Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years’ temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0°C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5°C.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.     

福建海坛岛北部海岸带冲积扇沉积构造及其发育模式

海岸带冲积扇作为海陆过渡带中的重要沉积地貌单元,蕴藏有丰富的"陆-海-气"耦合作用及其古地理环境变化信息。本文选取福建海坛岛北部的海岸带冲积扇(大砂山)为研究对象,在大砂山表层布设6条累计长度约700m的探地雷达(GPR)测线,结合剖面观察解译以获取大砂山内部沉积构造和沉积序列信息。结果显示:GPR探测图像很好地显示约20m深度范围内的沉积构造信息,可以识别出9种沉积构造雷达相,这些雷达相总体上反映了海岸带冲积扇以泥石流和沟谷洪流为主、并交替有海岸风沙作用的沉积构造特征。综合三维沉积构造信息可知,大砂山为两个冲积扇侧向连接而成的复合体。结合野外地质地貌考察和砂样粒度分析,认为该冲积扇发育过程可分为四个阶段:(1)晚更新世末次间冰期,海岸带老红砂堆积形成"红色沙漠";(2)晚冰期时频发的暴雨洪水,携带南部山区的风化碎屑物质堆积在海岸带形成了冲积扇主体,并覆盖在老红砂剥蚀面上;(3)全新世早中期气候湿润,河流下切侵蚀冲积扇,形成大砂山基本形态;(4)全新世晚期,全球气候转冷,海岸风沙作用兴起,塑造成为现代大砂山的地貌特征。     

不同数据预处理方法对北斗卫星精密定轨精度的影响

提出综合利用高次差法和多项式拟合法对COMPASS MEO卫星进行周跳探测的原理及实现方法,并采用COMPASS监测站实测数据使用不同的数据预处理策略对COMPASS MEO卫星进行精密定轨试验。结果表明,根据实测数据情况,合理选择周跳探测方法和预处理策略,可以改善定轨精度。     

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????IRNSS?????????????????????????????ξ?????????????????IRNSS?????????????λ????????????????????????????????IRNSS???????????Ч???????????????????????????????IRNSS??????????????????????????????????????????????2 000 km????????????????10 m??????λ????????????????????????????????????PDOPС??6????????????????Ч??????????95%???????????     

肥城市土地综合整治实践探索

通过对肥城市国土资源利用现状的分析,提出了目前肥城市土地资源高效整合利用中存在的三个问题,即人多地少、结构不合理和供需矛盾突出。在土地资源详查的基础上,编制了土地整理专项规划,开展了以"一个挂钩、三大项目、一项改造"为重点的农村土地综合整理工作。有效提高了肥城市的土地资源整合利用水平,大大促进了肥城市的新农村建设。     

A Preliminary Survey of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Associated with Marsh Plants in Lhalu Wetland, Suburban Lhasa, South Tibet

A survey was made of the spore community of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and root colonization by AMF in 16 plant species in Lhalu wetland on the outskirts of Lhasa city in Tibet. It was found that 13 of the 16 plant species investigated (81. 5% ) formed arbuscular mycorrhizal structures and dark septate endophytic fungi colonized the roots of most species. Total AMF colonization ranged from 0 to 82. 6% in dicots and 0 to 54. 5% in monocots. Both total AMF and arbuscular colonization were greater in d...     

真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异:2008年汶川地震监控录像的分析

真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异是应急疏散的统计物理研究中的一个关键问题.本文通过互联网收集和分析了2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震中一些记录到地震时人群疏散的监控录像.这些监控录像不仅为真实地震情况下人员疏散行为的研究提供了目前仍十分稀缺的实例.而且可用于约束紧急情况下人群疏散的统计物理模型.对条件相似的真实地震情况下和模拟演练情况下的疏散人数一疏散时间进行研究,发现出口处的疏散人数和疏散时间呈显著的非线性关系,这与通过模拟演练所得出的线性关系具有明显的差异.     

内蒙古贫困地区生态安全评价及空间格局分析

在压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response, PSR)模型确立指标体系的基础上,采用灰色关联度分析和熵值赋权相结合的方法,测算出2012年内蒙古贫困地区生态安全综合,压力,状态和响应指数,对研究区生态安全状况进行综合评价;并利用地理空间分析方法和空间分析软件GeoDA对生态安全综合状况进行空间相关性分析,同时结合研究区自然地理特征和社会经济状况,对其生态安全空间格局特征及成因进行诊断性分析.研究发现:(1) 内蒙古贫困地区生态安全水平整体处于一般状态,等级布局具有大聚集,小分散的特点;(2) 生态安全状况分布并非完全随机性,而是表现出空间相似值之间的空间聚集,具有正相关性;(3) 生态安全等级分布状况呈现出区域分异的特点,总体表现为内蒙古西部和东部贫困地区处于一般状态,而中部贫困地区生态安全水平整体处于良好状态,区域内部生态安全水平具有明显的县域差异;(4) 生态安全水平较好的县域和生态安全处于一般水平的县域,压力,状态,响应指标方面差距明显,且影响因素各异.     

基于历元间差分模型的精密钟差加密算法研究

提出一种高精度的钟差加密方法。采用历元间差分载波相位观测值,得到高精度历元间相对卫星钟差,并应用这一相对钟差产品对IGS 5 min钟差进行加密,获得30 s采样的“高频度”钟差。与数学插值算法相比,该加密算法有一定的优越性,加密误差在0.03 ns以内,且不同稳定度的星载钟差异较小。