加强埃达克岩研究，开创中国Cu、Au等找矿工作的新局面

埃达克岩与浅成低温热液Au-Ag及斑岩型Cu、Cu-Au矿床有密切的关系，环太平洋地区多数大型和世界级的斑岩铜矿均与埃达克岩有关。埃达克岩有利于成矿的关键因素与埃达克岩形成时角闪石转变为石榴石的脱水作用有关，而水能萃取出在地幔和基性岩中富集的金属元素。因此，埃达克岩集中分布的地区有利于铜、金等矿化的聚集。中国铜矿资源严重不足，解决这个紧迫问题的出路在寻找斑岩铜矿。全球铜矿主要分布在环太平洋地区，中国与环太平洋类似的地区不是中国东部，而是古亚洲洋造山带、东北吉黑东部和西藏冈底斯。从国家目标出发，建议实施铜、金等找矿工作的战略转移，把浅成低温热液和斑岩型Au、Cu、Ag等矿床找矿的重点放在古生代的古亚洲洋造山带、晚古生代-中生代的吉黑东部和中-新生代的冈底斯地区。古亚洲洋造山带首选阿尔泰西南缘-东准噶尔、东天山和内蒙古中部3个地区。埃达克岩可以作为找矿标志来使用，因此，在找矿思路上也应当有一个变化，即：先找埃达克岩，再找矿。     

工业部门污染物治理协同控制温室气体效应评价——基于重庆市的实证分析

以高能耗为主要特征的工业部门是大气污染物和温室气体的重要排放源.为推动协同管控,文中结合生态环境部在重庆市组织开展的试点工作,对工业企业NOx污染治理协同控制温室气体的效应进行了量化分析.结果表明,以末端治理为手段的NOx治理措施协同控制温室气体的效果为负,即工业企业去除1 t NOx会直接或间接增加CO2排放1.81...     

暴雨模拟中多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化的应用

针对2008年6月广东地区的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),进行了多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度,同化后的主要影响在于改进了初始动力场,使得初始场包含有更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著提高模式对广东局地暴雨过程的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,是提高中尺度降雨预报的关键。     

国家级天气预报检验分析系统建设与应用

为了适应精细化预报和业务管理的发展需求,国家气象中心建设开发了基于Web的国家级天气预报检验分析系统。系统分为预报检验、检验文件解析处理、检验数据查询分析与检验平台管理4个功能模块,关键技术包括标准化的数据管理、开放式的算法模块管理与调度和检验数据的可视化分析。系统建立了规范高效的检验业务数据流程,兼容处理预报分析制作系统（MICAPS）数据、GRIB2数据、城镇报数据、自动气象站数据等其他专业气象数据,涵盖了国家级省级智能网格预报、全国城镇天气预报、定量降水预报、大城市空气质量预报等数十项检验业务产品,给出了空间分布、柱状图及数据表格等展现形式。系统为全国各级预报员、模式开发人员和管理人员提供预报检验反馈信息,为各省以及国家级预报业务考核提供了信息支撑;同时系统提供逐旬、月、年度的智能网格预报以及城镇天气预报的检验结果对比,有力支撑了智能网格预报产品业务研发和业务试验。     

河口湾相模式研究

河口湾由一套变化亚环境组成,对其相变模式研究表明,河口湾沉积特征及岩相分布受波浪 和河流三种水动力所控制、塔里木盆地塔中４井区上泥舅统工河塘组下部发育潮控口湾沉积,由潮控河道复合体、潮坪和潮汐砂坝组成,代表海进体系域沉积、发育下切谷充填型储层。     

Epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang, NW China

The North Xinjiang region (NW China) is an important part of the Central Asia Orogenic Belt, situated at the junction of Siberia, Tarim and Kazakhstan plates. It is an area characterized by multiple stages of Phanerozoic continental growth, during which several porphyry and epithermal systems were formed. The relationship of these mineral systems to the geodynamic evolution of the region has not yet been well understood. In this paper, we list the main geological characteristics of 21 significant epithermal precious and base metal deposits in North Xinjiang, and classify them into high-sulfidation and low-sulfidation styles, with the latter being predominant. We have selected seven epithermal deposits representing different styles formed under different tectonic regimes and discuss their geology and geochemistry in some detail. The deposit-scale geology and geochemistry of epithermal systems in North Xinjiang are essentially similar to those in other parts of the world. All epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang are hosted in volcanic rocks with ages ranging from Devonian to Triassic, with the Early Carboniferous volcanic sequences being the most important, followed by the Permian and Triassic. The Devonian–Early Carboniferous host rocks belong to the calc-alkaline series that developed in pre-collisional arc-back-arc basin systems; whereas the Permian–Triassic host volcanic rocks of shoshonite series formed in post-subduction regimes. Available isotopic ages of these epithermal systems cluster in two periods: Early Carboniferous (>320?Ma) and Late Carboniferous–Triassic (320–220?Ma), reflecting two metallogenic episodes that occurred during subduction-related accretion and post-subduction collision regimes, respectively. Accordingly, three groups of epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang can be recognized as (1) pre-collisional deposits without or with negligible collisional-related modification, (2) deposits formed in collision regime and (3) ore systems strongly overprinted by fluid flow in post-subduction collision regime.     

分区上异点校正法在干旱地区1:5万地球化学异常圈定中的应用:以我国西北某地区为例

我国西北地区具有独特的干旱荒漠戈壁残山景观,风成砂、黄土硬壳以及下伏的膏岩层与岩屑层共同构成了浅层地表土壤的基本结构.以西北某干旱地区为例,针对剥蚀程度高且元素富集不明显的干旱荒漠区,提出了分区上异点校正法.该方法是一种建立在非常规统计学基础上的数据处理方法,直接通过某种规则将各个分区的上异点调整到统一水平上,使得每个...     

Cloud Variations under Subtropical High Conditions

The cloud variations under subtropical high(STH) conditions during summers over a ten-year period are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.The results reveal that clouds mainly experience an isolated evolution in the STHs,which is designated in this study by the 1540 gpm geopotential lines at 850 hPa.In the STH domain throughout the Northern Hemisphere,the average amount of total clouds exceeds 30%.Low clouds dominate in the STH domain,contributing over 60%of total cloud amount within the Pacific subtropical high and over 40%within the Atlantic subtropical high.The prevalence of low clouds in above regions is determined by the circulation pattern around 150°-180°E and 850 hPa,which suppresses both the upward development of the cloud tops and the water vapor divergences near the surface.Furthermore,clouds present great geographical incoherence within the STH domain.In the eastern STHs,the amount of middle and low clouds increases to peak in the early morning and decreases to a trough in the afternoon,while the amount of high clouds remains stable throughout the day.Conversely,in the western STHs,the diurnal amplitude of low and middle clouds is less than three,while high clouds dramatically reach the maximum in the afternoon and drop to the minimum in the evening.Among the nine cloud categories,stratocumulus clouds with greater optical thickness account for the most under STH conditions,no matter their occurrence or amount,causing more shortwave cloud radiative forcing to cool the local atmosphere and surface as a consequence.     

Extreme precipitation events identified using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in Anhui,China

Extreme weather events include unusual, severe or unseasonal weather, and weather at the extremes of the historical distribution. They have become more frequent and intense under global warming, especially in mid-latitude areas. They bring about great agricultural and economic losses. It is important to define the threshold of extreme weather event because it is the starting point of extreme weather event research, though it has been of seldom concern. Taking extreme precipitation events in Anhui, China as an example, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is introduced to define the threshold of extreme weather events. Based on it, the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme precipitation events are analyzed. Compared to the traditional percentile method, DFA is based on the long-term correlation of time series. Thresholds calculated by DFA are much higher than the 99th percentile and the values are higher in the south and lower in the north. This spatial pattern is similar to the annual precipitation spatial pattern. There is an obvious increasing trend in the number of days with extreme precipitation, especially after the 1980s. This observation supports the point that more extreme events happen under global warming.     

青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系

利用DPS统计中的相关、回归等方法分析近10年青海高原牧区5站点牧草产量变化与气象因子的关系,并建立了牧草产量的气象条件多元回归拟合模型。结果表明：近10年来牧草产量的年最高值河南、甘德总体呈下降趋势,曲麻莱、海北、兴海总体呈上升趋势;5站点牧草产量5月变幅最大为兴海,变幅最小的为海北,6—8月变幅最大的是曲麻莱,变幅最小的是海北;5站点8月牧草产量形成期总体上日照充足,降水除河南阶段性较充沛外,其余受限制,温度除河南在牧草生长季内当光温出现匹配不当时呈负相关外,其余均受限制;气象因子与5站点年最高牧草产量的拟合模式拟合效果较好,均可通过0.01检验。