等，在实现多接入网之间资源共享的同时，实现多接入网之间的安全防护，保护共享数据的安全。     

青海省煤系多矿产生态地质勘查模式及实践

通过对相关资料和前人研究的整理、分析,从概念内涵、理论框架、生态环境保护与修复、关键环节等方面进一步深化对生态地质勘查的认识。在青海省高原高寒整体自然地理、气候背景下,结合煤盆地地质、生态地质环境敏感问题、勘查开发活动强度等因素,梳理、分类、总结了青海省典型的生态地质环境特征,并由此提出四种典型生态地质勘查模式。最终,基于生态地质勘查视角的传统地质勘查技术方法的实践应用,在经费高效利用、工作效能提高、生态地质环境扰动降低、地质成果最大化等方面取得了显著成效。     

遥感技术在西北生态脆弱区生态地质勘查中的应用研究

生态地质勘查正在成为煤炭地质勘查工作的主要发展方向。遥感技术作为“非接触式”勘查技术,在生态地质勘查中应有一席之地。通过阐述遥感技术在煤炭、天然气水合物、油页岩等资源勘查中的工作程序及勘查实例,认为在西北生态脆弱区资源勘查领域遥感技术具有独特的优势:通过不同比例尺的遥感煤田地质填图,可快速高效圈定含煤远景区;利用遥感图像的热红外波段数据可以快速获取与水合物相关的温度异常信息,圈定热异常分布区,为天然气水合物进一步勘探指明方向;通过对遥感图像的处理可直接提取与油页岩相关的成矿异常信息,圈定找矿远景区。在西北生态脆弱区应用遥感技术进行资源勘查具有好的经济效益和生态效益。     

滇西北香格里拉市红牛—红山铜矿勘查系统模型

滇西北红牛—红山铜矿床是义敦—沙鲁里岛弧上与晚白垩纪中酸性侵入体有关的典型的斑岩-矽卡岩-热液型铜矿床。本文通过对其成矿地质背景、矿床地质特征、矿化富集规律及成矿模式、矿床地球物理和地球化学特征的综合研究，建立了红牛—红山铜矿床的"大比例尺地质填图和综合研究+重力+激电和高精度磁测+土壤化探测+工程验证"组合勘查技术方法、"燕山晚期石英二长斑岩+接触带矽卡岩和层间破碎带矽卡岩+重力低异常+高磁异常+高视极化率和低视电阻率异常+Cu-Mo-Pb-Zn-Ag-Au等元素综合异常"组合勘查模型。地质调查研究确定矿床成矿地质体和找矿地质体、矿化类型及其空间分布规律，建立矿床"四位一体"的成矿模式和区域-矿区地质找矿模型。区域中小比例尺的土壤化探测量确定区域找矿靶区，大比例尺土壤化探测量进一步缩小找矿靶区，逼近矿体赋存部位。矿区处于1∶5万土壤测量圈定的Cu-Pb-Zn-Mo-Au-Ag元素综合高异常区，1∶2.5万土壤测量圈出Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag-W元素综合异常面积较大、强度高、浓集中心明显、元素套合好，与矿区铜（铁）矿体赋存区域异常相对应。区域重力低异常区和正磁异常强度高区域是重要的找矿靶区，矿区大比例尺磁异常和激电异常区确定了矿体的空间位置和产状；矿区铜（铁）矿体赋存区为低视电阻率、高视极化率异常区，高精度磁测表现为正负磁异常相伴。矿区地质-地球化学-地球物理综合勘查模型对矿区深边部找矿起到重要的指导作用。