灰色系统理论在地下水水质预报中的应用

本文论述了“灰色系统”理论,模型建立步骤以及计算、检验、精度分析方法,并用郑州市地下水中氯离子浓度随时间变化作为实例进行了具体的预报。     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Rainfall over Oman and its teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Sultanate of Oman is located in the south-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula and covers the larger part of the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments except for the southern part which is swept by the monsoon affecting the Arabian Sea during the period from June to September. The summer rainfall over Oman shows year-to-year variability, and this is caused by oceanic and atmospheric influences. In the present study, we tried to explore the influence of El Niño on the rainfall over Oman using different data sets. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique employed to the zonal wind at 850 hPa for the 30-year period shows that the second and third modes of EOF are showing high variability over the Oman regions. The corresponding PCs were subjected to FFT analysis, and it showed a peak about 5–6 years. In addition to this, the zonal wind over the Oman regions is correlated with the global zonal wind and found a significant correlation (1 % significant level). It has already been proved that the wind and rainfall during summer monsoon is in phase. Moreover, the spectral analysis of rainfall at Masirah station and the Niño3.4 index show the similar mode of variability indicating a direct relationship. The correlation between rainfall and the Niño3.4 index is also showing a positive significant value, and therefore, it can be concluded that the El Niño in the Pacific favours rainfall over the Oman region.     

Anomalous optical variations in the grossular garnet from the Eden Mills,Belvidere Mountain (Vermont,USA)

The optical anomalies, and surface and lamellar textures of a birefringent grossular garnet crystal from the Eden Mills, Belvidere Mountain, Vermont, USA, have been investigated by optical polarizing microscope, electron-probe micro-analyzer, back-scattered electron imaging, infrared spectroscopy, and single-crystal X-ray diffractometer from the standpoint of crystal growth. This grossular shows one-to-one correlation between natural surface features and its internal textures under crossed polarizers. Electron-probe micro-analyzer (EPMA) gave average chemical composition in (110) thin section, of bright lamella {Ca_2.97Mn_0.06}_∑3.03 [Al_1.59Fe_0.37Ti_0.01]_∑1.97(Si_3.00)_∑3.00 (Gros_79.5And_18.9Sps_1.6) and of dark host {Ca_2.99Mn _0.06}_∑3.05 [Al_1.73Fe_0.26 Ti_0.01]_∑2.00(Si_2.97OH_0.03)_∑3.00 (Gros_85.4And₁₃Sps_1.6). The correspondence of surface features and the internal textures with spiral or pyramidal growth mechanism suggest that the internal textures of the Eden Mills grossular are formed during growth process. The optical vibrational orientations and the growth steps inclination along [001] and \( \left[\overset{-}{1}10\right] \) directions predict monoclinic symmetry. With X-ray diffractometer (XRD) method, pseudocubic parameters are a = 11.839(2) Å, b = 11.855(1) Å, and c = 11.868(2) Å with interaxial angles α = 90.00(1)°, β = 89.99(1)°, and γ = 90.02(2)° that show orthorhombic symmetry of this crystal. Lamellar texture of Al³⁺-rich host with Fe³⁺-rich lamella infers cation ordering at octahedral site of the garnet structure. IR data favors the non-cubic orientation of [(OH) ₄] at tetrahedral position in this grossular structure.     

Benthic Carbon Mineralization and Nutrient Turnover in a Scottish Sea Loch: An Integrative In Situ Study

Based on in situ microprofiles, chamber incubations and eddy covariance measurements, we investigated the benthic carbon mineralization and nutrient regeneration in a ~65-m-deep sedimentation basin of Loch Etive, UK. The sediment hosted a considerable amount of infauna that was dominated by the brittle star A. filiformis. The numerous burrows were intensively irrigated enhancing the benthic in situ O₂ uptake by ~50 %, and inducing highly variable redox conditions and O₂ distribution in the surface sediment as also documented by complementary laboratory-based planar optode measurements. The average benthic O₂ exchange as derived by chamber incubations and the eddy covariance approach were similar (14.9 ± 2.5 and 13.1 ± 9.0 mmol m^?2 day^?1) providing confidence in the two measuring approaches. Moreover, the non-invasive eddy approach revealed a flow-dependent benthic O₂ flux that was partly ascribed to enhanced ventilation of infauna burrows during periods of elevated flow rates. The ratio in exchange rates of ΣCO₂ and O₂ was close to unity, confirming that the O₂ uptake was a good proxy for the benthic carbon mineralization in this setting. The infauna activity resulted in highly dynamic redox conditions that presumably facilitated an efficient degradation of both terrestrial and marine-derived organic material. The complex O₂ dynamics of the burrow environment also concurrently stimulated nitrification and coupled denitrification rates making the sediment an efficient sink for bioavailable nitrogen. Furthermore, bioturbation mediated a high efflux of dissolved phosphorus and silicate. The study documents a high spatial and temporal variation in benthic solute exchange with important implications for benthic turnover of organic carbon and nutrients. However, more long-term in situ investigations with like approaches are required to fully understand how environmental events and spatio-temporal variations interrelate to the overall biogeochemical functioning of coastal sediments.     

西秦岭温泉斑岩型钼矿床地质特征及成因浅析

温泉钼矿位于甘肃省武山县温泉乡陈家大湾,大地构造位置属北秦岭加里东褶皱带西段,是2000年后发现并正在勘查的斑岩型钼矿床.含矿的温泉岩体为中浅成侵入杂岩体,从海西期到燕山期有四期10次侵入.主体相为印支期侵入的似斑状黑云母二长花岗岩,燕山期早期的花岗斑岩穿插于主体相中,花岗斑岩与矿化密切相关,矿(化)体产出于燕山期花岗斑岩和附近的围岩中.地袁矿化呈脉状零星分散、不连续,品位低.共圈出矿(化)体40条,在地表下20～50m深处矿化连成一体,构成面型矿化.已经控制矿体范围近0.3km2,南北长近800m,东西实际控制宽400m,控制厚度最大445m,最小37m.钼矿体主要由充填于各向原生节理、裂隙中的相互平行或网状含钼石英细脉组成,矿石矿物组合简单,围岩蚀变较弱.成矿物质来源于岩浆,成矿流体主要来源于岩浆混入了大气降水和地下水,Re-Os同位素模式年龄214±7.1Ma,属斑岩型钼矿床.     

Suitability analysis for sand and gravel extraction site location in the context of a sustainable development in the surroundings of Zaragoza (Spain)

Zaragoza city is located in the central Ebro Basin, in the Iberian Peninsula. The fluvial terraces formed by the Ebro River present a valuable resource of sand and gravel deposits. However, taking advantage of these available resources implies conflicts with other land use interests like urban and industrial development as well as agricultural use, which has also traditionally occupied the alluvial terraces. These deposits represent a substantial groundwater resource that should be preserved for future generations. The development of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) has greatly assisted efforts for solving land-use conflicts. These systems combine the benefits of geographic information systems (GIS) and decision support methodologies and are therefore suitable to manage sustainable development of urban areas. In this contribution, an extraction suitability map taking into consideration a variety of environmental criteria is created with the help of a SDSS. The method used is the analytical hierarchy process which is integrated in ArcGIS. Areas most suitable to sand and gravel extraction are located in the high terraces, and in those terraces covered by pediments where the thickness of resource is relatively high. These areas are far from valuable natural areas, outside areas most vulnerable to groundwater contamination, and beneath soils with poor irrigation characteristics.     

Identifying low-temperature hydrothermal karst and palaeowaters using stable isotopes: a case study from an alpine cave,Entrische Kirche,Austria

The area south of the prominent east–west trending Salzach Valley at the northern rim of the Central Alps of Austria has long been known to host anomalously warm springs emerging from a highly deformed calcite marble (Klammkalk). This unit also hosts cavities whose shapes suggest a hydrothermal karst origin and which are lined by calcite spar. We report here petrographic and isotopic evidence suggesting that dissolution by ascending low-temperature thermal waters also played an important role in the origin of a large cave in this region, Entrische Kirche. A paleo cave wall, preserved behind a thick flowstone in the interior of this cave, revealed a brownish bleaching zone which contrasts to the medium grey colour of the unaltered marble beneath. Across this zone the C and O isotope values gradually decrease by 3 and 11‰, respectively. These compositions are very different from those of the speleothem above but are similar to phreatic calcite spar from hydrothermal karst cavities in other outcrops in the area, where the absence of two-phase fluid inclusions suggests a low-temperature (less than ca. 50°C) hydrothermal origin. U/Th dating of the flowstone capping the alteration zone yielded a minimum age of the thermal water invasion in Entrische Kirche of ca. 240 kyr. There is no evidence in Entrische Kirche that these palaeowaters reached the point of calcite precipitation, but it is physically conceivable that higher and as yet unexplored parts of this deep (ca. 900 m) cave contain cavities lined by phreatic cave spar.     

Seasonal variation in nature and chemical compositions of spring water in Cuihua Mountain,Shaanxi Province,central China

Two springs (Cuihua Spring, Shuiqiuchi Spring) in Cuihua Mountain of the Qinling Mountains were observed and sampled monthly during 2004 and 2005 to trace their physical properties and chemical compositions with seasons. Although both pH values and cation (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺) contents of Cuihua Spring are higher than those of Shuiqiuchi Spring, seasonal variations in both springs are obvious. The pH values of both spring waters are between 5.69 and 6.98, lower than that of rainwater during summer and autumn. From January to November, the pH values of both springs similarly vary from high to low and then to high again. Variations in electric conductivities of two spring waters are contrary, although their electric conductivities are positively correlative with the cation content respectively. This can be attributed to different water sources of the two springs or different acidic rocks they passed. The contents of HCO₃ ⁻, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, and Na⁺ are low, indicating a low silicate weathering that the strata in this district are mainly composed of granite and schist of quartz and mica. Differing from change in spring water in karst regions of South China where abundant precipitation and dilution of rainwater cause low pH and electric conductivity in summer and autumn, the seasonal variations in the pH values and the electric conductivities of two springs in Qinling Mountains are attributed to seasonal changes in CO₂ produced by microorganisms’ activity in soil within respective year, rather than rainfall. The microorganisms’ activity in soil produces more CO₂ during summer and autumn. Therefore, the water nature of springs in silicate regions chiefly reflects the seasonal changes of CO₂ produced by the microorganisms in soil.     

Measuring Subcompositional Incoherence

Subcompositional coherence is a fundamental property of Aitchison’s approach to compositional data analysis and is the principal justification for using ratios of components. We maintain, however, that lack of subcompositional coherence (i.e., incoherence) can be measured in an attempt to evaluate whether any given technique is close enough, for all practical purposes, to being subcompositionally coherent. This opens up the field to alternative methods that might be better suited to cope with problems such as data zeros and outliers while being only slightly incoherent. The measure that we propose is based on the distance measure between components. We show that the two-part subcompositions, which appear to be the most sensitive to subcompositional incoherence, can be used to establish a distance matrix that can be directly compared with the pairwise distances in the full composition. The closeness of these two matrices can be quantified using a stress measure that is common in multidimensional scaling, providing a measure of subcompositional incoherence. The approach is illustrated using power-transformed correspondence analysis, which has already been shown to converge to log-ratio analysis as the power transform tends to zero.