数字地球与海洋科学的发展

本文从数字地球的概念出发，根据海洋科学的发展要求，详细论述了数字地球与海洋科学的发展关键。并提出了海洋科学的新的发展战略和配套技术的开发研究理论，从而为我国海洋事业的发展和数字地球的建立有一个协调和统一的认识观点。     

陕西省洛南县莲花沟岩体LA-ICP MS锆石U-Pb年龄及地质意义

在西起陕西省的金堆城地区,东至河南省栾川南泥湖-三道庄-上房沟、嵩县雷门沟地区的华北地台南缘的东秦岭钼矿带上产出的南泥湖、三道庄、上房沟等一系列钼矿床,均与燕山期中酸性小岩体成矿关系密切,并且成岩成矿年龄集中在110~160 Ma.同样位于该钼矿带上的洛南县莲花沟岩体,其侵位特点与岩石化学特征非常相似.笔者从陕西省洛南县莲花沟岩体地质背景人手,通过LA-ICP-Ms锆石U-Pb定年,获得莲花沟岩体年龄为(147.7±2.0)Ma.恰处于东秦岭钼主成岩成矿年龄范围,这对进一步指导该区的找矿工作,具有重要地质意义.     

诊断台风异常路径的三层权重控制点方案

本方案采用850、700、500hPa三个层次的环境平均流场作控制点法。综合考虑这些层次上的引导气流在不同时、空域中的相对重要性。试验结果表明,其效果比单一取某层作引导为佳。且对用来预测台风的未来24小时路径是否异常具有一定的参考价值。     

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi province under climate change

Extreme climate index is one of the useful tools to monitor and detect climate change. The primary objective of this study is to provide a more comprehensively the changes in extreme precipitation between the periods of 1954–1983 and 1984–2013 in Shaanxi province under climate change, which will hopefully provide a scientific understanding of the precipitation-related natural hazards such as flood and drought. Daily precipitation from 34 surface meteorological stations were used to calculated 13 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) generated by the joint World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (CCI)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) expect Team on climate change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Two periods including 1954–1983 and 1984–2013 were selected and five types of precipitation days (R10mm-R100mm) were defined, to provide more evidences of climate change impacts on the extreme precipitation events, and specially, to investigate the changes in different types of precipitation days. The EPIs were generated using RClimRex software, and the trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Sen’s slope estimator. The relationships between the EPIs and the impacts of climate anomalies on typical EPIs were investigated using correlation and composite analysis. The mainly results include: 1) Thirteen EPIs, except consecutive dry day (CDD), were positive trends dominated for the period of 1984–2013, but the trends were not obvious for the period of 1954–1983. Most of the trends were not statistically significant at 5 % significance level. 2) The spatial distributions of stations that exhibited positive and negative trends were scattered. However, the stations that had negative trends mainly distributed in the north of Shaanxi province, and the stations that had positive trends mainly located in the south. 3) The percentage of stations that had positive trends had increased from the period of 1954–1983 to 1984–2013 for all the 13 EPIs except CDD, indicating the possible climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events. 4) The correlations between annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and other 12 EPIs varied for different indices and stations. The composite analysis found that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerted greater impacts on PRCPTOT than other EPIs and greater in the Guanzhong Plain (GZP) than Qinling-Dabashan Mountains (QDM) and Shanbei Plateau (SBP) of Shaanxi province.     

白龙江中上游地区金矿控矿因素及成矿模式探讨

白龙江中上游地区微细浸染型金矿,是受地层和构造双重控制的金矿床。在阐述矿床空间分布规律、控矿因素、区域矿化和地球化学特征等基础上,初步建立了地质地球化学成矿模式。     

潮沟系统水沙输运研究——以长江口崇明东滩为例

本研究以崇明东滩2015年4月实测潮间带水沙数据为基础,分析了潮沟、盐沼及光滩的水沙特征,重点研究了潮沟系统及邻近潮滩潮周期内悬沙通量情况。结果表明:（1）潮沟表层沉积物比潮滩细,二者平均中值粒径分别为21.7 μm和33.0 μm,悬沙粒径由海向陆逐渐变小;（2）大、小潮沟潮周期内潮流均以往复流为主,垂向平均流速分别为15.4 cm/s和34.6 cm/s;盐沼界和光滩则以旋转流为主,平均流速分别为11.3 cm/s和28.9 cm/s;（3）潮沟中的高悬沙浓度出现在涨潮初期,最大可达7.5 kg/m3,而潮滩高悬沙浓度则出现在潮落潮中期和高水位时刻;大、小潮沟和盐沼界站涨潮阶段平均悬沙浓度大于落潮阶段,光滩站则相反。潮沟悬沙主要来自邻近水域,而潮滩悬沙则与滩面表层沉积物密切相关;（4）潮沟在潮周期内净输沙方向均指向滩地,大潮沟潮周期单宽净输沙量可达4.0 t/m;盐沼界处垂直岸线和沿岸输沙强度相近,净输沙由海向陆,潮周期离岸输沙强度为1.0 t/m;光滩沿岸输沙强度远大于垂直岸线输沙,光滩净输沙由陆向海。研究揭示了潮间带潮沟系统的强供沙能力以及研究区域光滩冲蚀,盐沼植被带淤积的动力地貌过程。     

Simulation of site-scale water fluxes in desert and natural oasis ecosystems of the arid region in Northwest China

The study of water fluxes is important to better understand hydrological cycles in arid regions. Data-driven machine learning models have been recently applied to water flux simulation. Previous studies have built site-scale simulation models of water fluxes for individual sites separately, requiring a large amount of data from each site and significant computation time. For arid areas, there is no consensus as to the optimal model and variable selection method to simulate water fluxes. Using data from seven flux observation sites in the arid region of Northwest China, this study compared the performance of random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in simulating water fluxes. Additionally, the study investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in water fluxes and the dominant drivers of this variation at different sites. A universal simulation model for water flux was built using the RF approach and key variables as determined by MLR, incorporating data from all sites. Model performance of the SVM algorithm (R² = 0.25–0.90) was slightly worse than that of the RF algorithm (R² = 0.41–0.91); the BPNN algorithm performed poorly in most cases (R² = 0.15–0.88). Similarly, the MLR results were limited and unreliable (R² = 0.00–0.66). Using the universal RF model, annual water fluxes were found to be much higher than the precipitation received at each site, and natural oases showed higher fluxes than desert ecosystems. Water fluxes were highest during the growing season (May–September) and lowest during the non-growing season (October–April). Furthermore, the dominant drivers of water flux variation were various among different sites, but the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture and soil temperature were important at most sites. This study provides useful insights for simulating water fluxes in desert and oasis ecosystems, understanding patterns of variation and the underlying mechanisms. Besides, these results can make a contribution as the decision-making basis to the water management in desert and oasis ecosystems.     

基于参与式调查与主成分分析的金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析

内陆河流域绿洲变化驱动机制是旱区绿洲学研究的核心内容之一。利用1963~2010年的Keyhole存档相片、KATE-200卫星航片、Landsat遥感影像等多源数据,获取了金塔绿洲空间分布及面积变化信息。在此基础上,结合参与式调查和主成分分析方法定量分析绿洲变化的驱动机制。研究表明：近47 a来金塔绿洲总体呈现增长的趋势,绿洲规模不断扩大,至2010年绿洲面积高达539.47 km²。其主要原因是气候变化、人口增加、水资源的开发利用与科技进步、社会经济发展及政策等因子的相互交织作用。气候变化是背景因子,人文因子是绿洲变化的主成分因素,且在不同历史社会背景下,其主导人文因素也不同。     

四川盆地喜马拉雅期张扭性断裂构造特征及形成机制

前人对四川盆地盆缘冲断带及川中高-磨地区断裂系统进行了系统性研究,但对于盆地其他区块断裂发育特征、形成演化及应力背景的认识尚不充分.发现了梓潼-成都-威远-华蓥山-广安地区震旦系-下三叠统地层中发育的一套区域性张扭性断裂,主要自震旦系及以下地层向上延伸切穿二叠系地层,多为高陡、小断距正断层,部分形成负花状构造.根据该断裂系统的剖面产状、纵向穿层特征及盆地范围内体现出的分异性,推断该断裂系统形成于喜马拉雅期.物理模拟实验研究发现该断裂体系应发育于扭张性应力环境中,该断裂体系的发育指示了四川盆地内部新生代存在南西-北东向张应力,可能与四川盆地新生代发生的逆时针旋转有关.