Last glacial pollen record from Lanzhou (Northwestern China) and possible forcing mechanisms for the MIS 3 climate change in Middle to East Asia

The vegetation on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to climatic changes and thus represents a potentially interesting environmental archive. Pollen samples from the Fanjiaping Loess section in Lanzhou on the western Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) were analyzed in conjunction with OSL dating. The results indicate that pollen zone B (60.6–46.0 ka, correlative to the early MIS 3) had the greatest abundances of Cupressaceae, Tsuga, Gramineae and Cyperaceae of the entire section, suggesting a warm phase during the last glacial period. These pollen taxa decreased significantly in abundance in the zones C (46.0–39.0 ka) and D (39.0–27.0 ka), reflecting a substantial climate cooling from the middle MIS 3 to MIS 2. These results correlate with climate records from the South China Sea, the CLP, Baikal Lake, North America, North Atlantic Ocean and other regions, and probably correspond with the decline of northern high-latitude insolation and the increase of global ice volume from 50 to 20 ka. In particular, arboreal pollen, fern spore and algae abundances declined sharply since ～40 ka, while shrub and herb pollen reached the highest abundances. Conifer pollen Picea and Abies abundance also rose markedly and increased up the section. This implies significant climate deterioration and likely corresponded with substantial growth of the polar ice sheets since ～40 ka. The decreasing temperature caused by an insolation decline during the last glacial period probably reinforced the cooling effect in a ‘snow/ice/albedo’ feedback, which would result in less climate sensitivity to radiative forcing. Meanwhile, vegetation decline in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period and tundra development at high latitudes possibly caused additional cooling, enhancing the growth of polar ice sheets since 40 ka. The development of polar ice sheets increased the polar-to-equator temperature and pressure gradients, strengthening the westerlies and supplying plenty of moisture to Northwest China during 40–30 ka. Lake sediments developed widely on the Tibetan Plateau during 40–30 ka, probably related to an increase in the seasonality of middle-to-low latitude insolation which caused an enhancement of glacier melting on the Plateau.     

High-Resolution Mesoscale Analysis Data from the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX): Data Generation and Quality Evaluation

In this study,the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX)from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov).A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas:South China,Central China,Jianghuai area,and Yangtze River Delta area.The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows.First,the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems.The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems.Second,the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data.The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height,temperature,relative humidity,and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors.In particular,the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa,1.0-1.1℃ for temperature,less than 20％ for relative humidity,1.5-2.0 m s-1 for wind speed,and 20°-25° for wind direction.The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability,and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.     

High-Resolution Mesoscale Analysis Data from the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX): Data Generation and Quality Evaluation

In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov). A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas: South China, Cent...     

鄂尔多斯盆地晚古生代沉积岩源区构造背景及物源分析

鄂尔多斯盆地周缘物源均来自上地壳,以长英质岩石为主,主要为太古宇、元古宇的各类变火山-沉积岩组成的古老变质岩系,同时具有一定量的花岗岩和碱性玄武岩的混合,但物源成分及南北源区构造背景有所差异。在常量元素及稀土元素组成上,盆地南北物源区的沉积岩在地区及层位之间存在差异,且该变化符合大洋岛弧→大陆岛弧→活动大陆边缘→被动大陆边缘常量元素、稀土元素以及负Eu异常的变化趋势。常量元素变化分析表明盆地北部物源主要来自板块俯冲碰撞地带,与被动大陆边缘环境和活动大陆边缘环境相关,少数为与活动大陆边缘相关的岛弧构造环境有关,到晚古生代中晚期才逐渐与被动大陆边缘环境和活动大陆边缘环境相关。稀土元素对比分析表明,盆地北部物源与太古宙、元古宙的花岗片麻岩、闪长片麻岩、二长花岗岩、变余岩屑砂岩及千枚岩具有亲源性;而盆地南部早—中二叠世长期受被动大陆边缘物源影响,具有高SiO2,低Na2O的特征,这与太古宙—元古宙的太华群、秦岭群、宽坪群等岩系的高SiO2含量,K2O/Na2O>1的特征一致,到晚古生代后期,逐渐与活动大陆边缘物源相关。北秦岭晚古生代山间盆地具有快速混杂堆积的沉积特点,属于盆地外缘,并与鄂尔多斯盆地呈连续过渡的状况,物源上具有继承关系;盆地晚古生代沉积岩中Gd含量及(Gd/Yb)N比值具有随时间迁移的特征,分析表明北部物源区在太原期处于构造快速活动期,而南部物源从山西期才开始进入快速活动期,这与区域构造演化背景一致,即北部物源区抬升要早于南部。     

基于水文模型的雷达监测降雨量误差传递研究

基于多普勒雷达和相应的雨量计资料,利用卡尔曼滤波校准法对分组Z~I关系估算的雷达降雨进行同化,结合新安江模型,提出采用增长模繁殖法对雷达监测降雨量资料进行扰动,定量分析了模型输入误差对径流模拟的影响。经过湖北省白莲河流域的实际应用研究表明,卡尔曼滤波校准法估算降水量的精度比Z~I关系法有了明显的提高,其相应的洪水预报效果也都优于Z~I关系;提出的增长模繁殖法对雷达监测降雨量资料产生的扰动输入误差在经过模型的传递后有增大的趋势。     

涪江流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法分析了涪江流域实测径流量的变化趋势,根据假定的气候变化情景和HADCM3预估的气候情景,利用考虑融雪的水量平衡模型(SWBM模型)分析了径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:涪江流域径流量总体呈现递减趋势,但非汛期的个别月份有增加趋势,实测年径流变化主要是由于气候要素变化引起的,流域内的水电开发对径流量的季节分配存在一定的影响。SWBM模型对涪江流域月流量过程具有较好的模拟效果,实测与模拟径流量总体较为吻合,只有个别年份峰值模拟误差相对较大。气温变化固定的情况下,降水变化与径流变化之间的关系接近线性;在降水变化相同的情况下,单位气温变幅引起的径流量变化幅度也基本相当。尽管不同排放情景下涪江流域径流量的变化有一定差异,但总体来看,未来水资源可能以偏少为主,特别是2030年以后,多年平均偏少量将可能超过5%。     

中更新世早中期以来黄河上游与三峡库区滑坡形成机理与气候变化关系研究

气候变化对滑坡的影响关系研究是近年来滑坡灾害研究的热点问题之一。本研究以我国中更新世早中期以来黄河上游和三峡库区的滑坡为研究对象,分析了其发育期与气候变化的对应关系以及气候演变对滑坡发育的作用机理。研究认为: 1）大型古滑坡在时空分布上具有明显的多期性和时段性,大区域滑坡的广泛发育与全球古环境变化的暖湿间冰期之间呈现良好的对应关系。2）黄河上游龙羊峡-刘家峡段干流区内共发育有3期滑坡,其中早期滑坡多披覆于黄河Ⅲ～Ⅳ级阶地,光释光年龄显示其发生于MIS3时期;  晚期滑坡多披覆于黄河Ⅱ级阶地,发育于MIS1时期;  现代滑坡披覆于黄河Ⅰ级阶地,多为早期滑坡前缘因人类工程活动诱发的次级滑坡。3）三峡库区中更新世早中期以来主要发育了3期古滑坡,并以深海氧同位素的MIS5和MIS3为最多,尤其是中更新世晚期以来,滑坡数量明显增加,延续时间明显增长。     

基于SRTM天气雷达净空环境评估算法误差分析

采用航天飞机雷达地形测绘使命(SRTM)高程数据对天气雷达净空环境进行评估,可有效提高雷达选址评估效率。利用人工测量数据和SRTM数据进行天气雷达净空环境评估对比试验,结果表明基于该数据的天气雷达净空环境评估算法总体与人工测量方法具有较好的一致性。采用方位矫正和距离矫正算法后,基于该数据的天气雷达净空环境评估算法精度明显提高。